In Gauteng, where the omicron variant was first identified, two thirds of unvaccinated residents were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2, which indicates past infection. Omicron peaked just 1 month after ...being detected; hospitalizations and deaths did not increase in proportion to cases. Whether this change is related to widespread preexisting immunity or to features of the virus is unclear.
We conducted an epidemiologic survey to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) and anti-spike (anti-S) protein IgG from 1 March to 11 April 2022 after the BA.1-dominant ...wave had subsided in South Africa and prior to another wave dominated by the BA.4 and BA.5 (BA.4/BA.5) sub-lineages. We also analysed epidemiologic trends in Gauteng Province for cases, hospitalizations, recorded deaths, and excess deaths were evaluated from the inception of the pandemic through 17 November 2022. Despite only 26.7% (1995/7470) of individuals having received a COVID-19 vaccine, the overall seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI), 90.2 to 91.5) at the end of the BA.1 wave, and 64% (95% CI, 61.8 to 65.9) of individuals were infected during the BA.1-dominant wave. The SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk was 16.5-22.3 times lower in the BA.1-dominant wave compared with the pre-BA.1 waves for recorded deaths (0.02% vs. 0.33%) and estimated excess mortality (0.03% vs. 0.67%). Although there are ongoing cases of COVID-19 infections, hospitalization and death, there has not been any meaningful resurgence of COVID-19 since the BA.1-dominant wave despite only 37.8% coverage by at least a single dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Gauteng, South Africa.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
People living with HIV are at an increased risk of fatal outcome when admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19 compared with HIV-negative individuals. We aimed to assess safety and immunogenicity of ...the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in people with HIV and HIV-negative individuals in South Africa.
In this ongoing, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1B/2A trial (COV005), people with HIV and HIV-negative participants aged 18–65 years were enrolled at seven South African locations and were randomly allocated (1:1) with full allocation concealment to receive a prime-boost regimen of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, with two doses given 28 days apart. Eligibility criteria for people with HIV included being on antiretroviral therapy for at least 3 months, with a plasma HIV viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. In this interim analysis, safety and reactogenicity was assessed in all individuals who received at least one dose of ChAdOx1 nCov 19 between enrolment and Jan 15, 2021. Primary immunogenicity analyses included participants who received two doses of trial intervention and were SARS-CoV-2 seronegative at baseline. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04444674, and the Pan African Clinicals Trials Registry, PACTR202006922165132.
Between June 24 and Nov 12, 2020, 104 people with HIV and 70 HIV-negative individuals were enrolled. 102 people with HIV (52 vaccine; 50 placebo) and 56 HIV-negative participants (28 vaccine; 28 placebo) received the priming dose, 100 people with HIV (51 vaccine; 49 placebo) and 46 HIV-negative participants (24 vaccine; 22 placebo) received two doses (priming and booster). In participants seronegative for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline, there were 164 adverse events in those with HIV (86 vaccine; 78 placebo) and 237 in HIV-negative participants (95 vaccine; 142 placebo). Of seven serious adverse events, one severe fever in a HIV-negative participant was definitely related to trial intervention and one severely elevated alanine aminotranferase in a participant with HIV was unlikely related; five others were deemed unrelated. One HIV-negative participant died (unlikely related). People with HIV and HIV-negative participants showed vaccine-induced serum IgG responses against wild-type Wuhan-1 Asp614Gly (also known as D614G). For participants seronegative for SARS-CoV-2 antigens at baseline, full-length spike geometric mean concentration (GMC) at day 28 was 163·7 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (95% CI 89·9–298·1) for people with HIV (n=36) and 112·3 BAU/mL (61·7–204·4) for HIV-negative participants (n=23), with a rising day 42 GMC booster response in both groups. Baseline SARS-CoV-2 seropositive people with HIV demonstrated higher antibody responses after each vaccine dose than did people with HIV who were seronegative at baseline. High-level binding antibody cross-reactivity for the full-length spike and receptor-binding domain of the beta variant (B.1.351) was seen regardless of HIV status. In people with HIV who developed high titre responses, predominantly those who were receptor-binding domain seropositive at enrolment, neutralising activity against beta was retained.
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 was well tolerated, showing favourable safety and immunogenicity in people with HIV, including heightened immunogenicity in SARS-CoV-2 baseline-seropositive participants. People with HIV showed cross-reactive binding antibodies to the beta variant and Asp614Gly wild-type, and high responders retained neutralisation against beta.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, UK National Institute for Health Research, and the South African Medical Research Council.
COVID-19 vaccine rollout is lagging in Africa, where there has been a high rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to evaluate the effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination with the ...ChAdOx-nCoV19 (AZD1222) vaccine on antibody responses through to 180 days.
We did an unmasked post-hoc immunogenicity analysis after the first and second doses of AZD1222 in a randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 1b–2a study done in seven locations in South Africa. AZD1222 recipients who were HIV-uninfected, were stratified into baseline seropositive or seronegative groups using the serum anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) immunoglobulin G (IgG) electroluminescence immunoassay to establish SARS-CoV-2 infection before the first dose of AZD1222. Binding IgG to spike (anti-S) and receptor binding domain (anti-RBD) were measured before the first dose (day 0), second dose (day 28), day 42, and day 180. Neutralising antibody (NAb) against SARS-CoV-2 variants D614G, beta, delta, gamma, and A.VOI.V2, and omicron BA1 and BA.4 variants, were measured by pseudovirus assay (day 28, day 42, and day 180). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04444674, and the Pan African Clinicals Trials Registry, PACTR202006922165132.
Of 185 individuals who were randomly assigned to AZD1222, we included 91 individuals who were baseline seropositive and 58 who were baseline seronegative, in the final analysis. In the seropositive group, there was little change of anti-S IgG (and anti-RBD IgG) or neutralising antibody (NAb) titres at day 42 compared with at day 28. Anti-S (and anti-RBD) IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) were higher throughout in the seropositive compared with the seronegative group, including at day 180 (GMCs 517·8 95% CI 411·3–651·9 vs 82·1 55·2–122·3 BAU/mL). Also D614G NAb geometric mean titres (GMTs) were higher in the seropositive group than the seronegative group, as was the percentage with titres of at least 185 (80% putative risk reduction threshold PRRT against wild-type–alpha COVID-19), including at day 180 (92·0% 74·0–99·0 vs 18·2% 2·3–51·8). Similar findings were observed for beta, A.VOI.V2, and gamma. For delta, BA.1, and BA.4, NAb GMTs and the proportion with titres above the PRRT were substantially higher in the seropositive compared with seronegative group at day 28 and day 42, but no longer differed between the groups by day 180.
A single dose of AZD1222 in the general African population, where COVID-19 vaccine coverage is low and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity is 90%, could enhance the magnitude and quality of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Medical Research Council, the UK Research and Innovation, the UK National Institute for Health Research, and the South African Medical Research Council.
For the Zulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This study aimed to investigate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific T-cell responses 14 days after single-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccination in black ...Africans with and without HIV in South Africa, as well as determine the effect of AZD1222 vaccination on cell-mediated immune responses in people with HIV (PWH) with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.
A total of 70 HIV-uninfected people and 104 PWH were prospectively enrolled in the multicentre, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, phase Ib/IIa trial (COV005). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were collected from trial participants 14 days after receipt of first dose of study treatment (placebo or AZD1222 vaccine). T-cell responses against the full-length spike (FLS) glycoprotein of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and mutated S-protein regions found in the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants were assessed using an ex-vivo ELISpot assay.
Among AZD1222 recipients without preceding SARS-CoV-2 infection, T-cell responses to FLS of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 were similarly common in PWH and HIV-uninfected people (30/33, 90.9% vs. 16/21, 76.2%; P = 0.138); and magnitude of response was similar among responders (78 vs. 56 SFCs/106 PBMCs; P = 0.255). Among PWH, AZD1222 vaccinees with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, displayed a heightened T-cell response magnitude compared with those without prior infection (186 vs. 78 SFCs/106 PBMCs; P = 0.001); and similar response rate (14/14, 100% vs. 30/33, 90.9%; P = 0.244).
Our results indicate comparable T-cell responses following AZD1222 vaccination in HIV-uninfected people and PWH on stable antiretroviral therapy. Our results additionally show that hybrid immunity acquired through SARS-CoV-2 infection and AZD1222 vaccination, induce a heightened T-cell response.
Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide ...emissions
. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades
. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests
. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature
. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass
reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.
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FZAB, GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern ...Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha
y
) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of recent advancements in
leveraging machine learning techniques, particularly Transformer models, for
predicting human mobility patterns during epidemics. ...Understanding how people
move during epidemics is essential for modeling the spread of diseases and
devising effective response strategies. Forecasting population movement is
crucial for informing epidemiological models and facilitating effective
response planning in public health emergencies. Predicting mobility patterns
can enable authorities to better anticipate the geographical and temporal
spread of diseases, allocate resources more efficiently, and implement targeted
interventions. We review a range of approaches utilizing both pretrained
language models like BERT and Large Language Models (LLMs) tailored
specifically for mobility prediction tasks. These models have demonstrated
significant potential in capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies and
contextual patterns in textual data.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing various fields, including
public health surveillance. In Africa, where health systems frequently
encounter challenges such as limited resources, ...inadequate infrastructure,
failed health information systems and a shortage of skilled health
professionals, AI offers a transformative opportunity. This paper investigates
the applications of AI in public health surveillance across the continent,
presenting successful case studies and examining the benefits, opportunities,
and challenges of implementing AI technologies in African healthcare settings.
Our paper highlights AI's potential to enhance disease monitoring and health
outcomes, and support effective public health interventions. The findings
presented in the paper demonstrate that AI can significantly improve the
accuracy and timeliness of disease detection and prediction, optimize resource
allocation, and facilitate targeted public health strategies. Additionally, our
paper identified key barriers to the widespread adoption of AI in African
public health systems and proposed actionable recommendations to overcome these
challenges.
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