Detection of lung cancer at an early stage by sensitive screening tests could be an important strategy to improving prognosis. Our objective was to identify a panel of circulating microRNAs in plasma ...that will contribute to early detection of lung cancer.
Plasma samples from 100 early stage (I to IIIA) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients and 100 non-cancer controls were screened for 754 circulating microRNAs via qRT-PCR, using TaqMan MicroRNA Arrays. Logistic regression with a lasso penalty was used to select a panel of microRNAs that discriminate between cases and controls. Internal validation of model discrimination was conducted by calculating the bootstrap optimism-corrected AUC for the selected model.
We identified a panel of 24 microRNAs with optimum classification performance. The combination of these 24 microRNAs alone could discriminate lung cancer cases from non-cancer controls with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.87-0.95). This classification improved to an AUC of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.97) following addition of sex, age and smoking status to the model. Internal validation of the model suggests that the discriminatory power of the panel will be high when applied to independent samples with a corrected AUC of 0.78 for the 24-miRNA panel alone.
Our 24-microRNA predictor improves lung cancer prediction beyond that of known risk factors.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Purpose Several lung cancer risk prediction models have been developed, but none to date have assessed the predictive ability of lung function in a population-based cohort. We sought to develop and ...internally validate a model incorporating lung function using data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study. Methods This analysis included 502,321 participants without a previous diagnosis of lung cancer, predominantly between 40 and 70 years of age. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate the 2-year probability of lung cancer, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models included predictors previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk, including sex, variables related to smoking history and nicotine addiction, medical history, family history of lung cancer, and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second FEV1). Results During accumulated follow-up of 1,469,518 person-years, there were 738 lung cancer diagnoses. A model incorporating all predictors had excellent discrimination (concordance (c)-statistic 95% CI = 0.85 0.82 to 0.87). Internal validation suggested that the model will discriminate well when applied to new data (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.84). The full model, including FEV1, also had modestly superior discriminatory power than one that was designed solely on the basis of questionnaire variables (c-statistic = 0.84 0.82 to 0.86; optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.83; p
= 3.4 × 10
). The full model had better discrimination than standard lung cancer screening eligibility criteria (c-statistic = 0.66 0.64 to 0.69). Conclusion A risk prediction model that includes lung function has strong predictive ability, which could improve eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening programs.
IMPORTANCE: The incremental value of polygenic risk scores in addition to well-established risk prediction models for coronary artery disease (CAD) is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether a ...polygenic risk score for CAD improves risk prediction beyond pooled cohort equations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational study of UK Biobank participants enrolled from 2006 to 2010. A case-control sample of 15 947 prevalent CAD cases and equal number of age and sex frequency–matched controls was used to optimize the predictive performance of a polygenic risk score for CAD based on summary statistics from published genome-wide association studies. A separate cohort of 352 660 individuals (with follow-up to 2017) was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the polygenic risk score, pooled cohort equations, and both combined for incident CAD. EXPOSURES: Polygenic risk score for CAD, pooled cohort equations, and both combined. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: CAD (myocardial infarction and its related sequelae). Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification using a risk threshold of 7.5% were assessed. RESULTS: In the cohort of 352 660 participants (mean age, 55.9 years; 205 297 women 58.2%) used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the examined models, there were 6272 incident CAD events over a median of 8 years of follow-up. CAD discrimination for polygenic risk score, pooled cohort equations, and both combined resulted in C statistics of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.62), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.77), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.79), respectively. The change in C statistic between the latter 2 models was 0.02 (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.03). Calibration of the models showed overestimation of risk by pooled cohort equations, which was corrected after recalibration. Using a risk threshold of 7.5%, addition of the polygenic risk score to pooled cohort equations resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 4.4% (95% CI, 3.5% to 5.3%) for cases and −0.4% (95% CI, −0.5% to −0.4%) for noncases (overall net reclassification improvement, 4.0% 95% CI, 3.1% to 4.9%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The addition of a polygenic risk score for CAD to pooled cohort equations was associated with a statistically significant, yet modest, improvement in the predictive accuracy for incident CAD and improved risk stratification for only a small proportion of individuals. The use of genetic information over the pooled cohort equations model warrants further investigation before clinical implementation.
During the COVID-19 lockdown, referrals via the 2-week-wait urgent pathway for suspected cancer in England, UK, are reported to have decreased by up to 84%. We aimed to examine the impact of ...different scenarios of lockdown-accumulated backlog in cancer referrals on cancer survival, and the impact on survival per referred patient due to delayed referral versus risk of death from nosocomial infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
In this modelling study, we used age-stratified and stage-stratified 10-year cancer survival estimates for patients in England, UK, for 20 common tumour types diagnosed in 2008–17 at age 30 years and older from Public Health England. We also used data for cancer diagnoses made via the 2-week-wait referral pathway in 2013–16 from the Cancer Waiting Times system from NHS Digital. We applied per-day hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer progression that we generated from observational studies of delay to treatment. We quantified the annual numbers of cancers at stage I–III diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway using 2-week-wait age-specific and stage-specific breakdowns. From these numbers, we estimated the aggregate number of lives and life-years lost in England for per-patient delays of 1–6 months in presentation, diagnosis, or cancer treatment, or a combination of these. We assessed three scenarios of a 3-month period of lockdown during which 25%, 50%, and 75% of the normal monthly volumes of symptomatic patients delayed their presentation until after lockdown. Using referral-to-diagnosis conversion rates and COVID-19 case-fatality rates, we also estimated the survival increment per patient referred.
Across England in 2013–16, an average of 6281 patients with stage I–III cancer were diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway per month, of whom 1691 (27%) would be predicted to die within 10 years from their disease. Delays in presentation via the 2-week-wait pathway over a 3-month lockdown period (with an average presentational delay of 2 months per patient) would result in 181 additional lives and 3316 life-years lost as a result of a backlog of referrals of 25%, 361 additional lives and 6632 life-years lost for a 50% backlog of referrals, and 542 additional lives and 9948 life-years lost for a 75% backlog in referrals. Compared with all diagnostics for the backlog being done in month 1 after lockdown, additional capacity across months 1–3 would result in 90 additional lives and 1662 live-years lost due to diagnostic delays for the 25% backlog scenario, 183 additional lives and 3362 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 276 additional lives and 5075 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. However, a delay in additional diagnostic capacity with provision spread across months 3–8 after lockdown would result in 401 additional lives and 7332 life-years lost due to diagnostic delays under the 25% backlog scenario, 811 additional lives and 14 873 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 1231 additional lives and 22 635 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. A 2-month delay in 2-week-wait investigatory referrals results in an estimated loss of between 0·0 and 0·7 life-years per referred patient, depending on age and tumour type.
Prompt provision of additional capacity to address the backlog of diagnostics will minimise deaths as a result of diagnostic delays that could add to those predicted due to expected presentational delays. Prioritisation of patient groups for whom delay would result in most life-years lost warrants consideration as an option for mitigating the aggregate burden of mortality in patients with cancer.
None.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Obesity has been positively associated with upper gastrointestinal cancers, but prospective data by subtype/subsite are limited. Obesity influences hormonal factors, which may play a role in these ...cancers. We examined anthropometry, body fat and reproductive factors in relation to oesophageal and gastric cancer by subtype/subsite in the UK Biobank cohort.
Among 458,713 UK Biobank participants, 339 oesophageal adenocarcinomas, 124 oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 137 gastric cardia and 92 gastric non-cardia cancers were diagnosed during a mean of 6.5 years follow-up. Cox models estimated multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Body mass index (BMI), hip circumference, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, total body fat and trunk fat were positively associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (highest vs lowest category: HR = 2.33, 95%-CI:1.65-3.28; HR = 1.56, 95%-CI:1.15-2.13; HR = 2.30, 95%-CI:1.47-3.57; HR = 1.71, 95%-CI:1.01-2.90; HR = 2.87, 95%-CI:1.88-4.38; HR = 1.96, 95%-CI:1.30-2.96; HR = 2.34, 95%-CI:1.70-3.22, respectively). Although there were no statistically significant associations in combined sex analyses, BMI (HR = 1.83, 95%-CI:1.00-3.37), waist circumference (HR = 2.21, 95%-CI:1.27-3.84) and waist-to-hip ratio (HR = 1.92, 95%-CI:1.11-3.29) were associated with gastric cardia cancer in men; however, mutual adjustment attenuated the associations for BMI and waist-to-hip ratio. For oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, statistically significant inverse associations were observed among women for BMI, hip circumference, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, total body fat and trunk fat, although they were based on small numbers. In addition, older age at first (HR = 0.44, 95%-CI:0.22-0.88) and last live birth (HR = 0.44, 95%-CI:0.22-0.87) were inversely associated with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and having a stillbirth/miscarriage/termination was positively associated (HR = 1.84, 95%-CI:1.10-3.07).
Obesity and abdominal obesity specifically may be a risk factor for oesophageal adenocarcinoma and gastric cardia cancer in men. Some reproductive factors may be associated with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in women.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second most common cause of cancer death worldwide, but is still lacking sensitive and specific biomarkers for early diagnosis and prognosis. In this study, we ...applied targeted massively parallel semiconductor sequencing to assess methylation on a panel of genes (FBLN1, HINT2, LAMC1, LTBP1, LTBP2, PSMA2, PSMA7, PXDN, TGFB1, UBE2L3, VIM and YWHAZ) in plasma circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and to evaluate the potential of these genes as HCC biomarkers in two different series, one from France (42 HCC cases and 42 controls) and one from Thailand (42 HCC cases, 26 chronic liver disease cases and 42 controls). We also analyzed a set of HCC and adjacent tissues and liver cell lines to further compare with 'The Cancer Genome Atlas' (TCGA) data. The methylation in cfDNA was detected for FBLN1, PSMA7, PXDN and VIM, with differences in methylation patterns between cases and controls for FBLN1 and VIM. The average methylation level across analyzed CpG-sites was associated with higher odds of HCC for VIM (1.48 1.02, 2.16 for French cases and 2.18 1.28, 3.72 for Thai cases), and lower odds of HCC for FBLN1 (0.89 0.76, 1.03 for French cases and 0.75 0.63, 0.88 for Thai cases). In conclusion, our study provides evidence that changes in VIM and FBLN1 methylation levels in cfDNA are associated with HCC and could represent useful plasma-based biomarkers. Also, the potential to investigate methylation patterns in cfDNA could bring new strategies for HCC detection and monitoring high-risk groups and response to treatment.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) show promise for applications as high-quality self-emissive displays for portable devices such as cellular phones and personal organizers. Although monochrome ...operation is sufficient for some applications, the extension to multi-colour devices-such as RGB (red, green, blue) matrix displays-could greatly enhance their technological impact. Multi-colour OLEDs have been successfully fabricated by vacuum deposition of small electroluminescent molecules, but solution processing of larger molecules (electroluminescent polymers) would result in a cheaper and simpler manufacturing process. However, it has proved difficult to combine the solution processing approach with the high-resolution patterning techniques required to produce a pixelated display. Recent attempts have focused on the modification of standard printing techniques, such as screen printing and ink jetting, but those still have technical drawbacks. Here we report a class of electroluminescent polymers that can be patterned in a way similar to standard photoresist materials-soluble polymers with oxetane sidegroups that can be crosslinked photochemically to produce insoluble polymer networks in desired areas. The resolution of the process is sufficient to fabricate pixelated matrix displays. Consecutive deposition of polymers that are luminescent in each of the three RGB colours yielded a device with efficiencies comparable to state-of-the-art OLEDs and even slightly reduced onset voltages.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models could be used to risk-stratify the population to provide individually tailored screening provision. Using participants from the UK Biobank prospective ...cohort study, we evaluated whether the addition of a genetic risk score (GRS) could improve the performance of two previously validated models. Inclusion of the GRS did not appreciably improve discrimination of either model, and led to substantial miscalibration. Following recalibration the discrimination did not change, but good calibration for models incorporating the GRS was recovered. Comparing predictions between models with and without the GRS, 5% of participants or fewer changed their absolute risk by ±0.3% or more in either model. In summary, addition of a GRS did not meaningfully improve the performance of validated CRC-risk prediction models. At present, provision of genetic information is not useful for risk stratification for CRC.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Several laboratory experiments have published limits on axionlike particles (ALPs) with feeble couplings to electrons and masses in the kilo-electron-volt to mega-electron-volt range, under the ...assumption that such ALPs comprise the dark matter. We note that ALPs decay radiatively into photons, and show that for a large subset of the parameter space ostensibly probed by these experiments, the lifetime of the ALPs is shorter than the age of the Universe. Such ALPs cannot consistently make up the dark matter, which significantly affects the interpretation of published limits from GERDA, Edelweiss-III, SuperCDMS, and Majorana. Moreover, constraints from x-ray and γ-ray astronomy exclude a wide range of the ALP-electron coupling, and supersede all current laboratory limits on dark matter ALPs in the 6 keV to 1 MeV mass range. These conclusions are rather model independent, and can only be avoided at the expense of significant fine-tuning in theories where the ALP has additional couplings to other particles.
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CMK, CTK, FMFMET, IJS, NUK, PNG, UL, UM
To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent ...from the COVID-19 pandemic.
We modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2-6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19-related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008-2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval.
Delay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk-benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%.
Delays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required.
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