INTRODUCTION: Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and results in a high economic burden. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by US county ...from 29 cancers. DESIGN AND SETTING: Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the Census Bureau, the NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 to 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from 29 cancers: lip and oral cavity; nasopharynx; other pharynx; esophageal; stomach; colon and rectum; liver; gallbladder and biliary; pancreatic; larynx; tracheal, bronchus, and lung; malignant skin melanoma; nonmelanoma skin cancer; breast; cervical; uterine; ovarian; prostate; testicular; kidney; bladder; brain and nervous system; thyroid; mesothelioma; Hodgkin lymphoma; non-Hodgkin lymphoma; multiple myeloma; leukemia; and all other cancers combined. EXPOSURE: County of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Age-standardized cancer mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cancer type. RESULTS: A total of 19 511 910 cancer deaths were recorded in the United States between 1980 and 2014, including 5 656 423 due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer; 2 484 476 due to colon and rectum cancer; 1 573 593 due to breast cancer; 1 077 030 due to prostate cancer; 1 157 878 due to pancreatic cancer; 209 314 due to uterine cancer; 421 628 due to kidney cancer; 487 518 due to liver cancer; 13 927 due to testicular cancer; and 829 396 due to non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Cancer mortality decreased by 20.1% (95% uncertainty interval UI, 18.2%-21.4%) between 1980 and 2014, from 240.2 (95% UI, 235.8-244.1) to 192.0 (95% UI, 188.6-197.7) deaths per 100 000 population. There were large differences in the mortality rate among counties throughout the period: in 1980, cancer mortality ranged from 130.6 (95% UI, 114.7-146.0) per 100 000 population in Summit County, Colorado, to 386.9 (95% UI, 330.5-450.7) in North Slope Borough, Alaska, and in 2014 from 70.7 (95% UI, 63.2-79.0) in Summit County, Colorado, to 503.1 (95% UI, 464.9-545.4) in Union County, Florida. For many cancers, there were distinct clusters of counties with especially high mortality. The location of these clusters varied by type of cancer and were spread in different regions of the United States. Clusters of breast cancer were present in the southern belt and along the Mississippi River, while liver cancer was high along the Texas-Mexico border, and clusters of kidney cancer were observed in North and South Dakota and counties in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Alaska, and Illinois. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer mortality declined overall in the United States between 1980 and 2014. Over this same period, there were important changes in trends, patterns, and differences in cancer mortality among US counties. These patterns may inform further research into improving prevention and treatment.
Hypertension is an important and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality. Over the last decade, national-levels of controlled hypertension have increased, but little ...information on hypertension prevalence and trends in hypertension treatment and control exists at the county-level. We estimate trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in five two-year waves from 1999-2008 including 26,349 adults aged 30 years and older and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1997-2009 including 1,283,722 adults aged 30 years and older. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) of at least 140 mm Hg, self-reported use of antihypertensive treatment, or both. Hypertension control was defined as systolic BP less than 140 mm Hg. The median prevalence of total hypertension in 2009 was estimated at 37.6% (range: 26.5 to 54.4%) in men and 40.1% (range: 28.5 to 57.9%) in women. Within-state differences in the county prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension were as high as 7.8 percentage points in 2009. Awareness, treatment, and control was highest in the southeastern US, and increased between 2001 and 2009 on average. The median county-level control in men was 57.7% (range: 43.4 to 65.9%) and in women was 57.1% (range: 43.0 to 65.46%) in 2009, with highest rates in white men and black women. While control of hypertension is on the rise, prevalence of total hypertension continues to increase in the US. Concurrent increases in treatment and control of hypertension are promising, but efforts to decrease the prevalence of hypertension are needed.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Multiple sclerosis is the most common inflammatory neurological disease in young adults. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic method of ...quantifying various effects of a given condition by demographic variables and geography. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global burden of multiple sclerosis and its relationship with country development level.
We assessed the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2016. Epidemiological outcomes for multiple sclerosis were modelled with DisMod-MR version 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression framework widely used in GBD epidemiological modelling. Assessment of multiple sclerosis as the cause of death was based on 13 110 site-years of vital registration data analysed in the GBD's cause of death ensemble modelling module, which is designed to choose the optimum combination of mathematical models and predictive covariates based on out-of-sample predictive validity testing. Data on prevalence and deaths are summarised in the indicator, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), which was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with a disability. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a composite indicator of income per person, years of education, and fertility, to assess relations with development level.
In 2016, there were 2 221 188 prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis (95% uncertainty interval UI 2 033 866–2 436 858) globally, which corresponded to a 10·4% (9·1 to 11·8) increase in the age-standardised prevalence since 1990. The highest age-standardised multiple sclerosis prevalence estimates per 100 000 population were in high-income North America (164·6, 95% UI, 153·2 to 177·1), western Europe (127·0, 115·4 to 139·6), and Australasia (91·1, 81·5 to 101·7), and the lowest were in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (3·3, 2·9–3·8), central sub-Saharan African (2·8, 2·4 to 3·1), and Oceania (2·0, 1·71 to 2·29). There were 18 932 deaths due to multiple sclerosis (95% UI 16 577 to 21 033) and 1 151 478 DALYs (968 605 to 1 345 776) due to multiple sclerosis in 2016. Globally, age-standardised death rates decreased significantly (change −11·5%, 95% UI −35·4 to −4·7), whereas the change in age-standardised DALYs was not significant (−4·2%, −16·4 to 0·8). YLLs due to premature death were greatest in the sixth decade of life (22·05, 95% UI 19·08 to 25·34). Changes in age-standardised DALYs assessed with the Socio-demographic Index between 1990 and 2016 were variable.
Multiple sclerosis is not common but is a potentially severe cause of neurological disability throughout adult life. Prevalence has increased substantially in many regions since 1990. These findings will be useful for resource allocation and planning in health services. Many regions worldwide have few or no epidemiological data on multiple sclerosis, and more studies are needed to make more accurate estimates.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Summary Background Estimation of the number and rate of deaths by age and sex is a key first stage for calculation of the burden of disease in order to constrain estimates of cause-specific mortality ...and to measure premature mortality in populations. We aimed to estimate life tables and annual numbers of deaths for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010. Methods We estimated trends in under-5 mortality rate (children aged 0–4 years) and probability of adult death (15–59 years) for each country with all available data. Death registration data were available for more than 100 countries and we corrected for undercount with improved death distribution methods. We applied refined methods to survey data on sibling survival that correct for survivor, zero-sibling, and recall bias. We separately estimated mortality from natural disasters and wars. We generated final estimates of under-5 mortality and adult mortality from the data with Gaussian process regression. We used these results as input parameters in a relational model life table system. We developed a model to extrapolate mortality to 110 years of age. All death rates and numbers have been estimated with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). Findings From 1970 to 2010, global male life expectancy at birth increased from 56·4 years (95% UI 55·5–57·2) to 67·5 years (66·9–68·1) and global female life expectancy at birth increased from 61·2 years (60·2–62·0) to 73·3 years (72·8–73·8). Life expectancy at birth rose by 3–4 years every decade from 1970, apart from during the 1990s (increase in male life expectancy of 1·4 years and in female life expectancy of 1·6 years). Substantial reductions in mortality occurred in eastern and southern sub-Saharan Africa since 2004, coinciding with increased coverage of antiretroviral therapy and preventive measures against malaria. Sex-specific changes in life expectancy from 1970 to 2010 ranged from gains of 23–29 years in the Maldives and Bhutan to declines of 1–7 years in Belarus, Lesotho, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe. Globally, 52·8 million (95% UI 51·6–54·1 million) deaths occurred in 2010, which is about 13·5% more than occurred in 1990 (46·5 million 45·7–47·4 million), and 21·9% more than occurred in 1970 (43·3 million 42·2–44·6 million). Proportionally more deaths in 2010 occurred at age 70 years and older (42·8% in 2010 vs 33·1% in 1990), and 22·9% occurred at 80 years or older. Deaths in children younger than 5 years declined by almost 60% since 1970 (16·4 million 16·1–16·7 million in 1970 vs 6·8 million 6·6–7·1 million in 2010), especially at ages 1–59 months (10·8 million 10·4–11·1 million in 1970 vs 4·0 million 3·8–4·2 million in 2010). In all regions, including those most affected by HIV/AIDS, we noted increases in mean ages at death. Interpretation Despite global and regional health crises, global life expectancy has increased continuously and substantially in the past 40 years. Yet substantial heterogeneity exists across age groups, among countries, and over different decades. 179 of 187 countries have had increases in life expectancy after the slowdown in progress in the 1990s. Efforts should be directed to reduce mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Potential underestimation of achievement of the Millennium Development Goal 4 might result from limitations of demographic data on child mortality for the most recent time period. Improvement of civil registration system worldwide is crucial for better tracking of global mortality. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
IMPORTANCE: Substance use disorders, including alcohol use disorders and drug use disorders, and intentional injuries, including self-harm and interpersonal violence, are important causes of early ...death and disability in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence in the United States. DESIGN AND SETTING: Validated small-area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence. EXPOSURES: County of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Age-standardized mortality rates by US county (N = 3110), year, sex, and cause. RESULTS: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 2 848 768 deaths due to substance use disorders and intentional injuries recorded in the United States. Mortality rates from alcohol use disorders (n = 256 432), drug use disorders (n = 542 501), self-harm (n = 1 289 086), and interpersonal violence (n = 760 749) varied widely among counties. Mortality rates decreased for alcohol use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence at the national level between 1980 and 2014; however, over the same period, the percentage of counties in which mortality rates increased for these causes was 65.4% for alcohol use disorders, 74.6% for self-harm, and 6.6% for interpersonal violence. Mortality rates from drug use disorders increased nationally and in every county between 1980 and 2014, but the relative increase varied from 8.2% to 8369.7%. Relative and absolute geographic inequalities in mortality, as measured by comparing the 90th and 10th percentile among counties, decreased for alcohol use disorders and interpersonal violence but increased substantially for drug use disorders and self-harm between 1980 and 2014. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality due to alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence varied widely among US counties, both in terms of levels of mortality and trends. These estimates may be useful to inform efforts to target prevention, diagnosis, and treatment to improve health and reduce inequalities.
Summary Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study assesses health losses from diseases, injuries, and risk factors using disability-adjusted life-years, which need a set of disability ...weights to quantify health levels associated with non-fatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to estimate disability weights for the GBD 2013 study. Methods We analysed data from new web-based surveys of participants aged 18–65 years, completed in four European countries (Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden) between Sept 23, 2013, and Nov 11, 2013, combined with data previously collected in the GBD 2010 disability weights measurement study. Surveys used paired comparison questions for which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different health states and specified which person they deemed healthier than the other. These surveys covered 183 health states pertinent to GBD 2013; of these states, 30 were presented with descriptions revised from previous versions and 18 were new to GBD 2013. We analysed paired comparison data using probit regression analysis and rescaled results to disability weight units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). We compared results with previous estimates, and an additional analysis examined sensitivity of paired comparison responses to duration of hypothetical health states. Findings The total analysis sample consisted of 30 230 respondents from the GBD 2010 surveys and 30 660 from the new European surveys. For health states common to GBD 2010 and GBD 2013, results were highly correlated overall (Pearson's r 0·992 95% uncertainty interval 0·989–0·994). For health state descriptions that were revised for this study, resulting disability weights were substantially different for a subset of these weights, including those related to hearing loss (eg, complete hearing loss: GBD 2010 0·033 0·020–0·052; GBD 2013 0·215 0·144–0·307) and treated spinal cord lesions (below the neck: GBD 2010 0·047 0·028–0·072; GBD 2013 0·296 0·198–0·414; neck level: GBD 2010 0·369 0·243–0·513; GBD 2013 0·589 0·415–0·748). Survey responses to paired comparison questions were insensitive to whether the comparisons were framed in terms of temporary or chronic outcomes (Pearson's r 0·981 0·973–0·987). Interpretation This study substantially expands the empirical basis for assessment of non-fatal outcomes in the GBD study. Findings from this study substantiate the notion that disability weights are sensitive to particular details in descriptions of health states, but robust to duration of outcomes. Funding European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
IMPORTANCE: In the United States, regional variation in cardiovascular mortality is well-known but county-level estimates for all major cardiovascular conditions have not been produced. OBJECTIVE: To ...estimate age-standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases by county. DESIGN AND SETTING: Deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 through 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from all cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, cardiomyopathy, atrial fibrillation and flutter, rheumatic heart disease, aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease, endocarditis, and all other cardiovascular diseases combined. EXPOSURES: The 3110 counties of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause. RESULTS: From 1980 to 2014, cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death in the United States, although the mortality rate declined from 507.4 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 252.7 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014, a relative decline of 50.2% (95% uncertainty interval UI, 49.5%-50.8%). In 2014, cardiovascular diseases accounted for more than 846 000 deaths (95% UI, 827-865 thousand deaths) and 11.7 million years of life lost (95% UI, 11.6-11.9 million years of life lost). The gap in age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality rates between counties at the 10th and 90th percentile declined 14.6% from 172.1 deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980 to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2014 (posterior probability of decline >99.9%). In 2014, the ratio between counties at the 90th and 10th percentile was 2.0 for ischemic heart disease (119.1 vs 235.7 deaths per 100 000 persons) and 1.7 for cerebrovascular disease (40.3 vs 68.1 deaths per 100 000 persons). For other cardiovascular disease causes, the ratio ranged from 1.4 (aortic aneurysm: 3.5 vs 5.1 deaths per 100 000 persons) to 4.2 (hypertensive heart disease: 4.3 vs 17.9 deaths per 100 000 persons). The largest concentration of counties with high cardiovascular disease mortality extended from southeastern Oklahoma along the Mississippi River Valley to eastern Kentucky. Several cardiovascular disease conditions were clustered substantially outside the South, including atrial fibrillation (Northwest), aortic aneurysm (Midwest), and endocarditis (Mountain West and Alaska). The lowest cardiovascular mortality rates were found in the counties surrounding San Francisco, California, central Colorado, northern Nebraska, central Minnesota, northeastern Virginia, and southern Florida. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Substantial differences exist between county ischemic heart disease and stroke mortality rates. Smaller differences exist for diseases of the myocardium, atrial fibrillation, aortic and peripheral arterial disease, rheumatic heart disease, and endocarditis.
Objective To quantify the dose-response associations between total physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke ...events.Design Systematic review and Bayesian dose-response meta-analysis.Data sources PubMed and Embase from 1980 to 27 February 2016, and references from relevant systematic reviews. Data from the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health conducted in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa from 2007 to 2010 and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1999 to 2011 were used to map domain specific physical activity (reported in included studies) to total activity.Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies examining the associations between physical activity (any domain) and at least one of the five diseases studied.Results 174 articles were identified: 35 for breast cancer, 19 for colon cancer, 55 for diabetes, 43 for ischemic heart disease, and 26 for ischemic stroke (some articles included multiple outcomes). Although higher levels of total physical activity were significantly associated with lower risk for all outcomes, major gains occurred at lower levels of activity (up to 3000-4000 metabolic equivalent (MET) minutes/week). For example, individuals with a total activity level of 600 MET minutes/week (the minimum recommended level) had a 2% lower risk of diabetes compared with those reporting no physical activity. An increase from 600 to 3600 MET minutes/week reduced the risk by an additional 19%. The same amount of increase yielded much smaller returns at higher levels of activity: an increase of total activity from 9000 to 12 000 MET minutes/week reduced the risk of diabetes by only 0.6%. Compared with insufficiently active individuals (total activity <600 MET minutes/week), the risk reduction for those in the highly active category (≥8000 MET minutes/week) was 14% (relative risk 0.863, 95% uncertainty interval 0.829 to 0.900) for breast cancer; 21% (0.789, 0.735 to 0.850) for colon cancer; 28% (0.722, 0.678 to 0.768) for diabetes; 25% (0.754, 0.704 to 0.809) for ischemic heart disease; and 26% (0.736, 0.659 to 0.811) for ischemic stroke.Conclusions People who achieve total physical activity levels several times higher than the current recommended minimum level have a significant reduction in the risk of the five diseases studied. More studies with detailed quantification of total physical activity will help to find more precise relative risk estimates for different levels of activity.
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BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summary Background Previous assessments have highlighted that less than a quarter of countries are on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), which calls for a two-thirds reduction in ...mortality in children younger than 5 years between 1990 and 2015. In view of policy initiatives and investments made since 2000, it is important to see if there is acceleration towards the MDG 4 target. We assessed levels and trends in child mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010. Methods We compiled a database of 16 174 measurements of mortality in children younger than 5 years for 187 countries from 1970 to 2009, by use of data from all available sources, including vital registration systems, summary birth histories in censuses and surveys, and complete birth histories. We used Gaussian process regression to generate estimates of the probability of death between birth and age 5 years. This is the first study that uses Gaussian process regression to estimate child mortality, and this technique has better out-of-sample predictive validity than do previous methods and captures uncertainty caused by sampling and non-sampling error across data types. Neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality was estimated from mortality in children younger than 5 years by use of the 1760 measurements from vital registration systems and complete birth histories that contained specific information about neonatal and postneonatal mortality. Findings Worldwide mortality in children younger than 5 years has dropped from 11·9 million deaths in 1990 to 7·7 million deaths in 2010, consisting of 3·1 million neonatal deaths, 2·3 million postneonatal deaths, and 2·3 million childhood deaths (deaths in children aged 1–4 years). 33·0% of deaths in children younger than 5 years occur in south Asia and 49·6% occur in sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 1% of deaths occurring in high-income countries. Across 21 regions of the world, rates of neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality are declining. The global decline from 1990 to 2010 is 2·1% per year for neonatal mortality, 2·3% for postneonatal mortality, and 2·2% for childhood mortality. In 13 regions of the world, including all regions in sub-Saharan Africa, there is evidence of accelerating declines from 2000 to 2010 compared with 1990 to 2000. Within sub-Saharan Africa, rates of decline have increased by more than 1% in Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, and The Gambia. Interpretation Robust measurement of mortality in children younger than 5 years shows that accelerating declines are occurring in several low-income countries. These positive developments deserve attention and might need enhanced policy attention and resources. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
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