High‐resolution ice flow modeling requires bedrock elevation and ice thickness data, consistent with one another and with modeled physics. Previous studies have shown that gridded ice thickness ...products that rely on standard interpolation techniques (such as Bedmap2) can be inconsistent with the conservation of mass, given observed velocity, surface elevation change, and surface mass balance, for example, near the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. Using the BISICLES ice flow model, we compare results of simulations using both Bedmap2 bedrock and thickness data, and a new interpolation method that respects mass conservation. We find that simulations using the new geometry result in higher sea level contribution than Bedmap2 and reveal decadal‐scale trends in the ice stream dynamics. We test the impact of several sliding laws and find that it is at least as important to accurately represent the bedrock and initial ice thickness as the choice of sliding law.
Plain Language Summary
Models of fast‐flowing outlet glaciers from ice sheets (known as ice streams) require numerous input data, including bedrock topography and ice thickness. Traditionally, these geometry data are produced from geostatistical interpolation of airborne radar measurements. However, these data products (e.g., Bedmap2) can result in unrealistic signals in model results. For example, near the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier, a major ice stream in West Antarctica, Bedmap2 has a region of shallow bedrock topography that, given velocity observations, produces spurious ice thickening, which is not observed in accumulation rates or surface elevation change. Therefore, the aim of this work is to produce and test a new mass‐conserved geometry product of Pine Island Glacier. We use an ice flow model to compare geometries and find that simulations using the new geometry produces more sea level rise than Bedmap2, even when accounting for uncertainty in a parameter associated with ice sliding over bedrock. Model projections of future sea level rise from ice sheets depend on highly resolved and accurate geometry data products.
Key Points
Accurate bed geometry is at least as important as sliding law in modeling ice stream dynamics
Mass‐conserving geometry improves simulated response of Pine Island Glacier over Bedmap2
Small topographic features can cause decadal‐scale response in dynamics
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in ...tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models.
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Nitrogen inputs and microbial nitrogen cycling were investigated along a 79 km transect into the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) during the main ablation season in summer 2010. The depletion of dissolved ...nitrate and production of ammonium (relative to icemelt) in cryoconite holes on Leverett Glacier, within 7.5 km of the ice sheet margin, suggested microbial uptake and ammonification respectively. Positive in situ acetylene assays indicated nitrogen fixation both in a debris-rich 100 m marginal zone and up to 5.7 km upslope on Leverett Glacier (with rates up to 16.3 μmoles C2H4 m−2 day−1). No positive acetylene assays were detected > 5.7 km into the ablation zone of the ice sheet. Potential nitrogen fixation only occurred when concentrations of dissolved and sediment-bound inorganic nitrogen were undetectable. Estimates of nitrogen fluxes onto the transect suggest that nitrogen fixation is likely of minor importance to the overall nitrogen budget of Leverett Glacier and of negligible importance to the nitrogen budget on the main ice sheet itself. Nitrogen fixation is however potentially important as a source of nitrogen to microbial communities in the debris-rich marginal zone close to the terminus of the glacier, where nitrogen fixation may aid the colonization of subglacial and moraine-derived debris.
In the Amundsen sector of West Antarctica, the flow of glaciers accelerates when intrusion of warm ocean water onto the continental shelf induces strong melting beneath ice shelves and thinning near ...the glaciers' grounding line. Predicting the future of these glaciers is, however, hindered by a poor understanding of the dynamical processes that may exacerbate, or on the contrary modulate, the inland ice sheet response. This study seeks to investigate processes occurring at the base of Pine Island Glacier through numerical inversions of surface velocities observed in 1996 and 2014, a period of time during which the glacier accelerated significantly. The outputs show that substantial changes took place in the basal environment, which we interpret with models of undrained subglacial till and hydrological routing. The annual basal melt production increased by 25% on average. Basal drag weakened by 15% over nearly two thirds of the region of accelerated flow, largely due to the direct assimilation of locally produced basal meltwater into the underlying subglacial sediment. In contrast, regions of increased drag are found to follow several of the glacier's shear margins and furthermore to coincide with inferred hydrological pathways. We interpret this basal strengthening as signature of an efficient hydrological system, where low‐pressure water channels have reduced the surrounding basal water pressure. These are the first identified stabilization mechanisms to have developed alongside Pine Island ice flow acceleration. Indeed, these processes could become more significant with increased meltwater availability and may limit the glacier's response to perturbation near its grounding line.
Key Points
Numerical inversions interpreted with undrained till and water routing models are used to infer basal changes and hydrological conditions
Weaker beds in central troughs are offset by stronger beds along shear margins, which coincide with major hydrological pathways
The future flow of PIG may depend on the coevolution of basal properties and shear margins in addition to its interaction with the ocean
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Bed conditions of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica Brisbourne, A. M.; Smith, A. M.; Vaughan, D. G. ...
Journal of geophysical research. Earth surface,
January 2017, 2017-01-00, 20170101, Volume:
122, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Although 90% of Antarctica's discharge occurs via its fast‐flowing ice streams, our ability to project future ice sheet response has been limited by poor observational constraints on the ice‐bed ...conditions used in numerical models to determine basal slip. We have helped address this observational deficit by acquiring and analyzing a series of seismic reflection profiles to determine basal conditions beneath the main trunk and tributaries of Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica. Seismic profiles indicate large‐scale sedimentary deposits. Combined with seismic reflection images, measured acoustic impedance values indicate relatively uniform bed conditions directly beneath the main trunk and tributaries, comprising a widespread reworked sediment layer with a dilated sediment lid of minimum thickness 1.5 ± 0.4 m. Beneath a slow‐moving intertributary region, a discrete low‐porosity sediment layer of 7 ± 3 m thickness is imaged. Despite considerable basal topography, seismic observations indicate that a till layer at the ice base is ubiquitous beneath PIG, which requires a highly mobile sediment body to maintain an abundant supply. These results are compatible with existing ice sheet models used to invert for basal shear stress: existing basal conditions upstream will not inhibit further rapid retreat of PIG if the high‐friction region currently restraining flow, directly upstream of the grounding line, is breached. However, small changes in the pressure regime at the bed, as a result of stress reorganization following retreat, may result in a less‐readily deformable bed and conditions which are less likely to maintain high ice‐flow rates.
Key Points
Results from an extensive new seismic survey of the bed of Pine Island Glacier are presented
Tributaries of Pine Island Glacier are underlain by widespread low‐porosity dilated sediments
Deep older deposits provide an abundant supply of sediment across the basin
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Determining reliable probability distributions for ice sheet mass change over the coming century is critical to refining uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. Bayesian calibration, a method ...for constraining projection uncertainty using observations, has been previously applied to ice sheet projections but the impact of the chosen observation type on the calibrated posterior probability distributions has not been quantified. Here, we perform three separate Bayesian calibrations to constrain uncertainty in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) simulations of the committed mass loss in 2100 under the current climate, using observations of velocity change, dynamic ice thickness change, and mass change. Comparing the posterior probability distributions shows that the median ice sheet mass change can differ by 119 % for the particular model ensemble that we used, depending on the observation type used in the calibration. More importantly for risk-averse sea-level planning, posterior probabilities of high-end mass change scenarios are highly sensitive to the observation selected for calibration. Furthermore, we show that using mass change observations alone may result in model simulations that overestimate flow acceleration and underestimate dynamic thinning around the margin of the ice sheet. Finally, we look ahead and present ideas for ways to improve Bayesian calibration of ice sheet projections.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Pathogenic mutations in APP, PSEN1, PSEN2, MAPT and GRN have previously been linked to familial early onset forms of dementia. Mutation screening in these genes has been performed in either very ...small series or in single families with late onset AD (LOAD). Similarly, studies in single families have reported mutations in MAPT and GRN associated with clinical AD but no systematic screen of a large dataset has been performed to determine how frequently this occurs. We report sequence data for 439 probands from late-onset AD families with a history of four or more affected individuals. Sixty sequenced individuals (13.7%) carried a novel or pathogenic mutation. Eight pathogenic variants, (one each in APP and MAPT, two in PSEN1 and four in GRN) three of which are novel, were found in 14 samples. Thirteen additional variants, present in 23 families, did not segregate with disease, but the frequency of these variants is higher in AD cases than controls, indicating that these variants may also modify risk for disease. The frequency of rare variants in these genes in this series is significantly higher than in the 1,000 genome project (p = 5.09 × 10⁻⁵; OR = 2.21; 95%CI = 1.49-3.28) or an unselected population of 12,481 samples (p = 6.82 × 10⁻⁵; OR = 2.19; 95%CI = 1.347-3.26). Rare coding variants in APP, PSEN1 and PSEN2, increase risk for or cause late onset AD. The presence of variants in these genes in LOAD and early-onset AD demonstrates that factors other than the mutation can impact the age at onset and penetrance of at least some variants associated with AD. MAPT and GRN mutations can be found in clinical series of AD most likely due to misdiagnosis. This study clearly demonstrates that rare variants in these genes could explain an important proportion of genetic heritability of AD, which is not detected by GWAS.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh PDB per kapita dan konsumsi energi terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca, serta menguji hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) di Indonesia. ...Penelitian ini menggunakan dua metode, yaitu Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) dan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan pendekatan bound testing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PDB per kapita memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca. Konsumsi energi terbarukan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca, sedangkan konsumsi energi tak terbarukan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap emisi gas rumah kaca total, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadap emisi CO2. Dalam jangka panjang, hipotesis EKC berlaku di Indonesia.
Late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) is the most common form of dementia in the elderly. The National Institute of Aging-Late Onset Alzheimer's Disease Family Study and the National Cell Repository ...for Alzheimer's Disease conducted a joint genome-wide association study (GWAS) of multiplex LOAD families (3,839 affected and unaffected individuals from 992 families plus additional unrelated neurologically evaluated normal subjects) using the 610 IlluminaQuad panel. This cohort represents the largest family-based GWAS of LOAD to date, with analyses limited here to the European-American subjects. SNPs near APOE gave highly significant results (e.g., rs2075650, p = 3.2×10(-81)), but no other genome-wide significant evidence for association was obtained in the full sample. Analyses that stratified on APOE genotypes identified SNPs on chromosome 10p14 in CUGBP2 with genome-wide significant evidence for association within APOE ε4 homozygotes (e.g., rs201119, p = 1.5×10(-8)). Association in this gene was replicated in an independent sample consisting of three cohorts. There was evidence of association for recently-reported LOAD risk loci, including BIN1 (rs7561528, p = 0.009 with, and p = 0.03 without, APOE adjustment) and CLU (rs11136000, p = 0.023 with, and p = 0.008 without, APOE adjustment), with weaker support for CR1. However, our results provide strong evidence that association with PICALM (rs3851179, p = 0.69 with, and p = 0.039 without, APOE adjustment) and EXOC3L2 is affected by correlation with APOE, and thus may represent spurious association. Our results indicate that genetic structure coupled with ascertainment bias resulting from the strong APOE association affect genome-wide results and interpretation of some recently reported associations. We show that a locus such as APOE, with large effects and strong association with disease, can lead to samples that require appropriate adjustment for this locus to avoid both false positive and false negative evidence of association. We suggest that similar adjustments may also be needed for many other large multi-site studies.
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The National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) is responsible for developing and maintaining a database of participant information collected from the 29 Alzheimer's Disease Centers (ADCs) funded ...by the National Institute on Aging (NIA). The NIA appointed the ADC Clinical Task Force to determine and define an expanded, standardized clinical data set, called the Uniform Data Set (UDS). The goal of the UDS is to provide ADC researchers a standard set of assessment procedures, collected longitudinally, to better characterize ADC participants with mild Alzheimer disease and mild cognitive impairment in comparison with nondemented controls. NACC implemented the UDS (September 2005) by developing data collection forms for initial and follow-up visits based on Clinical Task Force definitions, a relational database, and a data submission system accessible by all ADCs. The NIA requires ADCs to submit UDS data to NACC for all their Clinical Core participants. Thus, the NACC web site (https://www.alz.washington.edu) was enhanced to provide efficient and secure access data submission and retrieval systems.
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