We leveraged exogenous variation in weather patterns across geographies to identify social contagion in exercise behaviours across a global social network. We estimated these contagion effects by ...combining daily global weather data, which creates exogenous variation in running among friends, with data on the network ties and daily exercise patterns of ∼1.1M individuals who ran over 350M km in a global social network over 5 years. Here we show that exercise is socially contagious and that its contagiousness varies with the relative activity of and gender relationships between friends. Less active runners influence more active runners, but not the reverse. Both men and women influence men, while only women influence other women. While the Embeddedness and Structural Diversity theories of social contagion explain the influence effects we observe, the Complex Contagion theory does not. These results suggest interventions that account for social contagion will spread behaviour change more effectively.
Rationing social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic Benzell, Seth G.; Collis, Avinash; Nicolaides, Christos
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
06/2020, Volume:
117, Issue:
26
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
To prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), some types of public spaces have been shut down while others remain open. These decisions constitute a judgment about the relative danger ...and benefits of those locations. Using mobility data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and economic statistics, we measure the relative transmission reduction benefit and social cost of closing 26 categories of US locations. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and service providers. We rank categories by their trade-off of social benefits and transmission risk via dominance across 13 dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that, from February to March 2020, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures indicate should be closed first.
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Abstract
Access to online information has been crucial throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed more than eight million randomly selected Twitter posts from the first wave of the pandemic to ...study the role of the author’s social status (Health Expert or Influencer) and the informational novelty of the tweet in the diffusion of several key types of information. Our results show that health-related information and political discourse propagated faster than personal narratives, economy-related or travel-related news. Content novelty further accelerated the spread of these discussion themes. People trusted health experts on health-related knowledge, especially when it was novel, while influencers were more effective at propagating political discourse. Finally, we observed a U-shaped relationship between the informational novelty and the number of retweets. Tweets with average novelty spread the least. Tweets with high novelty propagated the most, primarily when they discussed political, health, or personal information, perhaps owing to the immediacy to mobilize this information. On the other hand, economic and travel-related information spread most when it was less novel, and people resisted sharing such information before it was duly verified.
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Social distancing is the core policy response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). But, as federal, state and local governments begin opening businesses and relaxing shelter-in-place orders ...worldwide, we lack quantitative evidence on how policies in one region affect mobility and social distancing in other regions and the consequences of uncoordinated regional policies adopted in the presence of such spillovers. To investigate this concern, we combined daily, county-level data on shelter-in-place policies with movement data from over 27 million mobile devices, social network connections among over 220 million Facebook users, daily temperature and precipitation data from 62,000 weather stations, and county-level census data on population demographics to estimate the geographic and social network spillovers created by regional policies across the United States. Our analysis shows that the contact patterns of people in a given region are significantly influenced by the policies and behaviors of people in other, sometimes distant, regions. When just one-third of a state’s social and geographic peer states adopt shelter-in-place policies, it creates a reduction in mobility equal to the state’s own policy decisions. These spillovers are mediated by peer travel and distancing behaviors in those states. A simple analytical model calibrated with our empirical estimates demonstrated that the “loss from anarchy” in uncoordinated state policies is increasing in the number of noncooperating states and the size of social and geographic spillovers. These results suggest a substantial cost of uncoordinated government responses to COVID-19 when people, ideas, and media move across borders.
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Introduction
Pre-launch advertising communications are critical for the early adoption of experiential products. Often, companies release a variety of advertising messages for the same product, which ...results in a lack of information consistency. Research on the effect of advertising communications with different message content is scarce. Further, most studies on information consistency rely on experimental methods, leaving the actual effect of consumer response on product adoption unknown.
Methods
Treating online comments to movie trailers as consumer response to advertising communication, we propose a natural language processing methodology to measure information consistency. We validate our measurement through an online experiment and test it on 1.3 million YouTube comments.
Results
Our empirical results provide evidence that information consistency driven by trailer-viewing is a key driver of opening box office success.
Discussion
Insights deriving from this study are important to marketing communications research, especially in contexts where early product adoption is critical.
Engineering projects are notoriously hard to complete on-time, with project delays often theorised to propagate across interdependent activities. Here, we use a novel dataset consisting of activity ...networks from 14 diverse, large-scale engineering projects to uncover network properties that impact timely project completion. We provide empirical evidence of perturbation cascades, where perturbations in the delivery of a single activity can impact the delivery of up to 4 activities downstream, leading to large perturbation cascades. We further show that perturbation clustering significantly affects project overall delays. Finally, we find that poorly performing projects have their highest perturbations in high reach nodes, which can lead to largest cascades, while well performing projects have perturbations in low reach nodes, resulting in localised cascades. Altogether, these findings pave the way for a network-science framework that can materially enhance the delivery of large-scale engineering projects.
We present different data analytic methodologies that have been applied in order to understand the evolution of the first wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 in the Republic of Cyprus and the effect ...of different intervention measures that have been taken by the government. Change point detection has been used in order to estimate the number and locations of changes in the behaviour of the collected data. Count time series methods have been employed to provide short term projections and a number of various compartmental models have been fitted to the data providing with long term projections on the pandemic's evolution and allowing for the estimation of the effective reproduction number.
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Vaccine hesitancy is a complex health problem, with various factors involved including the influence of an individual's network. According to the Social Contagion Theory, attitudes and behaviours of ...an individual can be contagious to others in their social networks. This scoping review aims to collate evidence on how attitudes and vaccination uptake are spread within social networks. Databases of PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, and Scopus were searched with the full text of 24 studies being screened. A narrative synthesis approach was used to collate the evidence and interpret findings. Eleven cross-sectional studies were included. Participants held more positive vaccination attitudes and greater likelihood to get vaccinated or vaccinate their child when they were frequently exposed to positive attitudes and frequently discussing vaccinations with family and friends. We also observed that vaccination uptake was decreased when family and friends were hesitant to take the vaccine. Homophily-the tendency of similar individuals to be connected in a social network-was identified as a significant factor that drives the results, especially with respect to race and ethnicity. This review highlights the key role that social networks play in shaping attitudes and vaccination uptake. Public health authorities should tailor interventions and involve family and friends to result in greater vaccination uptake.
The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the ...spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.
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Public policy and individual incentives determine the patterns of human mobility through transportation networks. In the event of a health emergency, the pursuit of maximum social or individual ...utility may lead to conflicting objectives in the routing strategies of network users. Individuals tend to avoid exposure so as to minimize the risk of contagion, whereas policymakers aim at coordinated behaviour that maximizes the social welfare. Here, we study agent-driven contagion dynamics through transportation networks, coupled to the adoption of either selfish- or policy-driven rerouting strategies. In analogy with the concept of price of anarchy in transportation networks subject to congestion, we show that maximizing individual utility leads to a loss of welfare for the social group, measured here by the total population infected after an epidemic outbreak.
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