Summary Background The effect of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) on first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) for HIV-1 needs further study to inform choice of optimum drug regimens. We ...investigated the effect of TDR on outcome in the first year of cART within a large European collaboration. Methods HIV-infected patients of any age were included if they started cART (at least three antiretroviral drugs) for the first time after Jan 1, 1998, and were antiretroviral naive and had at least one sample for a genotypic test taken before the start of cART. We used the WHO drug resistance list and the Stanford algorithm to classify patients into three resistance categories: no TDR, at least one mutation and fully-active cART, or at least one mutation and resistant to at least one prescribed drug. Virological failure was defined as time to the first of two consecutive viral load measurements over 500 copies per mL after 6 months of therapy. Findings Of 10 056 patients from 25 cohorts, 9102 (90·5%) had HIV without TDR, 475 (4·7%) had at least one mutation but received fully-active cART, and 479 (4·8%) had at least one mutation and resistance to at least one drug. Cumulative Kaplan-Meier estimates for virological failure at 12 months were 4·2% (95% CI 3·8–4·7) for patients in the no TDR group, 4·7% (2·9–7·5) for those in the TDR and fully-active cART group, and 15·1% (11·9–19·0) for those in the TDR and resistant group (log-rank p<0·0001). The hazard ratio for the difference in virological failure between patients with TDR and resistance to at least one drug and those without TDR was 3·13 (95% CI 2·33–4·20, p<0·0001). The hazard ratio for the difference between patients with TDR receiving fully-active cART and patients without TDR was 1·47 (95% CI 0·19–2·38, p=0·12). In stratified analysis, the hazard ratio for the risk of virological failure in patients with TDR who received fully-active cART that included a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) compared with those without TDR was 2·0 (95% CI 0·9–4·7, p=0·093). Interpretation These findings confirm present treatment guidelines for HIV, which state that the initial treatment choice should be based on resistance testing in treatment-naive patients. Funding European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 and Gilead.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Background: Data on long-term prognosis after spondylodiscitis are scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine long-term mortality and the causes of death after spondylodiscitis. Methods: A ...nationwide, population-based cohort study using national registries of patients diagnosed with non-post-operative pyogenic spondylodiscitis from 1994-2009, alive 1 year after diagnosis (n = 1505). A comparison cohort from the background population individually matched for sex and age was identified (n = 7525). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed and Poisson regression analyses used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR). Results: Three hundred and sixty-five patients (24%) and 1115 individuals from the comparison cohort (15%) died. Unadjusted MRR for spondylodiscitis patients was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.57-1.98) and 1.47 (95% CI = 1.30-1.66) after adjustment for comorbidity. No deaths were observed in 128 patients under the age of 16 years. Siblings of patients did not have increased long-term mortality compared with siblings of the individuals from the comparison cohort. This study observed increased mortality due to infections (MRR = 2.57), neoplasms (MRR = 1.40), endocrine (MRR = 3.72), cardiovascular (MRR = 1.62), respiratory (MRR = 1.71), gastrointestinal (MRR = 3.35), musculoskeletal (MRR = 5.39) and genitourinary diseases (MRR = 3.37), but also due to trauma, poisoning and external causes (MRR = 2.78), alcohol abuse-related diseases (MRR = 5.59) and drug abuse-related diseases (6 vs 0 deaths, MRR not calculable). Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality, mainly due to comorbidities, particularly substance abuse.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Health care for people living with HIV has improved substantially in the past two decades. Robust estimates of how these improvements have affected prognosis and life expectancy are of utmost ...importance to patients, clinicians, and health-care planners. We examined changes in 3 year survival and life expectancy of patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1996 and 2013.
We analysed data from 18 European and North American HIV-1 cohorts. Patients (aged ≥16 years) were eligible for this analysis if they had started ART with three or more drugs between 1996 and 2010 and had at least 3 years of potential follow-up. We estimated adjusted (for age, sex, AIDS, risk group, CD4 cell count, and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for the first year after ART initiation and the second and third years after ART initiation in four calendar periods (1996–99, 2000–03 comparator, 2004–07, 2008–10). We estimated life expectancy by calendar period of initiation of ART.
88 504 patients were included in our analyses, of whom 2106 died during the first year of ART and 2302 died during the second or third year of ART. Patients starting ART in 2008–10 had lower all-cause mortality in the first year after ART initiation than did patients starting ART in 2000–03 (adjusted HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·61–0·83). All-cause mortality in the second and third years after initiation of ART was also lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 than in those who started in 2000–03 (0·57, 0·49–0·67); this decrease was not fully explained by viral load and CD4 cell count at 1 year. Rates of non-AIDS deaths were lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 (vs 2000–03) in the first year (0·48, 0·34–0·67) and second and third years (0·29, 0·21–0·40) after initiation of ART. Between 1996 and 2010, life expectancy in 20-year-old patients starting ART increased by about 9 years in women and 10 years in men.
Even in the late ART era, survival during the first 3 years of ART continues to improve, which probably reflects transition to less toxic antiretroviral drugs, improved adherence, prophylactic measures, and management of comorbidity. Prognostic models and life expectancy estimates should be updated to account for these improvements.
UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, EU EDCTP2 programme.
In a nationwide, population-based cohort study we assessed the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) in HIV-infected individuals compared with the general population, and evaluated the impact of risk ...factors for DM in HIV-infected individuals.
We identified 4,984 Danish-born HIV-infected individuals from the Danish HIV Cohort Study and a Danish born population-based age- and gender-matched comparison cohort of 19,936 individuals (study period: 1996-2009). Data on DM was obtained from the Danish National Hospital Registry and the Danish National Prescription Registry. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and impact of risk factors including exposure to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) and antiretroviral drugs were estimated by Poisson regression analyses.
In the period 1996-1999 risk of DM was higher in HIV-infected individuals compared to the comparison cohort (adjusted IRR: 2.83; 95%CI: 1.57-5.09), both before (adjusted IRR: 2.40; 95%CI: 1.03-5.62) and after HAART initiation (adjusted IRR: 3.24; 95% CI: 1.42-7.39). In the period 1999-2010 the risk of DM in HIV-infected individuals did not differ from that of the comparison cohort (adjusted IRR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.72-1.13), although the risk was decreased before HAART-initiation (adjusted IRR: 0.45; 95%CI: 0.21-0.96). Increasing age, BMI and the presence of lipoatrophy increased the risk of DM, as did exposure to indinavir, saquinavir, stavudine and didanosine.
Native HIV-infected individuals do not have an increased risk of developing DM compared to a native background population after year 1998. Some antiretroviral drugs, not used in modern antiretroviral treatment, seem to increase the risk of DM.
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Summary Background Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to ...eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. Methods We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Findings Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval BCI 0·4–2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264–858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent. Interpretation Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. Funding National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Understanding why some people establish and maintain effective control of HIV-1 and others do not is a priority in the effort to develop new treatments for HIV/AIDS. Using a whole-genome association ...strategy, we identified polymorphisms that explain nearly 15% of the variation among individuals in viral load during the asymptomatic set-point period of infection. One of these is found within an endogenous retroviral element and is associated with major histocompatibility allele human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B*5701, whereas a second is located near the HLA-C gene. An additional analysis of the time to HIV disease progression implicated two genes, one of which encodes an RNA polymerase I subunit. These findings emphasize the importance of studying human genetic variation as a guide to combating infectious agents.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background. There are concerns about highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) causing a progressive increase in the risk of ischemic heart disease. We examined this issue in a nationwide cohort ...study of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and a population-based control group. Methods. We determined the rate of first hospitalization for ischemic heart disease in all Danish patients with HIV infection (3953 patients) from 1 January 1995 through 31 December 2004 and compared this rate with that for 373,856 subjects in a population-based control group. Data on first hospitalization for ischemic heart disease and comorbidity were obtained from the Danish National Hospital Registry for all study participants. We used Cox's regression to compute the hospitalization rate ratio as an estimate of relative risk, adjusting for comorbidity. Results. Although the difference was not statistically significant, patients with HIV infection who had not initiated HAART were slightly more likely to be hospitalized for the first time with ischemic heart disease than were control subjects (adjusted relative risk, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.81–2.33). After HAART initiation, the risk increase became substantially higher (adjusted relative risk, 2.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.62–2.76), but the relative risk did not further increase in the initial 8 years of HAART. Conclusions. Compared with the general population, HIV-infected patients receiving HAART have an increased risk of ischemic heart disease, but the relative risk is stable up to 8 years after treatment initiation.
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BFBNIB, NUK, PNG, UL, UM, UPUK
Whether the reported high risk of age-related diseases in HIV-infected people is caused by biological ageing or HIV-associated risk factors such as chronic immune activation and low-grade ...inflammation is unknown. We assessed time trends in age-standardised and relative risks of nine serious age-related diseases in a nationwide cohort study of HIV-infected individuals and population controls.
We identified all HIV-infected individuals in the Danish HIV Cohort Study who had received HIV care in Denmark between Jan 1, 1995, and June 1, 2014. Population controls were identified from the Danish Civil Registration System and individually matched in a ratio of nine to one to the HIV-infected individuals for year of birth, sex, and date of study inclusion. Individuals were included in the study if they had a Danish personal identification number, were aged 16 years or older, and were living in Denmark at the time of study inclusion. Data for study outcomes were obtained from the Danish National Hospital Registry and the Danish National Registry of Causes of Death and were cardiovascular diseases (myocardial infarction and stroke), cancers (virus associated, smoking related, and other), severe neurocognitive disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, and osteoporotic fractures. We calculated excess and age-standardised incidence rates and adjusted incidence rate ratios of outcomes for time after HIV diagnosis, highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, and calendar time. The regression analyses were adjusted for age, sex, calendar time, and origin.
We identified 5897 HIV-infected individuals and 53,073 population controls; median age was 36·8 years (IQR 30·6-44·4), and 76% were men in both cohorts. Dependent on disease, the HIV cohort had 55,050-57,631 person-years of follow-up and the population controls had 638,204-659,237 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the population controls, people with HIV had high excess and relative risk of all age-related diseases except other cancers. Overall, the age-standardised and relative risks of cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and severe neurocognitive disease did not increase substantially with time after HIV diagnosis or ART initiation. Except for chronic kidney diseases, the age-standardised and relative risks of age-related diseases did not increase with calendar time.
Severe age-related diseases are highly prevalent in people with HIV, and continued attention and strategies for risk reduction are needed. The findings from our study do not suggest that accelerated ageing is a major problem in the HIV-infected population.
Preben og Anna Simonsens Fond, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Danish AIDS Foundation, Augustinus Foundation, and Odense University Hospitals Frie Fonds Midler.
Successful treatment reduces morbidity, mortality and transmission of HIV. We evaluated trends in the treatment status of HIV infected individuals enrolled in care in Sweden and Denmark during the ...years 1995-2010. Our aim was to assess the proportion of HIV-infected individuals who received services along the continuum of care in Denmark in 2010, and to discuss the findings in relation to the organization of the health care system.
We analyzed CD4 counts and viral loads (VL) among all HIV patients enrolled in the cohort. For each month of the study period we estimated the proportions of patients who 1) had initiated highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) and had VL<500 copies/mL, 2) were not eligible for HAART, 3) had initiated HAART but had VL≥500 copies/mL, 4) were eligible for, but had not initiated HAART and 5) had initiated HAART but no VL monitoring for >13 months or 6) no HAART or monitoring of CD4 for >13 months. Patients fulfilling criteria 1 or 2 were considered successfully managed.
The proportion of successfully managed patients continued to increase throughout the study period and reached 83% in 2010, 92% of Swedish/Danish men who have sex with men and heterosexual patients, but only 74% of immigrants and 78% of injection drug users were successfully managed due to higher rates of inadequate monitoring in the latter two groups. In 2010, 70% of all individuals diagnosed with HIV in Denmark were virally suppressed.
In a public health care system with free access to specialized care, successful management of the majority of HIV patients is achievable. Interventions tailored to retain immigrants and injection drug users in care are needed to further reduce the proportion of sub-optimally treated HIV patients.
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