An increasing number of quantitative reviews of epidemiological data includes a doseresponse analysis. Aims of this paper are to describe the main aspects of the methodology and to illustrate the ...novel R package dosresmeta developed for multivariate dose-response meta-analysis of summarized data. Specific topics covered are reconstructing covariances of correlated outcomes; pooling of study-specific trends; flexible modeling of the exposure; testing hypothesis; assessing statistical heterogeneity; and presenting in either a graphical or tabular way the overall dose-response association.
Meta-analytical methods are frequently used to combine dose-response findings expressed in terms of relative risks. However, no methodology has been established when results are summarized in terms ...of differences in means of quantitative outcomes.
We proposed a two-stage approach. A flexible dose-response model is estimated within each study (first stage) taking into account the covariance of the data points (mean differences, standardized mean differences). Parameters describing the study-specific curves are then combined using a multivariate random-effects model (second stage) to address heterogeneity across studies.
The method is fairly general and can accommodate a variety of parametric functions. Compared to traditional non-linear models (e.g. E max, logistic), spline models do not assume any pre-specified dose-response curve. Spline models allow inclusion of studies with a small number of dose levels, and almost any shape, even non monotonic ones, can be estimated using only two parameters. We illustrated the method using dose-response data arising from five clinical trials on an antipsychotic drug, aripiprazole, and improvement in symptoms in shizoaffective patients. Using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), pooled results indicated a non-linear association with the maximum change in mean PANSS score equal to 10.40 (95 % confidence interval 7.48, 13.30) observed for 19.32 mg/day of aripiprazole. No substantial change in PANSS score was observed above this value. An estimated dose of 10.43 mg/day was found to produce 80 % of the maximum predicted response.
The described approach should be adopted to combine correlated differences in means of quantitative outcomes arising from multiple studies. Sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to assess the robustness of the overall dose-response curve to different modelling strategies. A user-friendly R package has been developed to facilitate applications by practitioners.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The standard two-stage approach for estimating non-linear dose–response curves based on aggregated data typically excludes those studies with less than three exposure groups. We develop the one-stage ...method as a linear mixed model and present the main aspects of the methodology, including model specification, estimation, testing, prediction, goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and quantification of between-studies heterogeneity. Using both fictitious and real data from a published meta-analysis, we illustrated the main features of the proposed methodology and compared it to a traditional two-stage analysis. In a one-stage approach, the pooled curve and estimates of the between-studies heterogeneity are based on the whole set of studies without any exclusion. Thus, even complex curves (splines, spike at zero exposure) defined by several parameters can be estimated. We showed how the one-stage method may facilitate several applications, in particular quantification of heterogeneity over the exposure range, prediction of marginal and conditional curves, and comparison of alternative models. The one-stage method for meta-analysis of non-linear curves is implemented in the dosresmeta R package. It is particularly suited for dose–response meta-analyses of aggregated where the complexity of the research question is better addressed by including all the studies.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Two methods for point and interval estimation of relative risk for log-linear exposure-response relations in meta-analyses of published ordinal categorical exposure-response data have been proposed. ...The authors compared the results of a meta-analysis of published data using each of the 2 methods with the results that would be obtained if the primary data were available and investigated the circumstances under which the approximations required for valid use of each meta-analytic method break down. They then extended the methods to handle nonlinear exposure-response relations. In the present article, methods are illustrated using studies of the relation between alcohol consumption and colorectal and lung cancer risks from the ongoing Pooling Project of Prospective Studies of Diet and Cancer. In these examples, the differences between the results of a meta-analysis of summarized published data and the pooled analysis of the individual original data were small. However, incorrectly assuming no correlation between relative risk estimates for exposure categories from the same study gave biased confidence intervals for the trend and biased P values for the tests for nonlinearity and between-study heterogeneity when there was strong confounding by other model covariates. The authors illustrate the use of 2 publicly available user-friendly programs (Stata and SAS) to implement meta-analysis for dose-response data.
Objective:The dose-response relationships of antipsychotic drugs for schizophrenia are not well defined, but such information would be important for decision making by clinicians. The authors sought ...to fill this gap by conducting dose-response meta-analyses.Methods:A search of multiple electronic databases (through November 2018) was conducted for all placebo-controlled dose-finding studies for 20 second-generation antipsychotic drugs and haloperidol (oral and long-acting injectable, LAI) in people with acute schizophrenia symptoms. Dose-response curves were constructed with random-effects dose-response meta-analyses and a spline model. The outcome measure was total score reduction from baseline on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale or the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. The authors identified 95% effective doses, explored whether higher or lower doses than the currently licensed ones might be more appropriate, and derived dose equivalencies from the 95% effective doses.Results:Sixty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. The 95% effective doses and the doses equivalent to 1 mg of oral risperidone, respectively, were as follows: amisulpride for patients with positive symptoms, 537 mg/day and 85.8 mg; aripiprazole, 11.5 mg/day and 1.8 mg; aripiprazole LAI (lauroxil), 463 mg every 4 weeks and 264 mg; asenapine, 15.0 mg/day and 2.4 mg; brexpiprazole, 3.36 mg/day and 0.54 mg; haloperidol, 6.3 mg/day and 1.01 mg; iloperidone, 20.13 mg/day and 3.2 mg; lurasidone, 147 mg/day and 23.5 mg; olanzapine, 15.2 mg/day and 2.4 mg; olanzapine LAI, 277 mg every 2 weeks and 3.2 mg; paliperidone, 13.4 mg/day and 2.1 mg; paliperidone LAI, 120 mg every 4 weeks and 1.53 mg; quetiapine, 482 mg/day and 77 mg; risperidone, 6.3 mg/day and 1 mg; risperidone LAI, 36.6 mg every 2 weeks and 0.42 mg; sertindole, 22.5 mg/day and 3.6 mg; and ziprasidone, 186 mg/day and 30 mg. For amisulpride and olanzapine, specific data for patients with predominant negative symptoms were available. The authors have made available on their web site a spreadsheet with this method and other updated methods that can be used to estimate dose equivalencies in practice.Conclusions:In chronic schizophrenia patients with acute exacerbations, doses higher than the identified 95% effective doses may on average not provide more efficacy. For some drugs, higher than currently licensed doses might be tested in further trials, because their dose-response curves did not plateau.
•We carried out a dose-response meta-analysis on Cd exposure and breast cancer.•We found a marginal and statistically imprecise relation with dietary Cd intake.•We observed a substantial null ...association with urinary Cd excretion.•Analysis restricted to post-menopausal women showed no association.
Cadmium is a toxic heavy metal that has been implicated in breast cancer etiology, albeit with inconsistent results.
To investigate the shape of the relation between cadmium exposure and breast cancer incidence and mortality in cohort studies.
Following a literature search through April 14, 2020, we carried out a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis to investigate the shape of the relation between cadmium exposure (assessed either through diet or urine excretion) and disease incidence and mortality.
For inclusion, a study had to report incidence or mortality for breast cancer according to baseline cadmium exposure category; be a prospective cohort, case-cohort or nested case-control study with a minimum one-year follow-up, and reporting effect estimates for all exposure categories.
Studies were evaluated using the ROBINS-E risk of bias tool. The effects in humans were assessed quantitatively using one-stage dose-response meta-analysis in a random effects meta-analytical model.
We identified 10 studies eligible for inclusion in the dose-response meta-analysis, six based on cadmium dietary intake, and four on urinary excretion levels. We found a marginal and imprecise positive relation between dietary cadmium intake and breast cancer, and no association when urinary cadmium excretion was used for exposure assessment. Compared to no exposure, at 20 µg/day of cadmium intake the summary risk ratio was 1.12 (95% confidence interval 0.80–1.56), while at 2 µg/g creatinine of cadmium excretion the summary risk ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.38–2.14). Analysis restricted to post-menopausal women showed no association between either dietary or urinary cadmium and subsequent breast cancer incidence and mortality.
Overall, we found scant evidence of a positive association between cadmium and breast cancer. Available data were too limited to carry out stratified analyses according to age, smoking and hormone receptor status. Therefore, possible associations between cadmium exposure and breast cancer in selected subgroups cannot be entirely ruled out.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Following the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) last December 2019 in China, Italy was the first European country to be severely affected, with the first local ...case diagnosed on 20 February 2020. The virus spread quickly, particularly in the North of Italy, with three regions (Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna) being the most severely affected. These three regions accounted for >80% of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases when the tight lockdown was established (March 8). These regions include one of Europe's areas of heaviest air pollution, the Po valley. Air pollution has been recently proposed as a possible risk factor of SARS-CoV-2 infection, due to its adverse effect on immunity and to the possibility that polluted air may even carry the virus. We investigated the association between air pollution and subsequent spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection within these regions. We collected NO2 tropospheric levels using satellite data available at the European Space Agency before the lockdown. Using a multivariable restricted cubic spline regression model, we compared NO2 levels with SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence rate at different time points after the lockdown, namely March 8, 22 and April 5, in the 28 provinces of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna. We found little association of NO2 levels with SARS-CoV-2 prevalence up to about 130 μmol/m2, while a positive association was evident at higher levels at each time point. Notwithstanding the limitations of the use of aggregated data, these findings lend some support to the hypothesis that high levels of air pollution may favor the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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•Air pollution might increase susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.•We examined infection prevalence in the most affected regions in Northern Italy.•Satellite-detected tropospheric nitrogen dioxide was used to assess air pollution.•High NO2 levels were associated with spread of the infection.•A causal role remains speculative, given ecologic biases and uncontrolled confounding.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The use of flexible models for the relationship between a quantitative covariate and the response variable can be limited by the difficulty in interpreting the regression coefficients. In this ...article, we present a new postestimation command, xblc, that facilitates tabular and graphical presentation of these relationships. Cubic splines are given special emphasis. We illustrate the command through several worked examples using data from a large study of Swedish men on the relation between physical activity and the occurrence of lower urinary tract symptoms.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Several studies have analyzed the relationship between coffee consumption and mortality, but the shape of the association remains unclear. We conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective ...studies to examine the dose-response associations between coffee consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all cancers. Pertinent studies, published between 1966 and 2013, were identified by searching PubMed and by reviewing the reference lists of the selected articles. Prospective studies in which investigators reported relative risks of mortality from all causes, CVD, and all cancers for 3 or more categories of coffee consumption were eligible. Results from individual studies were pooled using a random-effects model. Twenty-one prospective studies, with 121,915 deaths and 997,464 participants, met the inclusion criteria. There was strong evidence of nonlinear associations between coffee consumption and mortality for all causes and CVD (P for nonlinearity < 0.001). The largest risk reductions were observed for 4 cups/day for all-cause mortality (16%, 95% confidence interval: 13, 18) and 3 cups/day for CVD mortality (21%, 95% confidence interval: 16, 26). Coffee consumption was not associated with cancer mortality. Findings from this meta-analysis indicate that coffee consumption is inversely associated with all-cause and CVD mortality.
To evaluate the effect of major postoperative complications on health-related quality of life (HRQL) in 5-year survivors of esophageal cancer surgery.
This study was based on the Swedish Esophageal ...and Cardia Cancer register with almost complete nationwide coverage and data on esophageal cancer surgery collected prospectively between 2001 and 2005. Patients who were alive 5 years after surgery were eligible. HRQL was assessed longitudinally until 5 years after surgery by using the validated European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire C30 and OES18. Linear mixed models were used to assess the mean score difference (MD) with 95% CIs of each aspect of HRQL in patients with or without major postoperative complications. Adjustment was made for several potential confounders.
Of 153 patients who survived 5 years, 141 patients (92%) answered the 5-year HRQL questionnaires. Of these individuals, 46 patients (33%) sustained a major postoperative complication. Dyspnea (MD, 15; 95% CI, 6 to 23), fatigue (MD, 13; 95% CI, 5 to 20), and eating restrictions (MD, 10; 95% CI, 2 to 17) were clinically and statistically significantly deteriorated throughout the follow-up in patients with major postoperative complications compared with patients without major complications. Although problems with choking declined to levels comparable with patients without major postoperative complications, sleep difficulties and gastroesophageal reflux progressively worsened during follow-up.
The occurrence of postoperative complications exerts a long-lasting negative effect on HRQL in patients who survive 5 years after esophagectomy for cancer.
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