Despite thousands of influenza cases annually recorded by surveillance systems around the globe, estimating the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza is challenging.
We develop an ...age-structured mathematical model to influenza transmission to analyze ten consecutive seasons (from 2010 to 2011 to 2019-2020) of influenza epidemiological and virological data reported to the Italian surveillance system.
We estimate that 18.4-29.3% of influenza infections are detected by the surveillance system. Influenza infection attack rate varied between 12.7 and 30.5% and is generally larger for seasons characterized by the circulation of A/H3N2 and/or B types/subtypes. Individuals aged 14 years or less are the most affected age-segment of the population, with A viruses especially affecting children aged 0-4 years. For all influenza types/subtypes, the mean effective reproduction number is estimated to be generally in the range 1.09-1.33 (9 out of 10 seasons) and never exceeding 1.41. The age-specific susceptibility to infection appears to be a type/subtype-specific feature.
The results presented in this study provide insights on type/subtype-specific transmission patterns of seasonal influenza that could be instrumental to fine-tune immunization strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at limiting seasonal influenza spread and burden.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Global mitigation strategies to tackle the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2 have produced a significant decrease of the severity of 2020/21 seasonal influenza, which might result in a reduced population ...natural immunity for the upcoming 2021/22 influenza season. To predict the spread of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of prevention and control measures, we present an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including the role of social mixing patterns and the impact of age-stratified vaccination strategies and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) such as school closures, partial lockdown, as well as the adoption of personal protective equipment and the practice of hand hygiene. We find that vaccination campaigns with standard coverage would produce a remarkable mitigation of the spread of the disease in moderate influenza seasons, making the adoption of NPIs unnecessary. However, in case of severe seasonal epidemics, a standard vaccination coverage would not be sufficiently effective in fighting the epidemic, thus implying that a combination with the adoption of NPIs is necessary to contain the disease. Alternatively, our results show that the enhancement of the vaccination coverage would reduce the need to adopt NPIs, thus limiting the economic and social impacts that NPIs might produce. Our results highlight the need to respond to the influenza epidemic by strengthening the vaccination coverage.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
SARS-CoV-2 symptoms are non-specific and can range from asymptomatic presentation to severe pneumonia. Asymptomatic subjects carrying SARS-CoV-2 often remain undiagnosed and it is still debated ...whether they develop immunoglobulins (Ig) and how long they persist. The aim of this study was to investigate the development and persistence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic subjects infected by the virus. This follow-up study was performed on the 31 asymptomatic subjects who presented a positive nasal swab or serology against SARS-CoV-2 (Ig against Spike-RBD) in the first part of the UNICORN study (March 2020) aimed at attesting previous or current contacts with the virus in the personnel of the University of Milan. Eight weeks after the first Ig measure, these subjects were invited to donate a second blood sample for testing serum antibodies (IgM, IgG and total antibodies) and to fill-in a structured questionnaire. About 80% of asymptomatic subjects did not present circulating immunoglobulins against SARS-CoV-2 after 8 weeks from a positive nasal swab against the virus. Moreover, in more than 40% of these subjects, no Ig against SARS-CoV-2 were detected at any time. Finally, about two third of subjects with immunoglobulins at baseline did not present IgG against SARS-CoV-2 after 8 weeks. The majority of subjects who developed an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection do not present antibodies against the RBD-spike protein after 8 weeks of follow-up. These data should be taken into account for the interpretation of the serological evidences on SARS-CoV-2 that are emerging nowadays.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Congenital Cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is a serious global public health issue that can cause irreversible fetal and neonatal congenital defects in symptomatic or asymptomatic newborns at birth. In ...absence of universal cCMV screening, the retrospective diagnosis of cCMV infection in children is only possible by examining Dried Blood Spot (DBS) samples routinely collected at birth and stored for different time spans depending on the newborn screening regulations in force in different countries. In this article, we summarize the arguments in favor of long-term DBS sample storage for detecting cCMV infection.
CMV infection is the most common cause of congenital infection resulting in severe defects and anomalies that can be apparent at birth or develop in early childhood. Sensorineural hearing loss is the most frequent consequence of cCMV infection and may have a late onset and progress in the first years of life. The virological diagnosis of cCMV is essential for clinical research and public health practices. In fact, in order to assess the natural history of CMV infection and distinguish between congenital or acquired infection, children should be diagnosed early by analyzing biological samples collected in the first weeks of life (3 weeks by using viral culture and 2 weeks by molecular assays), which, unfortunately, are not always available for asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic children. It now seems possible to overcome this problem since the CMV-DNA present in the blood of congenitally infected newborns can be easily retrieved from the DBS samples on the Guthrie cards routinely collected and stored within 3 days from birth in the neonatal screening program for genetic and congenital diseases. Early collection and long-term storage are inexpensive methods for long-term bio-banking and are the key points of DBS testing for the detection of cCMV.
DBS sampling is a reliable and inexpensive method for long-term bio-banking, which enables to diagnose known infectious diseases - including cCMV - as well as diseases not jet recognized, therefore their storage sites and long-term storage conditions and durations should be the subject of political decision-making.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•Both adjuvanted trivalent (aTIV) and unadjuvanted quadrivalent (QIVe) flu vaccines are used in older adults.•It is largely unknown if aTIV is more effective than QIVe against confirmed ...influenza.•aTIV was more effective than QIVe against severe laboratory-confirmed influenza.•The relative effectiveness of aTIV vs QIVe may be biased by confounding by indication.
In this study, we aimed to investigate the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of the MF59-adjuvanted trivalent (aTIV) and non-adjuvanted quadrivalent (QIVe) egg-based standard-dose vaccines against severe laboratory-confirmed influenza.
This test-negative case-control study was conducted in a hospital setting during four recent Italian influenza seasons (from 2018/19 to 2021/22). The clinical outcome was severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) with laboratory confirmation diagnosed among subjects aged ≥65 years. rVE of aTIV versus QIVe was estimated through propensity score matching followed by logistic regression.
The influenza virus circulated to a significant extent only during the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons. The final population included 512 vaccinated older adults, of which 83 were cases and 429 were test-negative controls. aTIV and QIVe users differed substantially from the point of view of several baseline characteristics. The propensity score adjusted rVE of aTIV vs QIVe was 59.2% (95% CI: 14.6%, 80.5%), 54.7% (95% CI: -28.7%, 84.0%) and 56.9% (95% CI: -7.8%, 82.8%) against any influenza, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively.
aTIV was more effective than QIVe in preventing laboratory-confirmed SARI. The benefits of aTIV may be obscured by confounding indication.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Lysozyme (E.C. 3.2.1.17), an about 14 kDa protein and pI 11, widely spread in nature, is present in humans mainly in milk, saliva, and intestinal mucus as a part of innate defense mechanisms. It is ...endowed with antimicrobial activity due to its action as an N-acetylmuramidase, cleaving the 1-4β glycosidic linkage in the peptidoglycan layer of Gram-positive bacteria. This antimicrobial activity is exerted only against a limited number of Gram-negative bacteria. Different action mechanisms are proposed to explain its activity against Gram-negative bacteria, viruses, and fungi. The antiviral activity prompted the study of a possible application of lysozyme in the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Among the different sources of lysozyme, the chicken egg albumen was chosen, being the richest source of this protein (c-type lysozyme, 129 amino acids). Interestingly, the activity of lysozyme hydrochloride against SARS-CoV-2 was related to the heating (to about 100 °C) of this molecule. A chemical-physical characterization was required to investigate the possible modifications of native lysozyme hydrochloride by heat treatment. The FTIR analysis of the two preparations of lysozyme hydrochloride showed appreciable differences in the secondary structure of the two protein chains. HPLC and NMR analyses, as well as the enzymatic activity determination, did not show significant modifications.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infections worldwide. While historically RSV research has been focused on children, data on RSV infection in adults are ...limited. The goal of this study was to establish the prevalence of RSV in community-dwelling Italian adults and analyze its genetic variability during the 2021/22 winter season.
In this cross-sectional study, a random sample of naso-/oropharyngeal specimens from symptomatic adults seeking for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing between December 2021 and March 2022 were tested for RSV and other respiratory pathogens by means of reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. RSV-positive samples were further molecularly characterized by sequence analysis.
Of 1,213 samples tested, 1.6% (95% CI: 0.9-2.4%) were positive for RSV and subgroups A (44.4%) and B (55.6%) were identified in similar proportions. The epidemic peak occurred in December 2021, when the RSV prevalence was as high as 4.6% (95% CI: 2.2-8.3%). The prevalence of RSV detection was similar (p = 0.64) to that of influenza virus (1.9%). All RSV A and B strains belonged to the ON1 and BA genotypes, respectively. Most (72.2%) RSV-positive samples were also positive for other pathogens being SARS-CoV-2, Streptococcus pneumoniae and rhinovirus the most frequent. RSV load was significantly higher among mono-detections than co-detections.
During the 2021/22 winter season, characterized by the predominant circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and some non-pharmaceutical containment measures still in place, a substantial proportion of Italian adults tested positive for genetically diversified strains of both RSV subtypes. In view of the upcoming registration of vaccines, establishment of the National RSV surveillance system is urgently needed.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
In the night of February 20, 2020, the first epidemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outside Asia was uncovered by the identification of its first patient in Lombardy region, Italy. In ...the following weeks, Lombardy experienced a sudden increase in the number of ascertained infections and strict measures were imposed to contain the epidemic spread.
We analyzed official records of cases occurred in Lombardy to characterize the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during the early phase of the outbreak. A line list of laboratory-confirmed cases was set up and later retrospectively consolidated, using standardized interviews to ascertained cases and their close contacts. We provide estimates of the serial interval, of the basic reproduction number, and of the temporal variation of the net reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2.
Epidemiological investigations detected over 500 cases (median age: 69, IQR: 57–78) before the first COVID-19 diagnosed patient (February 20, 2020), and suggested that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in at least 222 out of 1506 (14.7%) municipalities with sustained transmission across all the Lombardy provinces. We estimated the mean serial interval to be 6.6 days (95% CrI, 0.7–19). Our estimates of the basic reproduction number range from 2.6 in Pavia (95% CI, 2.1–3.2) to 3.3 in Milan (95% CI, 2.9–3.8). A decreasing trend in the net reproduction number was observed following the detection of the first case.
At the time of first case notification, COVID-19 was already widespread in the entire Lombardy region. This may explain the large number of critical cases experienced by this region in a very short timeframe. The slight decrease of the reproduction number observed in the early days after February 20, 2020 might be due to increased population awareness and early interventions implemented before the regional lockdown imposed on March 8, 2020.
•Over 500 cases (median age: 69, IQR: 57–78) declaring symptom onset before the notification of the first case (20 February 2020) were retrospectively detected.•SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in at least 222 out of 1506 (14.7%) municipalities of Lombardy.•The estimated mean serial interval was 6.6 days (95% CrI, 0.7–19).•The basic reproduction number in the 12 provinces of Lombardy ranged from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.1–3.2) to 3.3 (95% CI, 2.9–3.8).•A decreasing trend in the net reproduction number following the detection of the epidemic and the introduction of the first restrictive measures.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
BACKGROUND:Human parechovirus (HPeV) and enterovirus (EV) infections are widespread and can lead to a broad range of symptoms, from the common cold to severe disease (SD). Because of the lack of ...Italian data, this 4-year retrospective cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the frequency, seasonality and molecular characteristics of EV and HPeV circulating in children younger than 5 years.
METHODS:A total of 812 samples were collected from children ≤5 years (56.5% males; median age20.6 months; interquartile range30.1 months) from September 2010 to August 2014. Two real-time RT-PCR assays were used for EV/HPeV and EV-D68 detection. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the EV-VP1 gene and the HPeV–VP3/VP1 junction.
RESULTS:16.1% and 5.2% of samples were EV- and HPeV-positive, respectively. One sample was EV-D68-positive. The majority (nearly 80%) of EV/HPeV-positive samples was detected in children ≤3 years, during the summer/autumn seasons. The risk of EV infection was higher in children presenting with SD, whereas the risk of infection from HPeV was higher in infants ≤1 year. Most (61.7%) of molecularly characterized EVs belonged to species B, followed by A (29.4%). The majority (66.7%) of characterized HPeVs were type 1, followed by types 3 (20%) and 6 (13.3%).
CONCLUSIONS:This study shows the significant impact of EV/HPeV circulation in children, particularly among those ≤3 years and during and early autumn, with different pattern of viral strains. The implementation of a national surveillance system could clarify the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of these viruses in the general population.
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