This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980-2000. This model was designed for the United Nations ...Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI), which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.
In this trial in nondiabetic patients with insulin resistance and a recent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, pioglitazone was associated with a lower risk of stroke and MI than was ...placebo but with a higher risk of weight gain, edema, and bone fracture.
Ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) affect more than 14 million persons worldwide annually.
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Affected patients are at increased risk for future cardiovascular events,
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and prevention of these adverse outcomes is a major goal in their care.
Treatment of insulin resistance represents a potential new preventive strategy that could be added to standard care after ischemic stroke or TIA.
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Insulin resistance is nearly universal in patients with type 2 diabetes but is also present in more than 50% of patients without diabetes who have had an ischemic stroke or a TIA.
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The presence of insulin resistance increases . . .
The growing concern for loss of services once provided by natural ecosystems is getting increasing attention. However, the accelerating rate of natural resources destruction calls for rapid and ...global action. With often very limited budgets, environmental agencies and NGOs need cost-efficient ways to quickly convince decision-makers that sound management of natural resources can help to protect human lives and their welfare. The methodology described in this paper, is based on geospatial and statistical analysis, involving simple Geographical Information System (GIS) and remote sensing algorithms. It is based on free or very low-cost data. It aims to scientifically assess the potential role of vegetation in mitigating landslides triggered by earthquakes by normalising for other factors such as slopes and distance from active fault. The methodology was applied to the 2005 North Pakistan/India earthquake which generated a large number of victims and hundreds of landslides. The study shows that if slopes and proximity from active fault are the main susceptibility factors for post landslides triggered by earthquakes in this area, the results clearly revealed that areas covered by denser vegetation suffered less and smaller landslides than areas with thinner (or devoid of) vegetation cover. Short distance from roads/trails and rivers also proved to be pertinent factors in increasing landslides susceptibility. This project is a component of a wider initiative involving the Global Resource Information Database Europe from the United Nations Environment Programme, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the Institute of Geomatics and Risk Analysis from the University of Lausanne and the "institut universitaire d'études du développement" from the University of Geneva.
Herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia occur more often with increasing age. In this controlled trial among 38,546 adults 60 years of age or older, vaccination with a live attenuated ...varicella–zoster vaccine reduced the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia by 66.5 percent (as compared with placebo) and the incidence of herpes zoster by 51.3 percent.
In adults 60 years of age or older, vaccination with a live attenuated varicella–zoster vaccine reduced the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia by 66.5 percent (as compared with placebo) and the incidence of herpes zoster by 51.3 percent.
Herpes zoster, or shingles, is characterized by unilateral radicular pain and a vesicular rash that is generally limited to a single dermatome.
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Herpes zoster results from reactivation of latent varicella–zoster virus (VZV) within the sensory ganglia.
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The incidence and severity of herpes zoster increase with advancing age; more than half of all persons in whom herpes zoster develops are older than 60 years. Complications occur in almost 50 percent of older persons with herpes zoster.
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The most frequent debilitating complication is postherpetic neuralgia, a neuropathic pain syndrome that persists or develops after the dermatomal rash has healed. . . .
With growing world population and concentration in urban and coastal areas, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing and results in higher risk of human and economic losses. Improving the ...identification of areas, population and assets potentially exposed to natural hazards is essential to reduce the consequences of such events. Disaster risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Modelling risk at the global level requires accessing and processing a large number of data, from numerous collaborating centres. These data need to be easily updated, and there is a need for centralizing access to this information as well as simplifying its use for non GIS specialists. The Hyogo Framework for Action provides the mandate for data sharing, so that governments and international development agencies can take appropriate decision for disaster risk reduction. Timely access and easy integration of geospatial data are essential to support efforts in Disaster Risk Reduction. However various issues in data availability, accessibility and integration limit the use of such data. In consequence, a framework that facilitate sharing and exchange of geospatial data on natural hazards should improve decision-making process. The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform is a highly interactive web-based GIS portal supported by a Spatial Data Infrastructure that offers free and interoperable access to more than 60 global data sets on nine types of natural hazards (tropical cyclones and related storm surges, drought, earthquakes, biomass fires, floods, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions) and related exposure and risk. This application portrays an easy-to-use online interactive mapping interface so that users can easily work with it and seamlessly integrate data in their own data flow using fully compliant OGC Web Services (OWS).
The tsunami that deeply impacted the North Indian Ocean shores on 26 December 2004, called for urgent rehabilitation of coastal infrastructures to restore the livelihood of local populations. A ...spatial and statistical analysis was performed to identify what geomorphological and biological configurations (mangroves forests, coral and other coastal vegetation) are susceptible to decrease or increase coastal vulnerability to tsunami. The results indicate that the width of flooded land strip was, in vast majority, influenced by the distance to fault lines as well as inclination and length of proximal slope. Areas covered by seagrass beds were less impacted, whereas areas behind coral reefs were more affected. The mangroves forests identified in the study were all located in sheltered areas, thus preventing to address the potential protecting role of mangroves forests.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Longitudinal studies in gerontology are characterized by termination of measurement from death. Death is related to many important gerontological outcomes, such as functional disability, and may, ...over time, change the composition of an older study population. For these reasons, treating death as noninformative censoring of a longitudinal outcome may result in biased estimates of regression coefficients related to that outcome.
In a longitudinal study of community-living older persons, we analytically and graphically illustrate the dependence between death and functional disability. Relative to survivors, decedents display a rapid decline of functional ability in the months preceding death. Death's strong relationship with functional disability demonstrates that death is not independent of this outcome and, hence, leads to informative censoring. We also demonstrate the "healthy survivor effect" that results from death's selection effect, with respect to functional disability, on the longitudinal makeup of an older study population.
We briefly survey commonly used approaches for longitudinal modeling of gerontological outcomes, with special emphasis on their treatment of death. Most common methods treat death as noninformative censoring. However, joint modeling methods are described that take into account any dependency between death and a longitudinal outcome.
In longitudinal studies of older persons, death is often related to gerontological outcomes and, therefore, cannot be safely assumed to represent noninformative censoring. Such analyzes must account for the dependence between outcomes and death as well as the changing nature of the cohort.
CONTEXT.— Measures of physical and cognitive function are strong prognostic predictors
of hospital outcomes for older persons, but current risk adjustment and burden
of illness assessment indices do ...not include these measures. OBJECTIVE.— To evaluate and validate the contribution of functional measures to
the ability of 5 standard burden of illness indices (Charlson, Acute Physiology
and Chronic Health Evaluation APACHE II, Disease Staging, All Patient Refined
Diagnosis Related Groups, and a clinician's subjective rating) in predicting
90-day and 2-year mortality among older hospitalized patients. DESIGN.— Two prospective cohort studies. SETTING.— General medicine service, university teaching hospital. PATIENTS.— For the development cohort, 207 consecutive patients aged 70 years or
older, and for the validation cohort, 318 comparable patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE.— Death within 90 days and 2 years from the index admission. RESULTS.— In the development cohort, 29 patients (14%) and 81 patients (39%) died
within 90 days and 2 years, respectively. A functional axis was developed
using 3 independent risk factors: impairment in instrumental activities of
daily living, Mini-Mental State Examination score of less than 20, and shortened
Geriatric Depression Scale score of 7 or higher, creating low-, intermediate-,
and high-risk groups with associated mortality rates of 20%, 32%, and 60%,
respectively (P<.001); the C statistic for the
final model was 0.69. The corresponding mortality rates in the validation
cohort, in which 59 (19%) and 138 (43%) died within 90 days and 2 years, respectively,
were 24%, 45%, and 60% (P<.001); the C statistic
for the final model was 0.66. For each burden of illness index, the functional
axis contributed significantly to the predictive ability of the model for
both 90 days and 2 years. When the functional axis and each burden of illness
measure were analyzed in cross-stratified format, mortality rates increased
progressively from low-risk to high-risk functional groups within strata of
burden of illness indices (double-gradient phenomenon). The contributions
of functional and burden of illness measures were substantive and interrelated. CONCLUSIONS.— Functional measures are strong predictors of 90-day and 2-year mortality
after hospitalization. Furthermore, these measures contribute substantially
to the prognostic ability of 5 burden of illness indices. Optimal risk adjustment
for older hospitalized patients should incorporate functional status variables.
Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns have induced an acute decrease in Andean glaciers, thus leading to additional stress on water supply. To adapt to climate changes, local ...governments need information on the rate of glacier area and volume losses and on current ice thickness. Remote sensing analyses of Coropuna glacier (Peru) delineate an acute glaciated area decline between 1955 and 2008. We tested how volume changes can be estimated with remote sensing and GIS techniques using digital elevation models derived from both topographic maps and satellite images. Ice thickness was measured in 2004 using a Ground Penetrating Radar coupled with a Ground Positioning System during a field expedition. It provided profiles of ice thickness on different slopes, orientations and altitudes. These were used to model the current glacier volume using Geographical Information System and statistical multiple regression techniques. The results revealed a significant glacier volume loss; however the uncertainty is higher than the measured volume loss. We also provided an estimate of the remaining volume. The field study provided the scientific evidence needed by COPASA, a local Peruvian NGO, and GTZ, the German international cooperation agency, in order to alert local governments and communities and guide them in adopting new climate change adaptation policies.
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