Dietary sugar, especially in liquid form, increases risk of dental caries, adiposity, and type 2 diabetes. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016 and ...implemented in April 2018 and charges manufacturers and importers at £0.24 per litre for drinks with over 8 g sugar per 100 mL (high levy category), £0.18 per litre for drinks with 5 to 8 g sugar per 100 mL (low levy category), and no charge for drinks with less than 5 g sugar per 100 mL (no levy category). Fruit juices and milk-based drinks are exempt. We measured the impact of the SDIL on price, product size, number of soft drinks on the marketplace, and the proportion of drinks over the lower levy threshold of 5 g sugar per 100 mL.
We analysed data on a total of 209,637 observations of soft drinks over 85 time points between September 2015 and February 2019, collected from the websites of the leading supermarkets in the UK. The data set was structured as a repeat cross-sectional study. We used controlled interrupted time series to assess the impact of the SDIL on changes in level and slope for the 4 outcome variables. Equivalent models were run for potentially levy-eligible drink categories ('intervention' drinks) and levy-exempt fruit juices and milk-based drinks ('control' drinks). Observed results were compared with counterfactual scenarios based on extrapolation of pre-SDIL trends. We found that in February 2019, the proportion of intervention drinks over the lower levy sugar threshold had fallen by 33.8 percentage points (95% CI: 33.3-34.4, p < 0.001). The price of intervention drinks in the high levy category had risen by £0.075 (£0.037-0.115, p < 0.001) per litre-a 31% pass through rate-whilst prices of intervention drinks in the low levy category and no levy category had fallen and risen by smaller amounts, respectively. Whilst the product size of branded high levy and low levy drinks barely changed after implementation of the SDIL (-7 mL -23 to 11 mL and 16 mL 6-27ml, respectively), there were large changes to product size of own-brand drinks with an increase of 172 mL (133-214 mL) for high levy drinks and a decrease of 141 mL (111-170 mL) for low levy drinks. The number of available drinks that were in the high levy category when the SDIL was announced was reduced by 3 (-6 to 12) by the implementation of the SDIL. Equivalent models for control drinks provided little evidence of impact of the SDIL. These results are not sales weighted, so do not give an account of how sugar consumption from drinks may have changed over the time period.
The results suggest that the SDIL incentivised many manufacturers to reduce sugar in soft drinks. Some of the cost of the levy to manufacturers and importers was passed on to consumers as higher prices but not always on targeted drinks. These changes could reduce population exposure to liquid sugars and associated health risks.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summary Background One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been ...devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. Methods For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. Findings The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529 000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314 000–736 000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26–33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29–71%, depending on their stringency. Interpretation The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. Funding Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
AbstractObjectivesTo study trends in stroke mortality rates, event rates, and case fatality, and to explain the extent to which the reduction in stroke mortality rates was influenced by changes in ...stroke event rates or case fatality.DesignPopulation based study.SettingPerson linked routine hospital and mortality data, England.Participants795 869 adults aged 20 and older who were admitted to hospital with acute stroke or died from stroke.Main outcome measuresStroke mortality rates, stroke event rates (stroke admission or stroke death without admission), and case fatality within 30 days after stroke.ResultsBetween 2001 and 2010 stroke mortality rates decreased by 55%, stroke event rates by 20%, and case fatality by 40%. The study population included 358 599 (45%) men and 437 270 (55%) women. Average annual change in mortality rate was −6.0% (95% confidence interval −6.2% to −5.8%) in men and −6.1% (−6.3% to −6.0%) in women, in stroke event rate was −1.3% (−1.4% to −1.2%) in men and −2.1% (−2.2 to −2.0) in women, and in case fatality was −4.7% (−4.9% to −4.5%) in men and −4.4% (−4.5% to −4.2%) in women. Mortality and case fatality but not event rate declined in all age groups: the stroke event rate decreased in older people but increased by 2% each year in adults aged 35 to 54 years. Of the total decline in mortality rates, 71% was attributed to the decline in case fatality (78% in men and 66% in women) and the remainder to the reduction in stroke event rates. The contribution of the two factors varied between age groups. Whereas the reduction in mortality rates in people younger than 55 years was due to the reduction in case fatality, in the oldest age group (≥85 years) reductions in case fatality and event rates contributed nearly equally.ConclusionsDeclines in case fatality, probably driven by improvements in stroke care, contributed more than declines in event rates to the overall reduction in stroke mortality. Mortality reduction in men and women younger than 55 was solely a result of a decrease in case fatality, whereas stroke event rates increased in the age group 35 to 54 years. The increase in stroke event rates in young adults is a concern. This suggests that stroke prevention needs to be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of stroke in people younger than 55 years.
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BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background
The relationships between physical activity (PA) and both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have predominantly been estimated using categorical measures of ...PA, masking the shape of the dose‐response relationship. In this systematic review and meta‐analysis, for the very first time we are able to derive a single continuous PA metric to compare the association between PA and CVD/T2DM, both before and after adjustment for a measure of body weight.
Methods and Results
The search was applied to MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases for all studies published from January 1981 to March 2014. A total of 36 studies (3 439 874 participants and 179 393 events, during an average follow‐up period of 12.3 years) were included in the analysis (33 pertaining to CVD and 3 to T2DM). An increase from being inactive to achieving recommended PA levels (150 minutes of moderate‐intensity aerobic activity per week) was associated with lower risk of CVD mortality by 23%, CVD incidence by 17%, and T2DM incidence by 26% (relative risk RR, 0.77 0.71–0.84), (RR, 0.83 0.77–0.89), and (RR, 0.74 0.72–0.77), respectively, after adjustment for body weight.
Conclusions
By using a single continuous metric for PA levels, we were able to make a comparison of the effect of PA on CVD incidence and mortality including myocardial infarct (MI), stroke, and heart failure, as well as T2DM. Effect sizes were generally similar for CVD and T2DM, and suggested that the greatest gain in health is associated with moving from inactivity to small amounts of PA.
Traditional methods for creating food composition tables struggle to cope with the large number of products and the rapid pace of change in the food and drink marketplace. This paper introduces ...foodDB, a big data approach to the analysis of this marketplace, and presents analyses illustrating its research potential.
foodDB has been used to collect data weekly on all foods and drinks available on six major UK supermarket websites since November 2017. As of June 2018, foodDB has 3 193 171 observations of 128 283 distinct food and drink products measured at multiple timepoints.
Weekly extraction of nutrition and availability data of products was extracted from the webpages of the supermarket websites. This process was automated with a codebase written in Python.
Analyses using a single weekly timepoint of 97 368 total products in March 2018 identified 2699 ready meals and pizzas, and showed that lower price ready meals had significantly lower levels of fat, saturates, sugar and salt (p<0.001). Longitudinal analyses of 903 pizzas revealed that 10.8% changed their nutritional formulation over 6 months, and 29.9% were either discontinued or new market entries.
foodDB is a powerful new tool for monitoring the food and drink marketplace, the comprehensive sampling and granularity of collection provides power for revealing analyses of the relationship between nutritional quality and marketing of branded foods, timely observation of product reformulation and other changes to the food marketplace.
The consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased mortality from chronic diseases, and as a result, it has been classified by the World Health Organization as carcinogenic ...(processed meat) and probably carcinogenic (red meat) to humans. One policy response is to regulate red and processed meat consumption similar to other carcinogens and foods of public health concerns. Here we describe a market-based approach of taxing red and processed meat according to its health impacts.
We calculated economically optimal tax levels for 149 world regions that would account for (internalize) the health costs associated with ill-health from red and processed meat consumption, and we used a coupled modelling framework to estimate the impacts of optimal taxation on consumption, health costs, and non-communicable disease mortality. Health impacts were estimated using a global comparative risk assessment framework, and economic responses were estimated using international data on health costs, prices, and price elasticities.
The health-related costs to society attributable to red and processed meat consumption in 2020 amounted to USD 285 billion (sensitivity intervals based on epidemiological uncertainty (SI), 93-431), three quarters of which were due to processed meat consumption. Under optimal taxation, prices for processed meat increased by 25% on average, ranging from 1% in low-income countries to over 100% in high-income countries, and prices for red meat increased by 4%, ranging from 0.2% to over 20%. Consumption of processed meat decreased by 16% on average, ranging from 1% to 25%, whilst red meat consumption remained stable as substitution for processed meat compensated price-related reductions. The number of deaths attributable to red and processed meat consumption decreased by 9% (222,000; SI, 38,000-357,000), and attributable health costs decreased by 14% (USD 41 billion; SI, 10-57) globally, in each case with greatest reductions in high and middle-income countries.
Including the social health cost of red and processed meat consumption in the price of red and processed meat could lead to significant health and environmental benefits, in particular in high and middle-income countries. The optimal tax levels estimated in this study are context-specific and can complement the simple rules of thumb currently used for setting health-motivated tax levels.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background The provision and over-consumption of foods high in energy, saturated fat, free sugars or salt are important risk factors for poor diet and ill-health. In the UK, policies seek to drive ...improvement through voluntary reformulation of single nutrients in key food groups. There has been little consideration of the overall progress by individual companies. This study assesses recent changes in the nutrient profile of brands and products sold by the top 10 food and beverage companies in the UK. Methods The FSA/Ofcom nutrient profile model was applied to the nutrient composition data for all products manufactured by the top 10 food and beverage companies and weighted by volume sales. The mean nutrient profiling score, on a scale of 1-100 with thresholds for healthy products being 62 for foods and 68 for drinks, was used to rank companies and food categories between 2015 and 2018, and to calculate the proportion of individual products and sales that are considered by the UK Government to be healthy. Results Between 2015 and 2018 there was little change in the sales-weighted nutrient profiling score of the top 10 companies (49 to 51; p = 0.28) or the proportion of products classified as healthy (46% to 48%; p = 0.23). Of the top five brands sold by each of the ten companies, only six brands among ten companies improved their nutrient profiling score by 20% or more. The proportion of total volume sales classified as healthy increased from 44% to 51% (p = 0.07) driven by an increase in the volume sales of bottled water, low/no calorie carbonates and juices, but after removing soft drinks, the proportion of foods classified as healthy decreased from 7% to 6% (p = 33). Conclusions The UK voluntary reformulation policies, setting targets for reductions in calories, sugar and salt, do not appear to have led to significant changes in the nutritional quality of foods, though there has been progress in soft drinks where the soft drink industry levy also applies. Further policy action is needed to incentivise companies to make more substantive changes in product composition to support consumers to achieve a healthier diet.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This review assessed the effects of environmental labels on consumers’ demand for more sustainable food products. Six electronic databases were searched for experimental studies of ecolabels and food ...choices. We followed standard Cochrane methods and results were synthesized using vote counting. Fifty-six studies (N = 42,768 participants, 76 interventions) were included. Outcomes comprised selection (n = 14), purchase (n = 40) and consumption (n = 2). The ecolabel was presented as text (n = 36), logo (n = 13) or combination (n = 27). Message types included: organic (n = 25), environmentally sustainable (n = 27), greenhouse gas emissions (n = 17), and assorted “other” message types (n = 7). Ecolabels were tested in actual (n = 15) and hypothetical (n = 41) environments. Thirty-nine studies received an unclear or high RoB rating. Sixty comparisons favored the intervention and 16 favored control. Ecolabeling with a variety of messages and formats was associated with the selection and purchase of more sustainable food products.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
There are limited population-based national data on prognosis in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), particularly on long-term survival and the risk of recurrence.
Record linkage of ...hospital and mortality data identified 387 452 individuals in England who were admitted to hospital with a main diagnosis of AMI between 2004 and 2010 and who survived for at least 30 days. Seven years after an AMI, the risk of death from any cause in survivors of first or recurrent AMI was, respectively, 2 and 3 times higher than that in the English general population of equivalent age. For all survivors of a first AMI, the risk of a second AMI was highest during the first year and the cumulative risk increased more gradually thereafter. For men, 1- and 7-year cumulative risks were 5.6% (95% confidence interval CI, 5.5-5.7) and 13.9% (95% CI, 13.7-14.1); for women, they were 7.2% (95% CI, 7.1-7.4) and 16.2% (95% CI, 16.0-16.5). Older age, higher deprivation, no revascularization procedures, and presence of comorbidities were associated with higher recurrence risk.
Survivors of both first and recurrent AMI remained at a significantly higher risk of death compared with the general population for at least 7 years after the event. For survivors of first AMI, the influence of predisposing factors for second AMI lessened with time after the initial event. The results reinforce the importance of acute clinical care and secondary prevention in improving long-term prognosis of hospitalized AMI patients.
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