We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distribution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986–2003 in a 300 × 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers ...earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ≥ 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ≥ 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986–2003 and 0.63 for 1992–2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ≥ 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ≥ 5 earthquake forecast for 2005–2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 × 10 km cells.
Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are minimally disturbed by human activities and are sensitive indicators of climate variability. Accelerated lake expansion in the 2000s has been confirmed by both ...dramatic lake‐area increases (for 312 lakes larger than 10 km2) derived from optical images, and rapid water‐level rises (for 117 lakes with water‐level data) measured by satellite altimetry. However, the underlying climate causes remain unclear. This paper analyzes the relationship between the water‐level changes of lakes on the plateau and the potential driving factors, such as the glacier meltwater supply and a dependency on precipitation and runoff over the whole plateau and in each zone. The results show that the rates of change of non‐glacier‐fed lakes in the 2000s were as high as those of glacier‐fed lakes across the whole plateau and the lake‐level changes were closely associated with the lake supply coefficients (the basin/lake area ratio). The lake variations agreed well with the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. However, in different zones, especially at around 33°N north of the plateau, glacier‐fed lakes did exhibit faster lake level increases than no‐glacier‐fed lakes, indicating that the presence of a glacier meltwater supply augmented the precipitation‐driven lake expansions in these areas. Despite the absence of quantitative modeling due to limited data availability, this study provides qualitative support that the lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s have been driven primarily by changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration and not solely by the effect of glacier wastage.
Key Points
Accelerated increases in the lake area and water level on the TP in the 2000s
The accelerated lake growth is close related to increasing precipitation
The glacier meltwater supply augments the growth rates of the glacier‐fed lakes
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper reviews developments in qualitative research in language teaching since the year 2000, focusing on its contributions to the field and identifying issues that emerge. Its aims are to ...identify those areas in language teaching where qualitative research has the greatest potential and indicate what needs to be done to further improve the quality of its contribution. The paper begins by highlighting current trends and debates in the general area of qualitative research and offering a working definition of the term. At its core is an overview of developments in the new millennium based on the analysis of papers published in 15 journals related to the field of language teaching and a more detailed description, drawn from a range of sources, of exemplary contributions during that period. Issues of quality are also considered, using illustrative cases to point to aspects of published research that deserve closer attention in future work, and key publications on qualitative research practice are reviewed.
Deforestation has been widespread in the Northern Albertine Rift Landscape in rural Western Uganda. In this paper, we present perceptions from local residents and narratives from key informants on ...causes of forest loss during a 30-year period between 1985 and 2014. While the generic drivers we find are consistent with previous literature, we suggest that the specific context in which forest cover is lost in rural areas is path dependent, and this is vital for adequate management. In the Ugandan case, the history of the sugar industry and its relation to local political drivers and international considerations (e.g. biofuel) are prominent. Global drivers of forest loss therefore mask local-level complexities, but an amalgamation of local-level dynamics does not necessarily sum up to larger-scale manifestations (in a linear manner): striking a balance between understanding local-level and large-scale dynamics could be key in addressing the deforestation conundrum. We surveyed 263 households in 7 parishes around Budongo and Bugoma forests, and conducted 22 key informant interviews. Our findings indicate that the drivers and mechanisms of deforestation are local; they also vary between Budongo and Bugoma. Key amongst these include: agricultural expansion (28%–58.5% of the responses)—with large-scale commercial and small-scale subsistence farming significant around Budongo and Bugoma respectively; “poverty” (26%–76%) often alluding to heavy dependence on forests for livelihoods. Others include: population growth driven by dissimilar migratory patterns; and moving protected forest boundaries. Our data suggest that a combination of both local and key informant perceptions is instrumental in filling data gaps where a dearth of information is prevalent (especially around Bugoma forest), and is important for corroboration of other scientific data (e.g. remote sensing). However, a survey of wider literature indicates that there are significant issues missing from their stated views. While the continued expansion of cash-crop farming and lack of inclusion of local people in forest policy continues to raise concern, the stability of protected forest (i.e. Budongo and Bugoma) is encouraging and suggests a refocusing of the forest debate on practical working schemes for forest preservation and recovery might be the way forward for sustainable forestry and livelihoods.
•Global drivers of deforestation mask local-scale complexities.•Drivers and mechanisms of deforestation around Budongo and Bugoma are local and varied.•Comparison of forest loss between locations reveals different migration and agricultural dynamics.•Debate about forest loss might benefit on a refocus towards what works for forest preservation and recovery.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Increasing population and economic growth continue to drive China's demand for energy and water resources. The interaction of these resources is particularly important in China, where water resources ...are unevenly distributed, with limited availability in coal-rich regions. The “3 Red Lines” water policies were introduced in 2011; one of their aims is to reduce industrial water use, of which the energy sector is a part. This paper analyses current water withdrawals and consumption for all energy processes and assesses the sector's compliance with the industrial water policy under different scenarios, considering potential future policy and technological changes. The results show that future energy plans could conflict with the industrial water policy, but the amount of water used in the energy sector is highly dependant on technology choices, especially for power plant cooling. High electricity demand in the future is expected to be met mainly by coal and nuclear power, and planned inland development of nuclear power presents a new source of freshwater demand. Taking a holistic view of energy and water-for-energy enables the identification of co-benefits and trade-offs between energy and water policies that can facilitate the development of more compatible and sustainable energy and water plans.
•A whole systems analysis of current and future water used for energy is presented.•The energy sector's compliance with the “3 Red Lines” water policies is assessed.•Future energy plans could conflict with the “3 Red Lines” industrial water policy.•Water used for energy is highly dependant on technology choices.•Co-benefits and trade-offs between future energy and water plans are identified.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
The wide spectrum of novel applications for the LC-MS/MS-based analysis of thyroid hormone metabolites (THM) in blood samples and other biological specimen highlights the perspectives of this novel ...technology. However, thorough development of pre-analytical sample workup and careful validation of both pre-analytics and LC-MS/MS analytics, is needed, to allow for quantitative detection of the thyronome, which spans a broad concentration range in these biological samples.This minireview summarizes recent developments in advancing LC-MS/MS-based analytics and measurement of total concentrations of THM in blood specimen of humans, methods in part further refined in the context of previous achievements analyzing samples derived from cell-culture or tissues. Challenges and solutions to tackle efficient pre-analytic sample extraction and elimination of matrix interferences are compared. Options for automatization of pre-analytic sample-preparation and comprehensive coverage of the wide thyronome concentration range are presented. Conventional immunoassay versus LC-MS/MS-based determination of total and free THM concentrations are briefly compared.
Tyrosine and phenolic ring de-iodination of thyroid hormones (TH) is crucial for regulating their physiological activity. Furthermore, reactions such as de-carboxylation to thyronamines (TAM) and ...de-amination to thyroacetic acids (TAc) produce TH metabolites (THM) with distinct biological properties. This needs to be considered when studying effects of TH and THM. The accurate and precise quantitative analysis of TH and THM in cell culture supernatants and cell lysates are key procedures required for studying the in vitro metabolism of TH. We report here the development of a liquid-liquid extraction/isotope dilution-liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method for the quantification of 9 thyronines (TN) and 6 TAM in human hepatocellular carcinoma Hep G2 cell lysate extracts. In addition, we adapted the method to quantify TH, TAM and TAc, in cell lysates of FBS-depleted rat thyroid epithelium PCCL3 cells. The methods for both cell lines were validated by rigorous assessment of linearity, limits of quantification and detection (LLOQ and LLOD respectively), intra- and inter-day accuracy, precision, process efficiency (PE), matrix effect (ME) and relative recovery (RE). Calibration curves covering 11 concentrations (based on 400 μl of lysate) were linear in the range 0.016-50 nM and 0.010-50 nM for Hep G2 and PCCL3 cells respectively. The lower limits of quantification were in the range 0.031 to 1 nM. We applied the PCCL3 version of the LC-MS/MS method to the analysis of lysed cell extracts from PCCL3 cells that had been incubated with 3-iodo-L-thyronine (T1), 3-iodothyronamine (3-T1AM) and 3-iodothyroacetic acid (3-T1Ac). Over the course of 30 minutes incubation 3-T1AM was de-iodinated to 4-4-(2-aminoethylphenoxy)phenol (thyronamine, T0AM) and de-aminated to 3-T1Ac respectively, whilst T1 underwent de-iodination to T0. This data indicates avid metabolism of these mono-iodinated compounds and the utility of LC-MS/MS to quantify such cellular metabolism.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This research explores the relative influence of salespeople's attitudes toward selling a new product, perceptions of subjective norms, and self-efficacy on the development of selling intentions and, ...ultimately, the success of a new product launch. The longitudinal study employs a nonlinear growth curve model that leverages survey data from industrial salespeople and objective performance records of their daily sales during the first several months in the market of two new products: a new-to-market product and a line extension. By examining salesperson-level variance on new product performance, the authors suggest that managers should focus on increasing salesperson self-efficacy and positive attitudes toward selling the product to build selling intentions and quickly grow new product performance. They also suggest that sales managers should resist the temptation to rely on normative pressure during a new product introduction. Not only are subjective norms less effective in building selling intentions, but they also diminish the positive impact of attitudes and self-efficacy on salesperson intentions and constrain the positive relationships between intentions and performance and self-efficacy and performance.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Drainage reorganization generally occurs on geological time scales under unstable river network conditions. A few local‐scale studies indicate that recent climatic changes might accelerate the ...drainage reorganization process. However, large‐scale drainage reorganization during the modern era is rarely documented. This study examines ongoing drainage reorganization on the endorheic Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a primary result of drastic lake expansion. A total of 11 drainage system reorganization events comprising 24 different lake basins and covering a total area of 61,115 km2 occurred between 2000 and 2018. Assuming the continued growth rate of TP lakes, we project another 20 basins will be reorganized before 2030. These drainage basin reorganizations not only alter hydrological processes in the endorheic TP but may also cause the endorheic‐exorheic transition, leading to the upstream sprawl of the Yangtze River Basin and posing outburst flooding risks on China's key infrastructure such as the Qinghai‐Tibet Railway.
Plain Language Summary
Recent climatic changes have intensified the global hydrologic cycle, and have likely accelerated drainage system evolution. We have provided a holistic picture of ongoing drainage reorganization driven by drastic lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our results indicate that 24 different lake drainage systems have undergone reorganization between 2000 and 2018, and the number of basins is expected to increase to 44 by the year 2030. One notable drainage reorganization is between the endorheic Lake Yanhu and the exorheic Chumaer river, resulting in the upstream expansion of the Yangtze River Basin. These findings provide an increased understanding of ongoing drainage reorganization events driven by climatic changes. Further, this work advances our understanding of the connections between ongoing hydrologic changes and their effect on related geological disasters (e.g., outburst floods) within the TP.
Key Points
Rapid lake growths drive large‐scale drainage reorganizations on the Tibetan Plateau
24 lake drainage systems have undergone reorganization from 2000 to 2018 and this number is expected to increase to 44 by the year 2030
The northern portion of the upstream Yangtze basin has expanded by around 8,400 km2 due to an endorheic‐exorheic transition
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
PDF
