Perception of climate change Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
09/2012, Volume:
109, Issue:
37
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
“Climate dice,” describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more “loaded” in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean ...temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.
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Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. This is because CO₂, like ozone, N₂O, CH₄, and ...chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO₂ and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.
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3.
Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model Lenssen, Nathan J. L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Hansen, James E. ...
Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres,
27 June 2019, Volume:
124, Issue:
12
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature ...anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 °C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 °C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).
Key Points
A total uncertainty analysis for GISTEMP is presented for the first time
Uncertainty in global mean surface temperature is roughly 0.05 degrees Celsius in recent decades increasing to 0.15 degrees Celsius in the nineteenth century
Annual mean uncertainties are small relative to the long‐term trend
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The relative contributions of atmospheric long‐wave absorbers to the present‐day global greenhouse effect are among the most misquoted statistics in public discussions of climate change. Much of the ...interest in these values is however due to an implicit assumption that these contributions are directly relevant for the question of climate sensitivity. Motivated by the need for a clear reference for this issue, we review the existing literature and use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE radiation module to provide an overview of the role of each absorber at the present‐day and under doubled CO2. With a straightforward scheme for allocating overlaps, we find that water vapor is the dominant contributor (∼50% of the effect), followed by clouds (∼25%) and then CO2 with ∼20%. All other absorbers play only minor roles. In a doubled CO2 scenario, this allocation is essentially unchanged, even though the magnitude of the total greenhouse effect is significantly larger than the initial radiative forcing, underscoring the importance of feedbacks from water vapor and clouds to climate sensitivity.
Global Temperature Change Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
09/2006, Volume:
103, Issue:
39
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient ...greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West-East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within 1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute "dangerous" climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.
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GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology Kelley, Maxwell; Schmidt, Gavin A; Nazarenko, Larissa ...
Journal of advances in modeling earth systems,
August 2020, Volume:
12, Issue:
8
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to ...parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2xCO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7‐‐3.1°C (depending on version), and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.
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Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or ...close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 C relative to the 1880 - 1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6 - 9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89 - 535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.
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We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the ...Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use six variations related to the treatment of the atmospheric composition, the calculation of aerosol indirect effects, and ocean model component. Specifically, we test the difference between atmospheric models that have noninteractive composition, where radiatively important aerosols and ozone are prescribed from precomputed decadal averages, and interactive versions where atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are calculated given decadally varying emissions. The impact of the first aerosol indirect effect on clouds is either specified using a simple tuning, or parameterized using a cloud microphysics scheme. We also use two dynamic ocean components: the Russell and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) which differ significantly in their basic formulations and grid. Results are presented for the climatological means over the satellite era (1980–2004) taken from transient simulations starting from the preindustrial (1850) driven by estimates of appropriate forcings over the 20th Century. Differences in base climate and variability related to the choice of ocean model are large, indicating an important structural uncertainty. The impact of interactive atmospheric composition on the climatology is relatively small except in regions such as the lower stratosphere, where ozone plays an important role, and the tropics, where aerosol changes affect the hydrological cycle and cloud cover. While key improvements over previous versions of the model are evident, these are not uniform across all metrics.
Key Points
Description of the GISS ModelE2 contribution to CMIP5
Impact on evaluation of structural changes in composition and ocean treatment
Ocean model choice is an important structural uncertainty
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Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 watts per square meter more energy ...from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6°C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.
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Climate change will affect both the mean state and seasonality of marine physical and biogeochemical properties, with important implications for the oceanic sink of atmospheric CO2. Here, we ...investigate the seasonal cycle of the air-sea exchange of CO2 and pCO2,sw (surface seawater pCO2) and their long term changes using the CMIP6 submission of the NASA-GISS modelE (GISS-E2.1-G). In comparison to the CMIP5 submission (GISS-E2-R), we find that on the global scale, the seasonal cycles of the CO2 flux and NPP have improved, while the seasonal cycles of DIC, alkalinity, and macronutrients have deteriorated. Moreover, for all ocean biogeochemietry fields, changes in skill between E2.1-G and E2-R display large regional variability. For E2.1-G, we find similar modeled and observed CO2 flux seasonal cycles in the subtropical gyres, where seasonal anomalies of pCO2,sw and the flux are temperature-driven, and the Southern Ocean, where anomalies are DIC-driven. Biases in these seasonal cycles are largest in the subpolar and equatorial regions, driven by a combination of biases in temperature, DIC, alkalinity, and wind speed. When comparing the historical simulation to a simulation with an idealized increase in atmospheric pCO2, we find that the seasonal amplitudes of the CO2 flux and pCO2,sw generally increase. These changes are produced by increases in the sensitivity of pCO2,sw to its respective drivers. These findings are consistent with the notion that the sensitivity of pCO2,sw is expected to increase due to the increase of atmospheric pCO2, with changes in the seasonality of temperature, DIC, and alkalinity having secondary influences.
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