An accurate prediction of the clinical outcomes of European patients requiring hospitalisation for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is lacking. The aim of the study is to identify predictors of ...in-hospital mortality and discharge in a cohort of Lombardy patients with COVID-19. All consecutive hospitalised patients from February 21st to March 30th, 2020, with confirmed COVID-19 from the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Lombardy, Italy, were included. In-hospital mortality and discharge were evaluated by competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray model was fitted in order to estimate the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for in-hospital mortality and discharge. 426 adult patients median age 68 (IQR 56 to 77 years) were admitted with confirmed COVID-19 over a 5-week period; 292 (69%) were male. By 21 April 2020, 141 (33%) of these patients had died, 239 (56%) patients had been discharged and 46 (11%) were still hospitalised. Among these 46 patients, updated as of 30 May, 2020, 5 (10.9%) had died, 8 (17.4%) were still in ICU, 12 (26.1%) were transferred to lower intensity care units and 21 (45.7%) were discharged. Regression on the CIFs for in-hospital mortality showed that older age, male sex, number of comorbidities and hospital admission after March 4th were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Older age, male sex and number of comorbidities definitively predicted in-hospital mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
BACKGROUND:We explored predictors of CD4/CD8 ratio improvement and optimal immunological recovery (OIR) after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in naive people living with HIV (PLWH).
...METHODS:Retrospective multicenter study including naive PLWH starting ART with 2 nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors + 1 integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI) or non-NRTI or protease inhibitor (PI). PLWH were followed from the time of ART initiation (baseline) to the discontinuation of first-line regimen, virological failure, death, or loss to follow-up. Estimated incidence and predictors of time to CD4/CD8 ratio normalization (defined as ≥1) and OIR (defined as CD4/CD8 ratio ≥ 1 plus CD4 ≥ 500 cells/µL plus CD4% ≥ 30%) were explored by Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox regression analysis.
RESULTS:Overall, 1428 PLWH (77.8% males, median age 39 years, 55.1% with positive cytomegalovirus (CMV) antibodies, median HIV-RNA 4.80 log copies/mL, median CD4 323 cells/µL, median CD4/CD8 ratio 0.32) were included, of which 21.5% (n = 307), 44.5% (n = 636), and 34% (n = 485) treated with InSTI-, PI-, and NNRTI-based regimens, respectively. The estimated proportion of CD4/CD8 normalization and OIR at 36 months was 38.6% and 32.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that InSTI-based regimens had a higher probability of CD4/CD8 ratio normalization and OIR both in the total population (P < 0.001 versus PI) and in advanced naive PLWH (P ≤ 0.001 versus PI and NNRTI). Moreover, subjects with positive CMV serology showed a lower probability of CD4/CD8 ratio normalization and OIR (P < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS:InSTI-based regimens showed a better immune recovery, suggesting that the type of first-line ART can influence immune reconstitution. PLWH with positive CMV serology showed an increased risk of suboptimal immune recovery.
•Pre-emptive 3-day course remdesivir might reduce hospitalization due to COVID-19•Data on the effectiveness of this strategy in patients with COVID-19 who received solid organ transplant are ...lacking•Patients receiving solid organ transplant who received and did not receive pre-emptive remdesivir were evaluated•28-day hospitalization due to COVID-19 was the primary outcome•Remdesivir was effective in reducing hospitalization among patients with COVID-19 who received solid organ transplant
The effectiveness of a 3-day course of remdesivir to prevent severe disease in patients with COVID-19 who received solid organ transplant (SOT) is unknown. We wanted to study the efficacy of this therapeutic option in patients with COVID-19 who received SOT in preventing both hospitalizations for outpatients and clinical worsening due to COVID-19 for those already hospitalized for other reasons.
This is a single-center, retrospective, observational study conducted in the Fondazione IRCSS Policlinico San Matteo of Pavia, Northern Italy. We extracted all the data of patients with COVID-19 receiving SOT who received and did not receive pre-emptive remdesivir between December 23, 2021, and February 26, 2022. We used a Cox proportional hazard model to assess whether receiving pre-emptive remdesivir was associated with lower rates of hospitalization.
A total of 24 patients who received SOT were identified. Among these, seven patients (29, 1%) received pre-emptive remdesivir, whereas 17 (70, 9%) patients did not. Receiving remdesivir significantly reduced the hospitalization rate in outpatients who received SOT and the clinical worsening of the condition of already hospitalized patients who received SOT (hazard ratio 0.05; confidence interval 0.00–0.65, P-value = 0.01).
In our cohort of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 who received SOT, pre-emptive remdesivir was effective in reducing the hospitalization rate due to COVID-19 and in preventing the clinical worsening of the condition of patients who received SOT who were hospitalized for reasons other than COVID-19.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Information concerning the longevity of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection may have considerable implications for durability of immunity induced by vaccines. Here, we monitored the ...SARS-CoV-2 specific immune response in COVID-19 patients followed up to 15 months after symptoms onset. Following a peak at day 15–28 postinfection, the IgG antibody response and plasma neutralizing titers gradually decreased over time but stabilized after 6 months. Compared to G614, plasma neutralizing titers were more than 8-fold lower against variants Beta, Gamma, and Delta. SARS-CoV-2-specific memory B and T cells persisted in the majority of patients up to 15 months although a significant decrease in specific T cells, but not B cells, was observed between 6 and 15 months. Antiviral specific immunity, especially memory B cells in COVID-19 convalescent patients, is long-lasting, but some variants of concern may at least partially escape the neutralizing activity of plasma antibodies.
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•Plasma neutralizing antibodies persist in the majority of patients up to 15 months•Neutralizing activity is lower against variants of concern Delta, Beta, and Gamma•Specific memory B and T cells were present in 95% of patients up to 15 months•Specific T cells, but not B cells, were decreased between 6 and 15 months
Immunology; Immune response; Virology
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Introduction
The hyperinflammation phase of severe SARS-CoV-2 is characterised by complete blood count alterations. In this context, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the ...platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) can be used as prognostic factors. We studied NLR and PLR trends at different timepoints and computed optimal cutoffs to predict four outcomes: use of continuous positive airways pressure (CPAP), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, invasive ventilation and death.
Methods
We retrospectively included all adult patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia admitted from 23 January 2020 to 18 May 2021. Analyses included non-parametric tests to study the ability of NLR and PLR to distinguish the patients’ outcomes at each timepoint. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were built for NLR and PLR at each timepoint (minus discharge) to identify cutoffs to distinguish severe and non-severe disease. Their statistical significance was assessed with the chi-square test. Collection of data under the SMACORE database was approved with protocol number 20200046877.
Results
We included 2169 patients. NLR and PLR were higher in severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Both ratios were able to distinguish the outcomes at each timepoint. For NLR, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) ranged between 0.59 and 0.81, and for PLR between 0.53 and 0.67. From each ROC curve we computed an optimal cutoff value.
Conclusion
NLR and PLR cutoffs are able to distinguish severity grades and mortality at different timepoints during the course of disease, and, as such, they allow a tailored approach. Future prospects include validating our cutoffs in a prospective cohort and comparing their performance against other COVID-19 scores.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
COVID-19 tide had shattered on European countries with three distinct and tough waves, from March and April, 2020; October and November, 2020 and March and April, 2021 respectively. We observed a 50% ...reduction in the hazard of death during both wave II and III compared with wave I (HR 0.54, 95%CI 0.39–0.74 and HR 0.57, 95%CI 0.41–0.80, respectively). Sex and age were independent predictors of death. We compare in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted at our Referral Hospital of Northern Italy during the different waves, discuss the reasons of the observed differences and suggest approaches to the challenges ahead.
Covid-19; In-hospital mortality.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Severe liver fibrosis (LF) is associated with poor long-term liver-related outcomes in people living with HIV (PLWH). The study aimed to explore the prevalence and predictors of LF and the ...concordance between different non-invasive methods for the estimation of LF in HIV-infected individuals without hepatitis virus infection. We enrolled PLWH with HIV-1-RNA <50 copies/mL for >12 months, excluding individuals with viral hepatitis. LF was assessed by transient elastography (TE) (significant >6.65 kPa), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) (significant >2.67), and AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) (significant >1.5). We included 234 individuals (67% males, median age 49 years, median time from HIV diagnosis 11 years, 38% treated with integrase strand transfer inhibitors). In terms of the TE, 13% had ≥F2 stage; FIB-4 score was >1.5 in 7%; and APRI > 0.5 in 4%. Higher body mass index, diabetes mellitus, detectable baseline HIV-1 RNA and longer atazanavir exposure were associated with higher liver stiffness as per TE. Predictors of higher APRI score were CDC C stage and longer exposure to tenofovir alafenamide, while HBcAb positivity and longer exposure to tenofovir alafenamide were associated to higher FIB-4 scores. Qualitative agreement was poor between FIB-4/TE and between APRI/TE by non-parametric Spearman correlation and kappa statistic. In our study, in the group of PLWH without viral hepatitis, different non-invasive methods were discordant in predicting liver fibrosis.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response characterization represents a crucial issue for defining the role of immune protection against COVID-19. The aim of the study was to assess the SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response ...in a cohort of COVID-19 convalescent patients and in a group of unexposed subjects.
SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response was quantified from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 87 COVID-19 convalescent subjects (range 7–239 days after symptom onset) and 33 unexposed donors by ex vivo ELISpot assay. Follow-up of SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response was performed in ten subjects up to 12 months after symptom onset. The role of SARS-CoV-2 specific CD4 and CD8 T cells was characterized in a group of COVID-19 convalescent subjects. Moreover, neutralizing antibodies were determined in serum samples.
In 14/33 (42.4%) unexposed donors and 85/87 (97.7%) COVID-19 convalescent subjects a positive result for at least one SARS-CoV-2 antigen was observed. A positive response was observed up to 12 months after COVID-19 infection (median 246 days after symptom onset; range 118–362 days). Of note, SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response seems to be mainly mediated by CD4 T cells. A weak positive correlation was observed between Spike-specific T-cell response and neutralizing antibody titre (p 0.0028; r2 = 0.2891) and positive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response was observed in 8/9 (88.9%) COVID-19 convalescent subjects with undetectable SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies.
Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response in uninfected patients may be due to previous infections with other common coronaviruses. Our data suggest that long-term SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response might accompany a waning humoral response.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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