Adverse pregnancy outcomes jointly account for a high proportion of mortality and morbidity among pregnant women and their infants. Furthermore, the burden attributed to adverse pregnancy outcomes ...remains high and inadequately characterised due to the intricate interplay of its etiology and shared set of important risk factors. This study sought to quantify and map the underlying risk of multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes in Kenya at sub-county level using a shared component space-time modelling framework.
Reported sub-county level adverse pregnancy outcomes count from January 2016 - December 2019 were obtained from the Kenyan District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model was used to estimate the joint burden of adverse pregnancy outcomes in space (sub-county) and time (year). To improve the precision of our estimates over time and space, information across the outcomes were combined via the shared and the outcome-specific components using a shared component model with spatio-temporal interactions.
Overall, the total number of adverse outcomes in pregnancy increased by 14.2% (95% UI: 14.0-14.5) from 88,816 cases in 2016 to 101,455 cases in 2019. Between 2016 and 2019, the estimated low birth weight rate and the pre-term birth rate were 4.5 (95% UI: 4.4-4.7) and 2.3 (95% UI: 2.2-2.5) per 100 live births. The stillbirth and neonatal death rates were estimated to be 18.7 (95% UI: 18.0-19.4) and 6.9 (95% UI: 6.4-7.4) per 1000 live births. The magnitude of the spatio-temporal variation attributed to shared risk was high for pre-term births, low birth weight, neonatal deaths, stillbirths and neonatal deaths, respectively. The shared risk patterns were dominant in sub-counties located along the Indian ocean coastline, central and western Kenya.
This study demonstrates the usefulness of a Bayesian joint spatio-temporal shared component model in exploiting specific and shared risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes sub-nationally. By identifying sub-counties with elevated risks and data gaps, our estimates not only assert the need for bolstering maternal health programs in the identified high-risk sub-counties but also provides a baseline against which to assess the progress towards the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals.
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Multiple sclerosis is the most common inflammatory neurological disease in young adults. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic method of ...quantifying various effects of a given condition by demographic variables and geography. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global burden of multiple sclerosis and its relationship with country development level.
We assessed the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2016. Epidemiological outcomes for multiple sclerosis were modelled with DisMod-MR version 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression framework widely used in GBD epidemiological modelling. Assessment of multiple sclerosis as the cause of death was based on 13 110 site-years of vital registration data analysed in the GBD's cause of death ensemble modelling module, which is designed to choose the optimum combination of mathematical models and predictive covariates based on out-of-sample predictive validity testing. Data on prevalence and deaths are summarised in the indicator, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), which was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with a disability. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a composite indicator of income per person, years of education, and fertility, to assess relations with development level.
In 2016, there were 2 221 188 prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis (95% uncertainty interval UI 2 033 866–2 436 858) globally, which corresponded to a 10·4% (9·1 to 11·8) increase in the age-standardised prevalence since 1990. The highest age-standardised multiple sclerosis prevalence estimates per 100 000 population were in high-income North America (164·6, 95% UI, 153·2 to 177·1), western Europe (127·0, 115·4 to 139·6), and Australasia (91·1, 81·5 to 101·7), and the lowest were in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (3·3, 2·9–3·8), central sub-Saharan African (2·8, 2·4 to 3·1), and Oceania (2·0, 1·71 to 2·29). There were 18 932 deaths due to multiple sclerosis (95% UI 16 577 to 21 033) and 1 151 478 DALYs (968 605 to 1 345 776) due to multiple sclerosis in 2016. Globally, age-standardised death rates decreased significantly (change −11·5%, 95% UI −35·4 to −4·7), whereas the change in age-standardised DALYs was not significant (−4·2%, −16·4 to 0·8). YLLs due to premature death were greatest in the sixth decade of life (22·05, 95% UI 19·08 to 25·34). Changes in age-standardised DALYs assessed with the Socio-demographic Index between 1990 and 2016 were variable.
Multiple sclerosis is not common but is a potentially severe cause of neurological disability throughout adult life. Prevalence has increased substantially in many regions since 1990. These findings will be useful for resource allocation and planning in health services. Many regions worldwide have few or no epidemiological data on multiple sclerosis, and more studies are needed to make more accurate estimates.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Background Infant mortality rate (IMR) is regarded as an important indicator of population health. IMR rates vary substantially with the highest found in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to the ...lowest in Europe. Identifying spatial disparities in IMR and quantifying attributable risk factors is essential for policymakers when tailoring time-appropriate interventions at a global, regional, and country level. Methods Data for 192 countries were extracted from the World Bank Development Indicator database for the period 1990-2011. Spatial clustering was used to identify significant higher-risk IMR countries. A robust ecological generalized linear negative binomial regression model was used to quantify risk factors and associated decomposition values (Shapley). Results Significant reductions were observed in IMR for all of the World Health Organization regions for the period 1990-2011 except for SSA, which indicated a reversal of this trend in the 1990s due to HIV. Significant high-risk clustering of IMR is also indicated in SSA countries and parts of Asia. Maternal mortality (survival), lack of water and sanitation and female education were confirmed as prominent and high attributable risk factors for IMR. Distinct temporal changes in the attributability of these factors were observed, as well as significant heterogeneity with regards to the most attributable factor by region and country. Conclusions Our study suggests that maternal mortality is the most prominent attributable risk factor for infant mortality, followed by lack of access to sanitation, lack of access to water, and lower female education. Variation exists across regions and countries with regards to the most attributable factor. Our study also suggests significant underestimation of IMR in regions known for poorer data quality. The results will aid policymakers in re-tailoring time-appropriate interventions to more effectively reduce IMR in line with Millennium Development Goal 4. Keywords: Infant mortality, Global, Spatial risk, Trends, Determinants, Population attributable fractions
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Obesity is a major risk factor for emerging non-communicable diseases (NCDS) in middle income countries including South Africa (SA). Understanding the multiple and complex determinants of obesity and ...their true population attributable impact is critical for informing and developing effective prevention efforts using scientific based evidence. This study identified contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity in South Africa.
Analysis of three national cross sectional (repeated panel) surveys, using a multilevel logistic regression and population attributable fraction estimation allowed for identification of contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity (BMI>30 kg/m2) among adults (15 years+).
Obesity prevalence increased significantly from 23.5% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2012, with a significantly (p-value<0.001) higher prevalence among females (37.9% in 2012) compared to males (13.3% in 2012). Living in formal urban areas, white ethnicity, being married, not exercising and/or in higher socio-economic category were significantly associated with male obesity. Females living in formal or informal urban areas, higher crime areas, African/White ethnicity, married, not exercising, in a higher socio-economic category and/or living in households with proportionate higher spending on food (and unhealthy food options) were significantly more likely to be obese. The identified determinants appeared to account for 75% and 43% of male and female obesity respectively. White males had the highest relative gain in obesity from 2008 to 2012.
The rising prevalence of obesity in South Africa is significant and over the past 5 years the rising prevalence of Type-2 diabetes has mirrored this pattern, especially among females. Targeting young adolescent girls should be a priority. Addressing determinants of obesity will involve a multifaceted strategy and requires at individual and population levels. With rising costs in the private and public sector to combat obesity related NCDS, this analysis can inform culturally sensitive mass communications and wellness campaigns. Knowledge of social determinants is critical to develop "best buys".
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Despite high mortality and morbidity, drug-resistant bacterial infections remain the forgotten pandemic. We argue for strengthening of diagnostics, WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) and infection ...prevention and control to reduce drug-resistant infections, as an integral part of sustainable high-quality health services, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
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South Africa is currently undergoing a nutrition transition, and overweight and obesity is on the increase in South African children. Urbanization and other health determinants have led to reduced ...physical activity and unhealthy eating that have increased the risk of adverse chronic health conditions. This study aims to provide evidence of the effectiveness of a school-based intervention study that targets diet and physical activity for the prevention of child and adolescent overweight and/or obesity.
We will employ a mixed method study design which is divided into two phases. Phase 1, namely the qualitative elicitation research phase will inform the development of the quantitative intervention phase (phase 2), consisting of a cluster-randomized trial, based on input from key stakeholders. The study will be undertaken in 16 government-funded primary schools in the iLembe district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study will target learners in Grades 4 and 7, their parents, Life Orientation educators, school principals and members of school governing bodies. Assessment for the primary objective (BMI Z scores), and the secondary objectives (change in knowledge, attitudes and behaviours regarding diet and physical activity) in both study arms will be conducted at baseline in March 2020 and at the end of the study in October 2020.
The study will be a novel combined mixed methods/RCT design that focuses on diet, physical activity school and family-based interventions in the context of rapidly increasing overweight and obesity prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal. To encourage behaviour change and management of malnutrition, education including diet and physical activity, is an important strategy that must be considered. Nutrition education extends beyond the dissemination of food information; it includes addressing the needs of participants, empowers and encourages decision-making and choice of foods, change in nutrition attitudes, beliefs and influences based on resources available and within cultural boundaries.
Pan African Clinical Trial Registry PACTR201711002699153. Protocol registered on 16 November 2017.
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The incidence and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase sharply by 2040 against a backdrop of limited diagnostic and therapeutic options. Two ...large South African-based case control studies have developed a serum-based miRNome for Hepatitis B-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC), as well as identifying their gene targets and pathways. Using a combination of RNA sequencing, differential analysis and filters including a unique molecular index count (UMI) ≥ 10 and log fold change (LFC) range > 2: <-0.5 (
< 0.05), 91 dysregulated miRNAs were characterized including 30 that were upregulated and 61 were downregulated. KEGG analysis, a literature review and other bioinformatic tools identified the targeted genes and HBV-HCC pathways of the top 10 most dysregulated miRNAs. The results, which are based on differentiating miRNA expression of cases versus controls, also develop a serum-based miRNA diagnostic panel that indicates 95.9% sensitivity, 91.0% specificity and a Youden Index of 0.869. In conclusion, the results develop a comprehensive African HBV-HCC miRNome that potentially can contribute to RNA-based diagnostic and therapeutic options.
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Infant mortality is an important indicator of population health in a country. It is associated with several health determinants, such as maternal health, access to high-quality health care, ...socioeconomic conditions, and public health policy and practices.
A spatial-temporal analysis was performed to assess changes in infant mortality patterns between 1992-2007 and to identify factors associated with infant mortality risk in the Agincourt sub-district, rural northeast South Africa. Period, sex, refugee status, maternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to nearest primary health care facility, and socio-economic status were examined as possible risk factors. All-cause and cause-specific mortality maps were developed to identify high risk areas within the study site. The analysis was carried out by fitting Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical negative binomial autoregressive models using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation-based Bayesian kriging was used to produce maps of all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk.
Infant mortality increased significantly over the study period, largely due to the impact of the HIV epidemic. There was a high burden of neonatal mortality (especially perinatal) with several hot spots observed in close proximity to health facilities. Significant risk factors for all-cause infant mortality were mother's death in first year (most commonly due to HIV), death of previous sibling and increasing number of household deaths. Being born to a Mozambican mother posed a significant risk for infectious and parasitic deaths, particularly acute diarrhoea and malnutrition.
This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models in assessing risk factors and producing smooth maps of infant mortality risk in a health and socio-demographic surveillance system. Results showed marked geographical differences in mortality risk across a relatively small area. Prevention of vertical transmission of HIV and survival of mothers during the infants' first year in high prevalence villages needs to be urgently addressed, including expanded antenatal testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and improved access to antiretroviral therapy. There is also need to assess and improve the capacity of district hospitals for emergency obstetric and newborn care. Persisting risk factors, including inadequate provision of clean water and sanitation, are yet to be fully addressed.
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Background
: There is a lack of reliable data in developing countries to inform policy and optimise resource allocation. Health and socio-demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) have the potential to ...address this gap. Mortality levels and trends have previously been documented in rural South Africa. However, complex space-time clustering of mortality, determinants, and their impact has not been fully examined.
Objectives
: To integrate advanced methods enhance the understanding of the dynamics of mortality in space-time, to identify mortality risk factors and population attributable impact, to relate disparities in risk factor distributions to spatial mortality risk, and thus, to improve policy planning and resource allocation.
Methods
: Agincourt HDSS supplied data for the period 1992-2008. Advanced spatial techniques were used to identify significant age-specific mortality 'hotspots' in space-time. Multivariable Bayesian models were used to assess the effects of the most significant covariates on mortality. Disparities in risk factor profiles in identified hotspots were assessed.
Results
: Increasing HIV-related mortality and a subsequent decrease possibly attributable to antiretroviral therapy introduction are evident in this rural population. Distinct space-time clustering and variation (even in a small geographic area) of mortality were observed. Several known and novel risk factors were identified, and population impact was quantified. Significant differences in the risk factor profiles of the identified 'hotspots' included ethnicity; maternal, partner, and household deaths; household head demographics; migrancy; education; and poverty.
Conclusions
: A complex interaction of highly attributable multilevel factors continues to demonstrate differential space-time influences on mortality risk (especially for HIV). High-risk households and villages displayed differential risk factor profiles. This integrated approach could prove valuable to decision makers. Tailored interventions for specific child and adult high-risk mortality areas are needed, such as preventing vertical transmission, ensuring maternal survival, and improving water and sanitation infrastructure. This framework can be applied in other settings within the region.
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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a constellation of conditions that increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases. It is an emerging concern in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, particularly because of ...an increasingly aging population and lifestyle changes. There is an increased risk of MetS and its components among people living with Human immune deficiency syndrome (HIV) individuals; however, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the SSA population and its differential contribution by HIV status is not yet established. This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to estimate the pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome in people living with HIV and uninfected populations, its variation by sub-components.
We performed a comprehensive search on major databases-MEDLINE (PubMed), EBSCOhost, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Web of sciences for original epidemiological research articles that compared proportions of the MetS and its subcomponents between people living with HIV and uninfected patients and published between January 1990-December 2017. The inclusion criteria were adults aged ≥ 18 years, with confirmed HIV status. We assessed the risk of bias using a prevalence studies tool, and random effect meta-analyses were used to compute the pooled overall prevalence.
A total of four cross-sectional studies comprising 496 HIV uninfected and 731 infected participants were included in the meta-analysis. The overall prevalence of MetS among people living with HIV was 21.5% (95% CI 15.09-26.86) versus uninfected 12.0% (95% CI 5.00-21.00%), with substantial heterogeneity. The reported relative risk estimate for MetS among the two groups was twofold (RR 1.83, 95% CI 0.98-3.41), with an estimated predictive interval of 0.15 to 22.43 and P = 0.055 higher for the infected population. Hypertension was the most prevalent MetS sub-components, with diverse proportions of people living with HIV (5.2-50.0%) and uninfected (10.0-59.0%) populations.
The high range of MetS prevalence in the HIV-infected population compared to the uninfected population highlights the possible presence of HIV related drivers of MetS. Also, the reported high rate of MetS, irrespective of HIV status, indicates a major metabolic disorder epidemic that requires urgent prevention and management programs in SSA. Similarly, in the era of universal test and treat strategy among people living with HIV cohorts, routine check-up of MetS sub-components is required in HIV management as biomarkers.
PROSPERO CRD42016045727.
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