The measurement of temporal changes in active layer thickness (ALT) is crucial to monitoring permafrost degradation in the Arctic. We develop a retrieval algorithm to estimate long‐term average ALT ...using thaw‐season surface subsidence derived from spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements. Our algorithm uses a model of vertical distribution of water content within the active layer accounting for soil texture, organic matter, and moisture. We determine the 1992–2000 average ALT for an 80 × 100 km study area of continuous permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska near Prudhoe Bay. We obtain an ALT of 30–50 cm over moist tundra areas, and a larger ALT of 50–80 cm over wet tundra areas. Our estimated ALT values match in situ measurements at Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites within uncertainties. Our results demonstrate that InSAR can provide ALT estimates over large areas at high spatial resolution.
Key Points
Thawing of active layer causes surface subsidence
Surface subsidence from InSAR can be used to estimate active layer thickness
Our active layer thickness estimates closely match ground measurements
Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of ...sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (RHgC) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 ± 30 ng Hg g soil−1 and a median RHgC of 1.6 ± 0.9 μg Hg g C−1, consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 ± 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 ± 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.
Plain Language Summary
Researchers estimate the amount of natural mercury stored in perennially frozen soils (permafrost) in the Northern Hemisphere. Permafrost regions contain twice as much mercury as the rest of all soils, the atmosphere, and ocean combined.
Key Points
Permafrost stores a significant amount of mercury
Permafrost regions store twice as much mercury as all other soils, the ocean, and atmosphere combined
Thawing permafrost in a warming climate may release mercury to the environment
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg ...from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.
The Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is a region of discontinuous permafrost in the subarctic of southwestern Alaska. Many wildfires have occurred in the YK Delta between 1971-2015, impacting vegetation ...cover, surface soil moisture, and the active layer. Herein, we demonstrate that the remotely sensed active layer thickness (ReSALT) algorithm can resolve the post-fire active layer dynamics of tundra permafrost. We generated a stack of Advanced Land Observing Satellite Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar interferograms over a study region in the YK Delta spanning 2007-2010. We applied ReSALT to this stack of interferograms to measure seasonal subsidence associated with the freezing and thawing of the active layer and subsidence trends associated with wildfire. We isolated two wildfire-induced subsidence signatures, associated with the active layer and the permafrost layer. We demonstrate that InSAR is sensitive to increases in active layer thickness following wildfire, which recovers to pre-fire values after approximately 25 years. Simultaneously, we show that fire gradually thins the permafrost layer by 4 m, which recovers to pre-fire thickness after 70 years.
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the ...amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost ...region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km² for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km² for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
ABSTRACT
The thaw and release of carbon currently frozen in permafrost will increase atmospheric CO2 concentrations and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) ...on climate. We use surface weather from three global climate models based on the moderate warming, A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario and the SiBCASA land surface model to estimate the strength and timing of the PCF and associated uncertainty. By 2200, we predict a 29–59% decrease in permafrost area and a 53–97 cm increase in active layer thickness. By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 ± 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid‐2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. ...Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
Ground surface over permafrost area undergoes seasonal subsidence and uplift caused by the annual thawing and freezing of the active layer. Applying the Global Positioning System (GPS) ...interferometric reflectometry technique to the signal‐to‐noise ratio data collected by a continuously operating GPS station in a permafrost area in Barrow, we retrieve the daily surface elevation changes on snow‐free days over a decade (2007–2016). Among these years, 2016 had the longest snow‐free season, offering the longest and most complete records of elevation changes. Use this year as an example, we show that the ground subsided in thaw season and then uplifted from September to early November (freezing season) with an amplitude of 5.1 ± 0.2 cm. We also develop a composite model that includes both thaw and freeze indices to characterize the cyclic movements. Our composite model effectively explains the observed cyclic elevation changes and could be used in other permafrost studies.
Plain Language Summary
The ground surface over permafrost area subsides and uplifts annually associated with the thawing and freezing processes. We obtain continuous records of elevation changes during snow‐free days using reflected Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. Our new measurements reveal the cyclic pattern of subsidence and uplift, which is successfully quantified by a new and simple model that accounts for both thawing and freezing. These observations are important for a quantitative understanding of the progressive movements of frozen ground and for assessing the impact of elevation changes on natural environments and infrastructure over permafrost areas.
Key Points
GPS‐IR successfully retrieves ground uplifts during snow‐free days in freezing season in a continuous permafrost area
GPS‐IR can provide daily records that show a cyclic pattern of thaw subsidence and freezing uplift
A new composite model incorporating thaw and freeze indices can quantitatively explain the retrieved cyclic elevation changes
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land‐atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C ...(SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process‐based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century‐long (1901–2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation‐based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 1015 g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr−1 with a median value of 51 Pg C yr−1 during 2001–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude whereas the largest cross‐model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901–2010 ranges from −70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble‐estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks—even though the responses varied significantly among models. Model representations of temperature and moisture sensitivity, nutrient limitation, and land use partially explain the divergent estimates of global SOC stocks and soil C fluxes in this study. In addition, a major source of systematic error in model estimations relates to nonmodeled SOC storage in wetlands and peatlands, as well as to old C storage in deep soil layers.
Key Points
Simulated historical (1901–2010) SOC dynamics vary largely among models
Ten TBMs agree that climate and land use change have reduced SOC stocks
Rising CO2 and N deposition are prone to increase SOC with varying magnitudes
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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