With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We ...investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on agricultural markets and biodiversity. We find that both scenarios lead to lower crop prices across the world, even in regions where production decreases. Cropland expansion mostly affects biodiversity hotspots in Central and South America, while cropland intensification threatens biodiversity especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China. Our results suggest that production gains will occur at the costs of biodiversity predominantly in developing tropical regions, while Europe and North America benefit from lower world market prices without putting their own biodiversity at risk. By identifying hotspots of potential future conflicts, we demonstrate where conservation prioritization is needed to balance agricultural production with conservation goals.
The pressure on land resources continuously increases not only with the rising demand for agricultural commodities, but also with the growing need for action on global challenges, such as ...biodiversity loss or climate change, where land plays a crucial role. Land saving as a strategy, where agricultural productivity is increased to allow a reduction of required cropland while sustaining production volumes and meeting demand, could address this trade-off. With our interdisciplinary model-based study, we globally assess regional potentials of land saving and analyze resulting effects on agricultural production, prices and trade. Thereby, different land saving strategies are investigated that (1) minimize required cropland (2) minimize spatial marginalization induced by land saving and (3) maximize the attainable profit. We find that current cropland requirements could be reduced between 37% and 48%, depending on the applied land saving strategy. The generally more efficient use of land would cause crop prices to fall in all regions, but also trigger an increase in global agricultural production of 2.8%. While largest land saving potentials occur in regions with high yield gaps, the impacts on prices and production are strongest in highly populated regions with already high pressure on land. Global crop prices and trade affect regional impacts of land saving on agricultural markets and can displace effects to spatially distant regions. Our results point out the importance of investigating the potentials and effects of land saving in the context of global markets within an integrative, global framework. The resulting land saving potentials can moreover reframe debates on global potentials for afforestation and carbon sequestration, as well as on how to reconcile agricultural production and biodiversity conservation and thus contribute to approaching central goals of the 21st century, addressed for example in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement or the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
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Which facial features allow human observers to successfully recognize expressions of emotion? While the eyes and mouth have been frequently shown to be of high importance, research on facial action ...units has made more precise predictions about the areas involved in displaying each emotion. The present research investigated on a fine-grained level, which physical features are most relied on when decoding facial expressions. In the experiment, individual faces expressing the basic emotions according to Ekman were hidden behind a mask of 48 tiles, which was sequentially uncovered. Participants were instructed to stop the sequence as soon as they recognized the facial expression and assign it the correct label. For each part of the face, its contribution to successful recognition was computed, allowing to visualize the importance of different face areas for each expression. Overall, observers were mostly relying on the eye and mouth regions when successfully recognizing an emotion. Furthermore, the difference in the importance of eyes and mouth allowed to group the expressions in a continuous space, ranging from sadness and fear (reliance on the eyes) to disgust and happiness (mouth). The face parts with highest diagnostic value for expression identification were typically located in areas corresponding to action units from the facial action coding system. A similarity analysis of the usefulness of different face parts for expression recognition demonstrated that faces cluster according to the emotion they express, rather than by low-level physical features. Also, expressions relying more on the eyes or mouth region were in close proximity in the constructed similarity space. These analyses help to better understand how human observers process expressions of emotion, by delineating the mapping from facial features to psychological representation.
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Correlates of infectiousness
The role that individuals with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have in transmission of the virus is not well ...understood. Jones
et al.
investigated viral load in patients, comparing those showing few, if any, symptoms with hospitalized cases. Approximately 400,000 individuals, mostly from Berlin, were tested from February 2020 to March 2021 and about 6% tested positive. Of the 25,381 positive subjects, about 8% showed very high viral loads. People became infectious within 2 days of infection, and in hospitalized individuals, about 4 days elapsed from the start of virus shedding to the time of peak viral load, which occurred 1 to 3 days before the onset of symptoms. Overall, viral load was highly variable, but was about 10-fold higher in persons infected with the B.1.1.7 variant. Children had slightly lower viral loads than adults, although this difference may not be clinically significant.
Science
, abi5273, this issue p.
eabi5273
Analysis of thousands of people who tested positive in Germany reveals that many were asymptomatic and a minority exhibited high viral loads.
INTRODUCTION
Although post facto studies have revealed the importance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission from presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic (PAMS) cases, the virological basis of their infectiousness remains largely unquantified. The reasons for the rapid spread of variant lineages of concern, such as B.1.1.7, have yet to be fully determined.
RATIONALE
Viral load (viral RNA concentration) in patient samples and the rate of isolation success of virus from clinical specimens in cell culture are the clinical parameters most directly relevant to infectiousness and hence to transmission. To increase our understanding of the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2, especially in PAMS cases and those infected with the B.1.1.7 variant, we analyzed viral load data from 25,381 German cases, including 9519 hospitalized patients, 6110 PAMS cases from walk-in test centers, 1533 B.1.1.7 variant infections, and the viral load time series of 4434 (mainly hospitalized) patients. Viral load results were then combined with estimated cell culture isolation probabilities, producing a clinical proxy estimate of infectiousness.
RESULTS
PAMS subjects had, at the first positive test, viral loads and estimated infectiousness only slightly less than hospitalized patients. Similarly, children were found to have mean viral loads only slightly lower (0.5 log
10
units
or less) than those of adults and ~78% of the adult peak cell culture isolation probability. Eight percent of first-positive viral loads were 10
9
copies per swab or higher, across a wide age range (mean 37.6 years, standard deviation 13.4 years), representing a likely highly infectious minority, one-third of whom were PAMS. Relative to non-B.1.1.7 cases, patients with the B.1.1.7 variant had viral loads that were higher by a factor of 10 and estimated cell culture infectivity that was higher by a factor of 2.6. Similar ranges of viral loads from B.1.1.7 and B.1.177 samples were shown to be capable of causing infection in Caco-2 cell culture. A time-course analysis estimates that a peak viral load of 10
8.1
copies per swab is reached 4.3 days after onset of shedding and shows that, across the course of infection, hospitalized patients have slightly higher viral loads than nonhospitalized cases, who in turn have viral loads slightly higher than PAMS cases. Higher viral loads are observed in first-positive tests of PAMS subjects, likely as a result of systematic earlier testing. Mean culture isolation probability declines to 0.5 at 5 days after peak viral load and to 0.3 at 10 days after peak viral load. We estimate a rate of viral load decline of 0.17 log
10
units per day, which, combined with reported estimates of incubation time and time to loss of successful cell culture isolation, suggests that viral load peaks 1 to 3 days before onset of symptoms (in symptomatic cases).
CONCLUSION
PAMS subjects who test positive at walk-in test centers can be expected to be approximately as infectious as hospitalized patients. The level of expected infectious viral shedding of PAMS people is of high importance because they are circulating in the community at the time of detection of infection. Although viral load and cell culture infectivity cannot be translated directly to transmission probability, it is likely that the rapid spread of the B.1.1.7 variant is partly attributable to higher viral load in these cases. Easily measured virological parameters can be used, for example, to estimate transmission risk from different groups (by age, gender, clinical status, etc.), to quantify variance, to show differences in virus variants, to highlight and quantify overdispersion, and to inform quarantine, containment, and elimination strategies.
Viral load and cell culture infectivity in 25,381 SARS-CoV-2 infections.
(
A
) Viral loads in presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic cases (PAMS; red), hospitalized patients (blue), and other subjects (black). (
B
) Expected first-positive viral load and cell culture isolation probability, colored as in (A). (
C
) Temporal estimation with lines representing patients, colored as in (A). (
D
) As in (C), but colored by age.
Two elementary parameters for quantifying viral infection and shedding are viral load and whether samples yield a replicating virus isolate in cell culture. We examined 25,381 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany, including 6110 from test centers attended by presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic (PAMS) subjects, 9519 who were hospitalized, and 1533 B.1.1.7 lineage infections. The viral load of the youngest subjects was lower than that of the older subjects by 0.5 (or fewer) log
10
units, and they displayed an estimated ~78% of the peak cell culture replication probability; in part this was due to smaller swab sizes and unlikely to be clinically relevant. Viral loads above 10
9
copies per swab were found in 8% of subjects, one-third of whom were PAMS, with a mean age of 37.6 years. We estimate 4.3 days from onset of shedding to peak viral load (10
8.1
RNA copies per swab) and peak cell culture isolation probability (0.75). B.1.1.7 subjects had mean log
10
viral load 1.05 higher than that of non-B.1.1.7 subjects, and the estimated cell culture replication probability of B.1.1.7 subjects was higher by a factor of 2.6.
The ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for public health laboratories as virus isolates are unavailable while there is growing evidence that the ...outbreak is more widespread than initially thought, and international spread through travellers does already occur.
We aimed to develop and deploy robust diagnostic methodology for use in public health laboratory settings without having virus material available.
Here we present a validated diagnostic workflow for 2019-nCoV, its design relying on close genetic relatedness of 2019-nCoV with SARS coronavirus, making use of synthetic nucleic acid technology.
The workflow reliably detects 2019-nCoV, and further discriminates 2019-nCoV from SARS-CoV. Through coordination between academic and public laboratories, we confirmed assay exclusivity based on 297 original clinical specimens containing a full spectrum of human respiratory viruses. Control material is made available through European Virus Archive - Global (EVAg), a European Union infrastructure project.
The present study demonstrates the enormous response capacity achieved through coordination of academic and public laboratories in national and European research networks.
IMPORTANCE: Myalgia, increased levels of creatine kinase, and persistent muscle weakness have been reported in patients with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To study skeletal muscle and myocardial inflammation ...in patients with COVID-19 who had died. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This case-control autopsy series was conducted in a university hospital as a multidisciplinary postmortem investigation. Patients with COVID-19 or other critical illnesses who had died between March 2020 and February 2021 and on whom an autopsy was performed were included. Individuals for whom informed consent to autopsy was available and the postmortem interval was less than 6 days were randomly selected. Individuals who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 per polymerase chain reaction test results and had clinical features suggestive of COVID-19 were compared with individuals with negative SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test results and an absence of clinical features suggestive of COVID-19. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Inflammation of skeletal muscle tissue was assessed by quantification of immune cell infiltrates, expression of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and class II antigens on the sarcolemma, and a blinded evaluation on a visual analog scale ranging from absence of pathology to the most pronounced pathology. Inflammation of cardiac muscles was assessed by quantification of immune cell infiltrates. RESULTS: Forty-three patients with COVID-19 (median interquartile range age, 72 16 years; 31 men 72%) and 11 patients with diseases other than COVID-19 (median interquartile range age, 71 5 years; 7 men 64%) were included. Skeletal muscle samples from the patients who died with COVID-19 showed a higher overall pathology score (mean SD, 3.4 1.8 vs 1.5 1.0; 95% CI, 0-3; P < .001) and a higher inflammation score (mean SD, 3.5 2.1 vs 1.0 0.6; 95% CI, 0-4; P < .001). Relevant expression of MHC class I antigens on the sarcolemma was present in 23 of 42 specimens from patients with COVID-19 (55%) and upregulation of MHC class II antigens in 7 of 42 specimens from patients with COVID-19 (17%), but neither were found in any of the controls. Increased numbers of natural killer cells (median interquartile range, 8 8 vs 3 4 cells per 10 high-power fields; 95% CI, 1-10 cells per 10 high-power fields; P < .001) were found. Skeletal muscles showed more inflammatory features than cardiac muscles, and inflammation was most pronounced in patients with COVID-19 with chronic courses. In some muscle specimens, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction, but no evidence for a direct viral infection of myofibers was found by immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this case-control study of patients who had died with and without COVID-19, most individuals with severe COVID-19 showed signs of myositis ranging from mild to severe. Inflammation of skeletal muscles was associated with the duration of illness and was more pronounced than cardiac inflammation. Detection of viral load was low or negative in most skeletal and cardiac muscles and probably attributable to circulating viral RNA rather than genuine infection of myocytes. This suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may be associated with a postinfectious, immune-mediated myopathy.
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8.
Forest restoration: Expanding agriculture Delzeit, Ruth; Pongratz, Julia; Schneider, Julia M. ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
10/2019, Volume:
366, Issue:
6463
Journal Article
Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future ...yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5‐8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1‐2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro‐ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5‐8.5. The results highlight that region‐specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.
Variety adaptation could potentially outweigh climate change induced production losses and increase global production by 19%. Therefore, new adapted crop varieties are required. In 2100, about 40% of global cropland could require new adapted crop varieties to avoid yield losses from climate change. However, under high level of warming, the risk increases that adapted crop varieties are not available, because regional temperatures could exceed temperature ranges of currently grown cultivars. Thus, regional breeding efforts are required to face the challenge.
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