► CropRota is a crop rotation model. It generates typical crop rotations from farm to regional level based on observed land use data and agronomic criteria. ► A case study application proves the ...value of CropRota to support integrated land use modeling. Model output appears of sufficient quality to most applications of integrated land use modeling. ► CropRota is generic, i.e. it is adaptable to different regions and geographic scales. Agronomic parameters can be defined with local expert knowledge.
Crop rotations influence the sustainability of agricultural systems. Integrated land use modeling frameworks increasingly acknowledge their role when analyzing economic and environmental impacts of agricultural production systems. However, insufficient data on crop rotations often challenge their consideration. In this article, we present the crop rotation model CropRota, which integrates agronomic criteria and observed land use data to generate typical crop rotations for farms and regions. The article describes the model and data requirements as well as an application of CropRota to 579 farms in the Austrian Mostviertel region. Model validation and sensitivity analysis are conducted to reveal robustness and accuracy of model outputs as well as its appropriateness for supporting integrated land use analyses. Comparisons between modeled and observed crop sequences from seven years of field observations show that the average area-weighted deviations range between 11% and 105% depending on the procedure of comparison and model specifications. The results indicate that CropRota is a suitable tool for the estimation of typical crop rotations from observed land use data. In addition, the model is sufficiently flexible to spatial scales and research contexts as frequently required in integrated land use analyses.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
(1) Background: The distribution of tumor volumes is important for various aspects of cancer research. Unfortunately, tumor volume is rarely documented in tumor registries; usually only maximum tumor ...diameter is. This paper presents a method to derive tumor volume distributions from tumor diameter distributions. (2) Methods: The hypothesis is made that tumor maximum diameters d are Weibull distributed, and tumor volume is proportional to dk, where k is a parameter from the Weibull distribution of d. The assumption is tested by using a test dataset of 176 segmented tumor volumes and comparing the k obtained by fitting the Weibull distribution of d and from a direct fit of the volumes. Finally, tumor volume distributions are calculated from the maximum diameters of the SEER database for breast, NSCLC and liver. (3) Results: For the test dataset, the k values obtained from the two separate methods were found to be k = 2.14 ± 0.36 (from Weibull distribution of d) and 2.21 ± 0.25 (from tumor volume). The tumor diameter data from the SEER database were fitted to a Weibull distribution, and the resulting parameters were used to calculate the corresponding exponential tumor volume distributions with an average volume obtained from the diameter fit. (4) Conclusions: The agreement of the fitted k using independent data supports the presented methodology to obtain tumor volume distributions. The method can be used to obtain tumor volume distributions when only maximum tumor diameters are available.
•An agent-based model is applied for rural communities in the Poyang Lake district.•The model simulates how climate affects households and the government until 2035.•The studied scenarios show strong ...impacts of climate change on land use change.•Only the B1 scenario results in a stable allocation of land to different uses.•Other scenarios increase urban and cropland areas at the expense of natural areas.
Land use change and climate change are two major global modifications of our environment and are predicted to continue in the future. To assess how climate change affects land use and regional development in the Poyang Lake district in China, we use agent-based modeling and simulate the physical and socio-economic drivers within two interactive sub-models for urban expansion and rural development. The modeling outputs from 1985 to 2005 show good agreement with the observed land use change. Possible land use changes and regional development paths until 2035 are examined for three SRES scenarios including A1B (rapid growth), A2 (regional-diversified growth) and B1 (growth with clean technologies). The results show that climate change induced impacts on land use change and regional development are highly relevant and may even amplify the complex interactions. In particular, cropland, forest, water area, urban, and grassland are more sensitive to these changes than unused land. The more environmental friendly B1 scenario results in less concerning land use changes.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Climate mitigation targets must involve the agricultural sector, which contributes 10%–14% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To evaluate options for implementing mitigation ...measures in the agricultural sector, farmers’ knowledge, positions, and attitudes towards agricultural GHG emissions, their accounting, and reduction need to be understood. Using an online survey, we asked 254 German farmers about their motivation to reduce GHG emissions and their acceptance of possible regulation schemes. We examined differences between relevant farming sectors, i.e., conventional versus organic and livestock keeping versus crop-cultivating farms. Results show that German farmers are aware of climatic changes and feel a general commitment to reducing GHG emissions but lack sufficient information. We identified agricultural magazines as the most effective tool for disseminating relevant knowledge. German farmers would feel motivated to adopt climate-friendly farming styles if products were labeled accordingly and if they received subsidies and public acknowledgment for their effort. As long as there is no regulation of agricultural GHGs through taxes or subsidies, personal motivation is yet the strongest motivation for voluntary emission reduction. Our findings are timely for the further development of strategies and instruments that reduce agricultural GHG emission and account for the farmers’ views. The dataset is available for further investigations.
The problem of expressing cumulative detrimental effect of radiation exposure is revisited. All conventionally used and computationally complex lifetime or time-integrated risks are based on current ...population and health statistical data, with unknown future secular trends, that are projected far into the future. It is shown that application of conventionally used lifetime or time-integrated attributable risks (LAR, AR) should be limited to exposures under 1 Gy. More general quantities, such as excess lifetime risk (ELR) and, to a lesser extent, risk of exposure-induced death (REID), are free of dose constraints, but are even more computationally complex than LAR and AR and rely on the unknown total radiation effect on demographic and health statistical data. Appropriate assessment of time-integrated risk of a specific outcome following high-dose (more than 1 Gy) exposure requires consideration of competing risks for other radiation-attributed outcomes and the resulting ELR estimate has an essentially non-linear dose response. Limitations caused by basing conventionally applied time-integrated risks on current population and health statistical data are that they are: (a) not well suited for risk estimates for atypical groups of exposed persons not readily represented by the general population; and (b) not optimal for risk projections decades into the future due to large uncertainties in developments of the future secular trends in the population-specific disease rates. Alternative disease-specific quantities, baseline and attributable survival fractions, based on reduction of survival chances are considered here and are shown to be very useful in circumventing most aspects of these limitations. Another main quantity, named as radiation-attributed decrease of survival (RADS), is recommended here to represent cumulative radiation risk conditional on survival until a certain age. RADS, historically known in statistical literature as “cumulative risk”, is only based on the radiation-attributed hazard and is insensitive to competing risks. Therefore, RADS is eminently suitable for risk projections in emergency situations and for estimating radiation risks for persons exposed after therapeutic or interventional medical applications of radiation or in other highly atypical groups of exposed persons, such as astronauts.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
When fractionation schemes for hypofractionation and stereotactic body radiotherapy are considered, a reliable cell survival model at high dose is needed for calculating doses of similar biological ...effectiveness. An alternative to the LQ-model is the track-event theory which is based on the probabilities for one- and two two-track events. A one-track-event (OTE) is always represented by at least two simultaneous double strand breaks. A two-track-event (TTE) results in one double strand break. Therefore at least two two-track-events on the same or different chromosomes are necessary to produce an event which leads to cell sterilization. It is obvious that the probabilities of OTEs and TTEs must somehow depend on the geometrical structure of the chromatin. In terms of the track-event theory the ratio ε of the probabilities of OTEs and TTEs includes the geometrical dependence and is obtained in this work by simple Monte Carlo simulations.
For this work it was assumed that the anchors of loop forming chromatin are most sensitive to radiation induced cell deaths. Therefore two adjacent tetranucleosomes representing the loop anchors were digitized. The probability ratio ε of OTEs and TTEs was factorized into a radiation quality dependent part and a geometrical part: ε = εion ∙ εgeo. εgeo was obtained for two situations, by applying Monte Carlo simulation for DNA on the tetranucleosomes itself and for linker DNA. Low energy electrons were represented by randomly distributed ionizations and high energy electrons by ionizations which were simulated on rays. εion was determined for electrons by using results from nanodosimetric measurements. The calculated ε was compared to the ε obtained from fits of the track event model to 42 sets of experimental human cell survival data.
When the two tetranucleosomes are in direct contact and the hits are randomly distributed εgeo and ε are 0.12 and 0.85, respectively. When the hits are simulated on rays εgeo and ε are 0.10 and 0.71. For the linker-DNA εgeo and ε for randomly distributed hits are 0.010 and 0.073, and for hits on rays 0.0058 and 0.041, respectively. The calculated ε fits the experimentally obtained ε = 0.64±0.32 best for hits on the tetranucleosome when they are close to each other both, for high and low energy electrons.
The parameter εgeo of the track event model was obtained by pure geometrical considerations of the chromatin structure and is 0.095 ± 0.022. It can be used as a fixed parameter in the track-event theory.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Many inhabitants of the Northeastern region of India (NER) are poor and have to rely on subsistence farming for a livelihood and are therefore vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. To ...enhance the resilience of the farmers and the entire agricultural sector of NER, stakeholders need to acquire additional and/or specialized competencies to deal with the negative impacts of climate change. In this study, we systematically identify and prioritize crucial competencies for change agents, farmers and institutions in NER. We used a modified Delphi methodology with several iterations to lead experts towards a consensus about the most pressing competencies for each stakeholder group. The items were prioritized using a composite scoring approach. The findings reveal that for change agents in NER, an open-minded attitude and expertise in linking farmers to markets are highly rated competencies. For the farmers, eco-friendly farming skills and a problem-solving attitude emerged as key competencies. Biodiversity conservation and integrated farming skills are also highly desirable. Concerning the institutions, the Krishi Vigyan Kendras (farm science centers) have to play a priority role in implementing policies promoting sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture, as they are the institutional link to farming communities. The experts are confident that the overall sustainability of the agricultural sector in NER can be considerably enhanced by developing these key competencies.
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BFBNIB, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
A comparative treatment planning study has been performed between intensity modulated photon and proton therapy to investigate the ability of both modalities to spare organs at risk in the head and ...neck region while keeping target dose homogeneous. Additional advantage of reducing the spot size for IMPT was also investigated. The treatment planning comparison was extended by varying the number of fields to study its effect on the performance of each modality. Risks of secondary cancer induction were also calculated for all modalities.
Five planning CTs were selected for the study. Four different constraints were set to the organs at risk in order to measure the resulting dose homogeneity in the target volume. Five and nine field plans were made for IMXT and 3, 5 and 9 field plans were made for IMPT, for both spot sizes. Dose homogeneity as a function of the mean parotid dose was visualized using a ‘pseudo’ Pareto-optimal front approach. Risks of secondary cancer were estimated using the organ equivalent dose model.
Critical organs were best spared using 3-field IMPT and, at least for IMPT, little advantage was seen with increasing field numbers. Reducing the spot size does give an advantage. In contrast, there was a significant advantage in going from 5 to 9 fields for IMXT. Secondary cancer risk was lowest for the IMPT plans with reduced spot size, for which normal tissue received the lowest integral dose. Interestingly, although integral dose remained the same, increasing the number of IMPT fields increased the secondary cancer risk, due to the increased volume of tissue irradiated to low dose.
IMPT has a better ability to spare organs at risk than IMXT for the same dose homogeneity. It also significantly reduced the estimated risk of secondary cancer induction and the use of small numbers of fields further increased this advantage. Given that target homogeneity and normal tissue sparing were equally good with the 3 field IMPT, there appears to be a clear rationale to deliver small numbers of fields for IMPT.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation ...process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-Based Interaction and Learning in Environmental Systems) framework, we analyze stakeholders' actions, priorities, and goals in the climate change adaptation process. A structured questionnaire was designed based on a five-point Likert scale covering the concepts of livelihood capital, climate change adaptation, investment priorities, farming constraints, and farmers' decision-making factors. Field data were collected from 800 farmers during December 2021 to February 2022 in the irrigated agricultural regions in the Indus Plain of the Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan. We employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling approach to the VIABLE framework (VIABLE-SEM) to analyze the collected data. The results confirm livelihood capital as the most significant determinant (beta = 0.57, effect size = 0.503) for farmers’ adaptation strategies in the Indus plain. Other variables, such as the principal purpose of farming, available investment options, natural and human constraints, appear less important. We identified 13 significant viability pathways that show investment priorities, farming purposes, and constraints faced by the farmers in climate change adaptation. The study also found that non-climatic factors negatively influence (beta = −0.156) the relationship between capital and adaptation, while climatic factors positively influence (beta = 0.050) this relationship. Interestingly, the presence of these influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of Pakistan.
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•The VIABLE-SEM model explains 62.2% of farmers' adaptation strategies in Pakistan's irrigated agriculture.•Livelihood capital alone accounts for 57 % of the adaptation process; other factors play a lesser role.•Non-climatic factors impede the capital-adaptation relationship, whereas climatic factors bolster it.•The presence of influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
An illustrative sample mission of a Mars swing-by mission lasting one calendar year was chosen to highlight the application of European risk assessment software to cancer (all solid cancer plus ...leukaemia) risks from radiation exposures in space quantified with organ dose equivalent rates from model calculations based on the quantity Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS). The relevant dose equivalent to the colon for radiation exposures from this Mars swing-by mission were found to vary between 198 and 482 mSv. These doses depend on sex and the two other factors investigated here of: solar activity phase (maximum or minimum); and the choice of space radiation quality factor used in the calculations of dose equivalent. Such doses received at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old will result in: the probability of surviving until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by a range from 0.38% (95%CI: 0.29; 0.49) to 1.29% (95%CI: 1.06; 1.56); and the probability of surviving cancer free until retirement age being reduced by a range from 0.78% (95%CI: 0.59; 0.99) to 2.63% (95%CI: 2.16; 3.18). As expected from the features of the models applied to quantify the general dosimetric and radiation epidemiology parameters, the cancer incidence risks in terms of surviving cancer free, are higher than the cancer mortality risks in terms of surviving, the risks for females are higher than for males, and the risks at solar minimum are higher than at solar maximum.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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