Spatial constraints are fundamental to integrating the spatial suitability to urbanization into Cellular Automata-based (CA) urban growth models, but there is a lack of consensus on the optimal ...methods for this purpose. This study compared the performance of three probabilistic classifiers to generate suitability surfaces for CA-based urban growth models: Logistic Regression using Generalized Linear Model (LR-GLM), Logistic Regression using Generalized Additive Model (LR-GAM), and Random Forest (RF). The study also evaluated the sensitivity of these classifiers to the input urban map adopted as a dependent variable. For this analysis, seven maps were tested: the historical urban map containing the entire extent of the urban footprint, and six additional maps containing only the recently urbanized areas over timeframes ranging from one year up to two decades. The comparison evaluated the goodness of fit of the suitability surfaces and the spatial accuracy of the urban growth simulations, using five large Brazilian cities as case study areas. The results revealed that the RF classifier significantly outperformed the LR-based classifiers. However, this overperformance was more prominent when incorporating the new urban cells over the last one to two decades of growth as input urban maps. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of the input urban maps emphasized the benefits of calibrating the classifier using the recently urbanized cells rather than the historical urban extent. We consistently observed these results concerning classifiers and input urban maps across all five case study areas. Thus, the RF classifier combined with a training dataset containing the newly urbanized areas over at least the last 10 years systematically resulted in the suitability surfaces with the highest predictability among all tested scenarios.
•Highest predictibability was achieved with the random forest classifier.•Best calibration was obtained using the recently urbanized cells as input urban map.•These research findings were consistent across all five case study areas.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated ...flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies’ ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies’ resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time.
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Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more ...frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally, the results suggest that building materials as well as various building aspects, such as the existence of a shop window and the surroundings, might have an effect on the resulting damage. To verify and confirm the outcomes as well as to support future mitigation strategies, risk management and planning, more comprehensive and systematic data collection is necessary.
Abstract Flood damage data are needed for various applications. Structural damage of buildings can reflect not only the economic damage but also the life‐threatening condition of a building, which ...provide crucial information for disaster response and recovery. Since traditional on‐site data collection shortly after a disaster is challenging, remote sensing data can be of great help, cover a wider area and be deployed earlier in time than on‐site surveys. However, this has its challenges and limitations. We elucidate on that by presenting two case studies from flash floods in Germany. First, we assessed the reliability of an existing flood damage schema, which differentiates from minor (structural) damage to complete building collapse. We compared two on‐site raters of the 2016 Braunsbach flood, reaching an excellent level of reliability. Second, we mapped structural building damage after the flood in the Ahr valley in 2021 using a textured 3D mesh and orthophotos. Here, we evaluated the remote sense‐based damage mapping done by three raters. Although the heterogeneity of ratings using remote sensing data is larger than among on‐site ratings, we consider it fit‐for‐purpose when compared with on‐site mapping, especially for event documentation and as basis for financial damage estimation and less complex numerical modelling.
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Rapidly evolving floods are rare but powerful drivers of landscape reorganisation that have severe and long-lasting impacts on both the functions of a landscape’s subsystems and the affected society. ...The July 2021 flood that particularly hit several river catchments of the Eifel region in western Germany and Belgium was a drastic example. While media and scientists highlighted the meteorological and hydrological aspects of this flood, it was not just the rising water levels in the main valleys that posed a hazard, caused damage, and drove environmental reorganisation. Instead, the concurrent coupling of landscape elements and the wood, sediment, and debris carried by the fast-flowing water made this flood so devastating and difficult to predict. Because more intense floods are able to interact with more landscape components, they at times reveal rare non-linear feedbacks, which may be hidden during smaller events due to their high thresholds of initiation. Here, we briefly review the boundary conditions of the 14–15 July 2021 flood and discuss the emerging features that made this event different from previous floods. We identify hillslope processes, aspects of debris mobilisation, the legacy of sustained human land use, and emerging process connections and feedbacks as critical non-hydrological dimensions of the flood. With this landscape scale perspective, we develop requirements for improved future event anticipation, mitigation, and fundamental system understanding.
Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere Häuser stark beschädigt oder zerstört wurden. Die ...Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Frühsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgelöst wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelveröffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs “Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich verändernden Welt” (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universität Potsdam präsentiert. Während Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Gebäudeschä- den. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des während des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Gebäuden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Gebäudecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergefährdung die Berücksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gelände, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können.
•Tumor-agnostic ctDNA sequencing in CNSL is feasible and allows for detection of PRD.•We propose the molecular prognostic index for CNSL, a model integrating clinical and molecular features for ...improved risk profiling in CNSL.
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State-of-the-art response assessment of central nervous system lymphoma (CNSL) by magnetic resonance imaging is challenging and an insufficient predictor of treatment outcomes. Accordingly, the development of novel risk stratification strategies in CNSL is a high unmet medical need. We applied ultrasensitive circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) sequencing to 146 plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from 67 patients, aiming to develop an entirely noninvasive dynamic risk model considering clinical and molecular features of CNSL. Our ultrasensitive method allowed for the detection of CNSL-derived mutations in plasma ctDNA with high concordance to CSF and tumor tissue. Undetectable plasma ctDNA at baseline was associated with favorable outcomes. We tracked tumor-specific mutations in plasma-derived ctDNA over time and developed a novel CNSL biomarker based on this information: peripheral residual disease (PRD). Persistence of PRD after treatment was highly predictive of relapse. Integrating established baseline clinical risk factors with assessment of radiographic response and PRD during treatment resulted in the development and independent validation of a novel tool for risk stratification: molecular prognostic index for CNSL (MOP-C). MOP-C proved to be highly predictive of outcomes in patients with CNSL (failure-free survival hazard ratio per risk group of 6.60; 95% confidence interval, 3.12-13.97; P < .0001) and is publicly available at www.mop-c.com. Our results highlight the role of ctDNA sequencing in CNSL. MOP-C has the potential to improve the current standard of clinical risk stratification and radiographic response assessment in patients with CNSL, ultimately paving the way toward individualized treatment.
Heger et al report on a novel risk stratification schema for patients with central nervous system lymphoma (CNSL) using ultrasensitive circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) sequencing in 67 patients at baseline and after therapy. Undetectable plasma ctDNA predicts favorable outcomes while persistence of peripheral residual disease following therapy predicts for relapse. The authors developed a molecular prognostic index for CNSL that could improve standard risk stratification and allow for more individualized treatment.
Postoperative delirium (POD) and postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) are frequent and serious complications after surgery. We aim to investigate the association between genetic variants in ...cholinergic candidate genes according to the Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes - pathway: cholinergic neurotransmission with the development of POD or POCD in elderly patients.
This analysis is part of the European BioCog project ( www.biocog.eu ), a prospective multicenter observational study with elderly surgical patients. Patients with a Mini-Mental-State-Examination score ≤ 23 points were excluded. POD was assessed up to seven days after surgery using the Nursing Delirium Screening Scale, Confusion Assessment Method and a patient chart review. POCD was assessed three months after surgery with a neuropsychological test battery. Genotyping was performed on the Illumina Infinium Global Screening Array. Associations with POD and POCD were analyzed using logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, comorbidities and duration of anesthesia (for POCD analysis additionally for education). Odds ratios (OR) refer to minor allele counts (0, 1, 2).
745 patients could be included in the POD analysis, and 452 in the POCD analysis. The rate of POD within this group was 20.8% (155 patients), and the rate of POCD was 10.2% (46 patients). In a candidate gene approach three genetic variants of the cholinergic genes CHRM2 and CHRM4 were associated with POD (OR 95% confidence interval, rs8191992: 0.610.46; 0.80; rs8191992: 1.601.22; 2.09; rs2067482: 1.641.10; 2.44). No associations were found for POCD.
We found an association between genetic variants of CHRM2 and CHRM4 and POD. Further studies are needed to investigate whether disturbances in acetylcholine release and synaptic plasticity are involved in the development of POD.
ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02265263.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Ultrafast IR spectroscopy is used to monitor the nonequilibrium backbone dynamics of a cyclic peptide in the amide I vibrational range with picosecond time resolution. A conformational change is ...induced by means of a photoswitch integrated into the peptide backbone. Although the main conformational change of the backbone is completed after only 20 ps, the subsequent equilibration in the new region of conformational space continues for times > 16 ns. Relaxation and equilibration processes of the peptide backbone occur on a discrete hierarchy of time scales. Albeit possessing only a few conformational degrees of freedom compared with a protein, the peptide behaves highly nontrivially and provides insights into the complexity of fast protein folding.
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