The epidemiology of dengue is characterised by irregular epidemic outbreaks and desynchronised dynamics of its four co-circulating virus serotypes. Whilst infection by one serotype appears to convey ...life-long protection to homologous infection, it is believed to be a risk factor for severe disease manifestations upon secondary, heterologous infection due to the phenomenon of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Subsequent clinical infections are rarely reported and, since the majority of dengue infections are generally asymptomatic, it is not clear if and to what degree tertiary or quaternary infections contribute to dengue epidemiology. Here we investigate the effect of third and subsequent infections on the transmission dynamics of dengue and show that although the qualitative patterns are largely equivalent, the system more readily exhibits the desynchronised serotype oscillations and multi-annual epidemic outbreaks upon their inclusion. More importantly, permitting third and fourth infections significantly increases the force of infection without resorting to high basic reproductive numbers. Realistic age-prevalent patterns and seroconversion rates are therefore easier reconciled with a low value of dengue's transmission potential if allowing for more than two infections; this should have important consequences for dengue control and intervention measures.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Dengue exhibits focal clustering in households and neighborhoods, driven by local mosquito population dynamics, human population immunity, and fine scale human and mosquito movement. We tested the ...hypothesis that spatiotemporal clustering of homotypic dengue cases is disrupted by introduction of the arbovirus-blocking bacterium Wolbachia (wMel-strain) into the Aedes aegypti mosquito population. We analysed 318 serotyped and geolocated dengue cases (and 5921 test-negative controls) from a randomized controlled trial in Yogyakarta, Indonesia of wMel deployments. We find evidence of spatial clustering up to 300 m among the 265 dengue cases (3083 controls) in the untreated trial arm. Participant pairs enrolled within 30 days and 50 m had a 4.7-fold increase (compared to 95% CI on permutation-based null distribution: 0.1, 1.2) in the odds of being homotypic (i.e. potentially transmission-related) as compared to pairs occurring at any distance. In contrast, we find no evidence of spatiotemporal clustering among the 53 dengue cases (2838 controls) resident in the wMel-treated arm. Introgression of wMel Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti mosquito populations interrupts focal dengue virus transmission leading to reduced case incidence; the true intervention effect may be greater than the 77% efficacy measured in the primary analysis of the Yogyakarta trial.
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Recent field trials have demonstrated that dengue incidence can be substantially reduced by introgressing strains of the endosymbiotic bacterium
into Aedes aegypti mosquito populations. This strategy ...relies on
reducing the susceptibility of
to disseminated infection by positive-sense RNA viruses like dengue. However, RNA viruses are well known to adapt to antiviral pressures. Here, we review the viral infection stages where selection for
-resistant virus variants could occur. We also consider the genetic constraints imposed on viruses that alternate between vertebrate and invertebrate hosts, and the likely selection pressures to which dengue virus might adapt in order to be effectively transmitted by
that carry
. While there are hurdles to dengue viruses developing resistance to
, we suggest that long-term surveillance for resistant viruses should be an integral component of
-introgression biocontrol programs.
Dengue and other arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including Zika and chikungunya, present an increasing public health challenge in tropical regions. Current vector control ...strategies have failed to curb disease transmission, but continue to be employed despite the absence of robust evidence for their effectiveness or optimal implementation. The World Mosquito Program has developed a novel approach to arbovirus control using Ae. aegypti stably transfected with Wolbachia bacterium, with a significantly reduced ability to transmit dengue, Zika and chikungunya in laboratory experiments. Modelling predicts this will translate to local elimination of dengue in most epidemiological settings. This study protocol describes the first trial to measure the efficacy of Wolbachia in reducing dengue virus transmission in the field.
The study is a parallel, two-arm, non-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in a single site in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The aim is to determine whether large-scale deployment of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes leads to a measurable reduction in dengue incidence in treated versus untreated areas. The primary endpoint is symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue virus infection of any severity. The 26 km
study area was subdivided into 24 contiguous clusters, allocated randomly 1:1 to receive Wolbachia deployments or no intervention. We use a novel epidemiological study design, the cluster-randomised test-negative design trial, in which dengue cases and arbovirus-negative controls are sampled concurrently from among febrile patients presenting to a network of primary care clinics, with case or control status classified retrospectively based on the results of laboratory diagnostic testing. Efficacy is estimated from the odds ratio of Wolbachia exposure distribution (probability of living in a Wolbachia-treated area) among virologically confirmed dengue cases compared to test-negative controls. A secondary per-protocol analysis allows for individual Wolbachia exposure levels to be assessed to account for movements outside the cluster and the heterogeneity in local Wolbachia prevalence among treated clusters.
The findings from this study will provide the first experimental evidence for the efficacy of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence. Together with observational evidence that is accumulating from pragmatic deployments of Wolbachia in other field sites, this will provide valuable data to estimate the effectiveness of this novel approach to arbovirus control, inform future cost-effectiveness estimates, and guide plans for large-scale deployments in other endemic settings.
ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT03055585 . Registered on 14 February 2017.
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Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease of humans. The host and virus variables associated with dengue virus (DENV) transmission from symptomatic dengue cases (n = 208) to Aedes aegypti ...mosquitoes during 407 independent exposure events was defined. The 50% mosquito infectious dose for each of DENV-1-4 ranged from 6.29 to 7.52 log10 RNA copies/mL of plasma. Increasing day of illness, declining viremia, and rising antibody titers were independently associated with reduced risk of DENV transmission. High early DENV plasma viremia levels in patients were a marker of the duration of human infectiousness, and blood meals containing high concentrations of DENV were positively associated with the prevalence of infectious mosquitoes 14 d after blood feeding. Ambulatory dengue cases had lower viremia levels compared with hospitalized dengue cases but nonetheless at levels predicted to be infectious to mosquitoes. These data define serotype-specific viremia levels that vaccines or drugs must inhibit to prevent DENV transmission.
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Dengue is re-emerging throughout the tropical world, causing frequent recurrent epidemics. The initial clinical manifestation of dengue often is confused with other febrile states confounding both ...clinical management and disease surveillance. Evidence-based triage strategies that identify individuals likely to be in the early stages of dengue illness can direct patient stratification for clinical investigations, management, and virological surveillance. Here we report the identification of algorithms that differentiate dengue from other febrile illnesses in the primary care setting and predict severe disease in adults.
A total of 1,200 patients presenting in the first 72 hours of acute febrile illness were recruited and followed up for up to a 4-week period prospectively; 1,012 of these were recruited from Singapore and 188 from Vietnam. Of these, 364 were dengue RT-PCR positive; 173 had dengue fever, 171 had dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 20 had dengue shock syndrome as final diagnosis. Using a C4.5 decision tree classifier for analysis of all clinical, haematological, and virological data, we obtained a diagnostic algorithm that differentiates dengue from non-dengue febrile illness with an accuracy of 84.7%. The algorithm can be used differently in different disease prevalence to yield clinically useful positive and negative predictive values. Furthermore, an algorithm using platelet count, crossover threshold value of a real-time RT-PCR for dengue viral RNA, and presence of pre-existing anti-dengue IgG antibodies in sequential order identified cases with sensitivity and specificity of 78.2% and 80.2%, respectively, that eventually developed thrombocytopenia of 50,000 platelet/mm(3) or less, a level previously shown to be associated with haemorrhage and shock in adults with dengue fever.
This study shows a proof-of-concept that decision algorithms using simple clinical and haematological parameters can predict diagnosis and prognosis of dengue disease, a finding that could prove useful in disease management and surveillance.
Dengue is a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries. Rapid and easy diagnosis of dengue can assist patient triage and care-management. The detection of DENV NS1 on rapid ...lateral flow tests offers a fast route to a presumptive dengue diagnosis but careful evaluations are urgently needed as more and more people use them.
The sensitivity and specificity of the Bio-Rad NS1 Ag Strip and SD Dengue Duo (NS1/IgM/IgG) lateral flow rapid tests were evaluated in a panel of plasma samples from 245 Vietnamese patients with RT-PCR confirmed dengue and 47 with other febrile illnesses.
The NS1 rapid tests had similar diagnostic sensitivities (respectively 61.6% and 62.4%) in confirmed dengue cases but were 100% specific. When IgM/IgG results from the SD Dengue Duo were included in the test interpretation, the sensitivity improved significantly from 62.4% with NS1 alone to 75.5% when NS1 and/or IgM was positive and 83.7% when NS1 and/or IgM and/or IgG was positive. Both NS1 assays were significantly more sensitive for primary than secondary dengue. NS1 positivity was associated with the underlying viraemia as NS1-positive samples had a significantly higher viraemia than NS1-negative samples.
These data suggest that the NS1 test component of these assays are highly specific and have similar levels of sensitivity. The IgM parameter in the SD Duo test improved overall test sensitivity without compromising specificity. The SD Dengue Duo lateral flow rapid test deserves further prospective evaluation in dengue endemic settings.
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Dengue is the most common arboviral disease of humans. There is an unmet need for a therapeutic intervention that reduces the duration and severity of dengue symptoms and diminishes the likelihood of ...severe complications. To this end, there are active discovery efforts in industry and academia to develop interventions, with a focus on small molecule inhibitors of dengue virus replication that are suitable for therapy or chemoprophylaxis. Advancements in animal models of dengue virus infection together with the possibility of a dengue human infection model have further enhanced the platform for dengue drug discovery. Whilst drug discovery efforts gestate, there are ongoing clinical research designed to benefit today's patients, including trials of supportive care interventions, and descriptive studies that should improve the ability of clinicians to make an accurate diagnosis early in the illness course and to identify patients most at risk of progression to severe disease. This review provides a state of the art summary of dengue drug discovery, clinical trials, and supportive allied research and reflects discussions at the 2nd International Dengue Therapeutics Workshop held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, in December 2013.
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Traditional methods of vector control have proven insufficient to reduce the alarming incidence of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya in endemic countries. The bacterium symbiont
Wolbachia
has emerged as ...an efficient pathogen-blocking and self-dispersing agent that reduces the vectorial potential of
Aedes aegypti
populations and potentially impairs arboviral disease transmission. In this work, we report the results of a large-scale
Wolbachia
intervention in Ilha do Governador, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
w
Mel-infected adults were released across residential areas between August 2017 and March 2020. Over 131 weeks, including release and post-release phases, we monitored the
w
Mel prevalence in field specimens and analyzed introgression profiles of two assigned intervention areas, RJ1 and RJ2. Our results revealed that
w
Mel successfully invaded both areas, reaching overall infection rates of 50–70% in RJ1 and 30–60% in RJ2 by the end of the monitoring period. At the neighborhood-level,
w
Mel introgression was heterogeneous in both RJ1 and RJ2, with some profiles sustaining a consistent increase in infection rates and others failing to elicit the same. Correlation analysis revealed a weak overall association between RJ1 and RJ2 (
r
= 0.2849,
p
= 0.0236), and an association at a higher degree when comparing different deployment strategies, vehicle or backpack-assisted, within RJ1 (
r
= 0.4676,
p
< 0.0001) or RJ2 (
r
= 0.6263,
p
< 0.0001). The frequency
knockdown resistance
(
kdr
) alleles in
w
Mel-infected specimens from both areas were consistently high over this study. Altogether, these findings corroborate that
w
Mel can be successfully deployed at large-scale as part of vector control intervention strategies and provide the basis for imminent disease impact studies in Southeastern Brazil.
Understanding trends in dengue disease burden and risk factors for severe disease can inform health service allocation, clinical management, and planning for vaccines and therapeutics. Dengue ...admissions at three tertiary hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, increased between 1996 and 2009, peaking at 22,860 in 2008. Children aged 6-10 years had highest risk of dengue shock syndrome (DSS); however, mortality was highest in younger children and decreased with increasing age (odds ratio OR = 0.52, 95% confidence interval CI = 0.36-0.75 in 6- to 10- year-old children and OR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.16-0.44 in 11- to 15-year-old children compared with 1- to 5-year-old children). Males were overrepresented among dengue cases; however, girls had higher risk of DSS (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.14-1.24) and death (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.14-2.17). Young children with dengue had greatest risk of death and should be targeted in dengue vaccine and drug trials. The increased risk of severe outcomes in girls warrants further attention in studies of pathogenesis, health-seeking behavior, and clinical care.
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