The coexistence of different species of large herbivores (ungulates) in grasslands and savannas has fascinated ecologists for decades. However, changes in climate, land‐use and trophic structure of ...ecosystems increasingly jeopardise the persistence of such diverse assemblages. Body size has been used successfully to explain ungulate niche differentiation with regard to food requirements and predation sensitivity. But this single trait axis insufficiently captures interspecific differences in water requirements and thermoregulatory capacity and thus sensitivity to climate change. Here, we develop a two‐dimensional trait space of body size and minimum dung moisture content that characterises the combined food and water requirements of large herbivores. From this, we predict that increased spatial homogeneity in water availability in drylands reduces the number of ungulate species that will coexist. But we also predict that extreme droughts will cause the larger, water‐dependent grazers as wildebeest, zebra and buffalo–dominant species in savanna ecosystems – to be replaced by smaller, less water‐dependent species. Subsequently, we explore how other constraints such as predation risk and thermoregulation are connected to this two‐dimensional framework. Our novel framework integrates multiple simultaneous stressors for herbivores and yields an extensive set of testable hypotheses about the expected changes in large herbivore community composition following climate change.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
In this paper, we describe the first data release of the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy (VISTA) Deep Extragalactic Observations (VIDEO) survey. VIDEO is a ∼12 deg2 survey in the ...near-infrared Z, Y, J, H and K
s bands, specifically designed to enable the evolution of galaxies and large structures to be traced as a function of both epoch and environment from the present day out to z = 4, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the most massive galaxies up to and into the epoch of reionization. With its depth and area, VIDEO will be able to fully explore the period in the Universe where AGN and starburst activity were at their peak and the first galaxy clusters were beginning to virialize. VIDEO therefore offers a unique data set with which to investigate the interplay between AGN, starbursts and environment, and the role of feedback at a time when it was potentially most crucial.
We provide data over the VIDEO-XMM3 tile, which also covers the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey Deep-1 field (CFHTLS-D1). The released VIDEO data reach a 5σ AB-magnitude depth of Z = 25.7, Y = 24.5, J = 24.4, H = 24.1 and K
s = 23.8 in 2 arcsec diameter apertures (the full depth of Y = 24.6 will be reached within the full integration time in future releases). The data are compared to previous surveys over this field and we find good astrometric agreement with the Two Micron All Sky Survey, and source counts in agreement with the recently released UltraVISTA survey data. The addition of the VIDEO data to the CFHTLS-D1 optical data increases the accuracy of photometric redshifts and significantly reduces the fraction of catastrophic outliers over the redshift range 0 < z < 1 from 5.8 to 3.1 per cent in the absence of an i-band luminosity prior. However, we expect that the main improvement in photometric redshifts will come in the redshift range 1 < z < 4 due to the sensitivity to the Balmer and 4000 Å breaks provided by the near-infrared VISTA filters. All images and catalogues presented in this paper are publicly available through ESO's phase 3 archive and the VISTA Science Archive.
The global extent and distribution of forest trees is central to our understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. We provide the first spatially continuous map of forest tree density at a global ...scale. This map reveals that the global number of trees is approximately 3.04 trillion, an order of magnitude higher than the previous estimate. Of these trees, approximately 1.39 trillion exist in tropical and subtropical forests, with 0.74 trillion in boreal regions and 0.61 trillion in temperate regions. Biome-level trends in tree density demonstrate the importance of climate and topography in controlling local tree densities at finer scales, as well as the overwhelming effect of humans across most of the world. Based on our projected tree densities, we estimate that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by approximately 46% since the start of human civilization.
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IJS, KISLJ, NUK, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
We present Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) High-Band Array observations of the Herschel-ATLAS North Galactic Pole survey area. The survey we have carried out, consisting of four pointings covering around ...142 deg2 of sky in the frequency range 126–173 MHz, does not provide uniform noise coverage but otherwise is representative of the quality of data to be expected in the planned LOFAR wide-area surveys, and has been reduced using recently developed ‘facet calibration’ methods at a resolution approaching the full resolution of the data sets (∼10 × 6 arcsec) and an rms off-source noise that ranges from 100 μJy beam−1 in the centre of the best fields to around 2 mJy beam−1 at the furthest extent of our imaging. We describe the imaging, cataloguing and source identification processes, and present some initial science results based on a 5σ source catalogue. These include (i) an initial look at the radio/far-infrared correlation at 150 MHz, showing that many Herschel sources are not yet detected by LOFAR; (ii) number counts at 150 MHz, including, for the first time, observational constraints on the numbers of star-forming galaxies; (iii) the 150-MHz luminosity functions for active and star-forming galaxies, which agree well with determinations at higher frequencies at low redshift, and show strong redshift evolution of the star-forming population; and (iv) some discussion of the implications of our observations for studies of radio galaxy life cycles.
Genetic evidence for anatomically modern humans (AMH) out of Africa before 75 thousand years ago (ka) and in island southeast Asia (ISEA) before 60 ka (93-61 ka) predates accepted archaeological ...records of occupation in the region. Claims that AMH arrived in ISEA before 60 ka (ref. 4) have been supported only by equivocal or non-skeletal evidence. AMH evidence from this period is rare and lacks robust chronologies owing to a lack of direct dating applications, poor preservation and/or excavation strategies and questionable taxonomic identifications. Lida Ajer is a Sumatran Pleistocene cave with a rich rainforest fauna associated with fossil human teeth. The importance of the site is unclear owing to unsupported taxonomic identification of these fossils and uncertainties regarding the age of the deposit, therefore it is rarely considered in models of human dispersal. Here we reinvestigate Lida Ajer to identify the teeth confidently and establish a robust chronology using an integrated dating approach. Using enamel-dentine junction morphology, enamel thickness and comparative morphology, we show that the teeth are unequivocally AMH. Luminescence and uranium-series techniques applied to bone-bearing sediments and speleothems, and coupled uranium-series and electron spin resonance dating of mammalian teeth, place modern humans in Sumatra between 73 and 63 ka. This age is consistent with biostratigraphic estimations, palaeoclimate and sea-level reconstructions, and genetic evidence for a pre-60 ka arrival of AMH into ISEA. Lida Ajer represents, to our knowledge, the earliest evidence of rainforest occupation by AMH, and underscores the importance of reassessing the timing and environmental context of the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa.
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IJS, KISLJ, NUK, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
To identify common variants contributing to normal variation in two specific domains of cognitive functioning, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of executive functioning and ...information processing speed in non-demented older adults from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) consortium. Neuropsychological testing was available for 5429-32,070 subjects of European ancestry aged 45 years or older, free of dementia and clinical stroke at the time of cognitive testing from 20 cohorts in the discovery phase. We analyzed performance on the Trail Making Test parts A and B, the Letter Digit Substitution Test (LDST), the Digit Symbol Substitution Task (DSST), semantic and phonemic fluency tests, and the Stroop Color and Word Test. Replication was sought in 1311-21860 subjects from 20 independent cohorts. A significant association was observed in the discovery cohorts for the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs17518584 (discovery P-value=3.12 × 10(-8)) and in the joint discovery and replication meta-analysis (P-value=3.28 × 10(-9) after adjustment for age, gender and education) in an intron of the gene cell adhesion molecule 2 (CADM2) for performance on the LDST/DSST. Rs17518584 is located about 170 kb upstream of the transcription start site of the major transcript for the CADM2 gene, but is within an intron of a variant transcript that includes an alternative first exon. The variant is associated with expression of CADM2 in the cingulate cortex (P-value=4 × 10(-4)). The protein encoded by CADM2 is involved in glutamate signaling (P-value=7.22 × 10(-15)), gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transport (P-value=1.36 × 10(-11)) and neuron cell-cell adhesion (P-value=1.48 × 10(-13)). Our findings suggest that genetic variation in the CADM2 gene is associated with individual differences in information processing speed.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The
integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic ...emissions for
the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents
a different future socio-economic projection and political environment.
Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios
– using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We
extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP
concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range
from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5)
emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration
extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil
fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the
fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the
lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau
at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario
projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations
beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total
radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse
gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by
the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation,
we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo
Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs
(SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced
and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two
pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the
effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally
resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the
March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern
latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged
of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound
(∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the
comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas
concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies'
projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a
“hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in
this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term
climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of
futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to –
ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to
approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
We experimentally investigate the nature of 2D phase transitions in a quasi-2D granular fluid. Using a surface decorated with periodically spaced dimples we observe interfacial tension between ...coexisting granular liquid and crystal phases. Measurements of the orientational and translational order parameters and associated susceptibilities indicate that the surface topography alters the order of the phase transition from a two-step continuous one to a first-order liquid-solid one. The interplay of boundary inelasticity and geometry, either order promoting or inhibiting, controls whether it is the granular crystal or the granular fluid which makes contact with the edge. This order induced wetting has important consequences, determining how coexisting phases separate spatially.
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CMK, CTK, FMFMET, IJS, NUK, PNG, UL, UM
Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are lifelong diseases seen predominantly in the developed countries of the world. Whereas ulcerative colitis is a chronic inflammatory condition causing diffuse ...and continuous mucosal inflammation of the colon, Crohn's disease is a heterogeneous entity comprised of several different phenotypes, but can affect the entire gastrointestinal tract. A change in diagnosis from Crohn's disease to ulcerative colitis during the first year of illness occurs in about 10 % - 15 % of cases. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) restricted to the colon that cannot be characterized as either ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease is termed IBD-unclassified (IBDU). The advent of capsule and both single- and double-balloon-assisted enteroscopy is revolutionizing small-bowel imaging and has major implications for diagnosis, classification, therapeutic decision making and outcomes in the management of IBD. The role of these investigations in the diagnosis and management of IBD, however, is unclear. This document sets out the current Consensus reached by a group of international experts in the fields of endoscopy and IBD at a meeting held in Brussels, 12-13th December 2008, organised jointly by the European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation (ECCO) and the Organisation Mondiale d'Endoscopie Digestive (OMED). The Consensus is grouped into seven sections: definitions and diagnosis; suspected Crohn's disease; established Crohn's disease; IBDU; ulcerative colitis (including ileal pouch-anal anastomosis IPAA); paediatric practice; and complications and unresolved questions. Consensus guideline statements are followed by comments on the evidence and opinion. Statements are intended to be read in context with qualifying comments and not read in isolation.
The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a ...suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.
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