Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital ...to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015, and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542-753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBMB, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The emergence of pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza demonstrated that pandemic viruses could be generated in swine. Subsequent reintroduction of H1N1/2009 to swine has occurred in multiple countries. ...Through systematic surveillance of influenza viruses in swine from a Hong Kong abattoir, we characterize a reassortant progeny of H1N1/2009 with swine viruses. Swine experimentally infected with this reassortant developed mild illness and transmitted infection to contact animals. Continued reassortment of H1N1/2009 with swine influenza viruses could produce variants with transmissibility and altered virulence for humans. Global systematic surveillance of influenza viruses in swine is warranted.
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Tapered metallic grooves have been shown to support plasmons - electromagnetically coupled oscillations of free electrons at metal-dielectric interfaces - across a variety of configurations and ...V-like profiles. Such plasmons may be divided into two categories: gap-surface plasmons (GSPs) that are confined laterally between the tapered groove sidewalls and propagate either along the groove axis or normal to the planar surface, and channeled plasmon polaritons (CPPs) that occupy the tapered groove profile and propagate exclusively along the groove axis. Both GSPs and CPPs exhibit an assortment of unique properties that are highly suited to a broad range of cutting-edge nanoplasmonic technologies, including ultracompact photonic circuits, quantum-optics components, enhanced lab-on-a-chip devices, efficient light-absorbing surfaces and advanced optical filters, while additionally affording a niche platform to explore the fundamental science of plasmon excitations and their interactions. In this Review, we provide a research status update of plasmons in tapered grooves, starting with a presentation of the theory and important features of GSPs and CPPs, and follow with an overview of the broad range of applications they enable or improve. We cover the techniques that can fabricate tapered groove structures, in particular highlighting wafer-scale production methods, and outline the various photon- and electron-based approaches that can be used to launch and study GSPs and CPPs. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges that remain for further developing plasmonic tapered-groove devices, and consider the future directions offered by this select yet potentially far-reaching topic area.
We provide a review of plasmons in tapered grooves, covering the fundamental physics, applications, synthesis, and operation methods.
Although most studies of the effects of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves on Earth's outer radiation belt have focused on events in the afternoon sector in the outer plasmasphere or plume ...region, strong magnetospheric compressions provide an additional stimulus for EMIC wave generation across a large range of local times and L shells. We present here observations of the effects of a wave event on 23 February 2014 that extended over 8 h in UT and over 12 h in local time, stimulated by a gradual 4 h rise and subsequent sharp increases in solar wind pressure. Large‐amplitude linearly polarized hydrogen band EMIC waves (up to 25 nT p‐p) appeared for over 4 h at both Van Allen Probes, from late morning through local noon, when these spacecraft were outside the plasmapause, with densities ~5–20 cm−3. Waves were also observed by ground‐based induction magnetometers in Antarctica (near dawn), Finland (near local noon), Russia (in the afternoon), and in Canada (from dusk to midnight). Ten passes of NOAA‐POES and METOP satellites near the northern foot point of the Van Allen Probes observed 30–80 keV subauroral proton precipitation, often over extended L shell ranges; other passes identified a narrow L shell region of precipitation over Canada. Observations of relativistic electrons by the Van Allen Probes showed that the fluxes of more field‐aligned and more energetic radiation belt electrons were reduced in response to both the emission over Canada and the more spatially extended emission associated with the compression, confirming the effectiveness of EMIC‐induced loss processes for this event.
Key Points
Compression‐induced EMIC waves were observed across 12 h of local time
EMIC‐triggered emissions appeared during the strongest compression
Intense EMIC waves outside the plasmasphere depleted the radiation belts
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Recent evidence suggests that the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) may exceed previous estimates with potential implications for estimating clinical and cost-efficacy.
To ...estimate the protection and duration of protection provided by BCG vaccination against tuberculosis, explore how this protection changes with time since vaccination, and examine the reasons behind the variation in protection and the rate of waning of protection.
Electronic databases including MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Cochrane Databases, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Web of Knowledge, Biosciences Information Service (BIOSIS), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACs), MEDCARIB Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched from inception to May 2009. Index to Theses, System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe (SIGLE), Centre for Agricultural Bioscience International (CABI) Abstracts, Scopus, Article First, Academic Complete, Africa-Wide Information, Google Scholar, Global Health, British National Bibliography for Report Literature, and clinical trial registration websites were searched from inception to October 2009.
Electronic databases searches, screening of identified studies, data extraction and analysis were undertaken. Meta-analysis was used to present numerical and graphical summaries of clinical efficacy and efficacy by time since vaccination. Evidence of heterogeneity was assessed using the tau-squared statistic. Meta-regression allowed the investigation of observed heterogeneity. Factors investigated included BCG strain, latitude, stringency of pre-BCG vaccination tuberculin testing, age at vaccination, site of disease, study design and vulnerability to biases. Rate of waning of protection was estimated using the ratio of the measure of efficacy after 10 years compared with the efficacy in the first 10 years of a study.
Study selection. A total of 21,030 references were identified, providing data on 132 studies after abstract and full-text review. Efficacy. Protection against pulmonary tuberculosis in adults is variable, ranging from substantial protection in the UK MRC trial {rate ratio 0.22 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16 to 0.31}, to absence of clinically important benefit, as in the large Chingleput trial rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.25) and greater in latitudes further away from the equator. BCG vaccination efficacy was usually high, and varied little by form of disease (with higher protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis) or study design when BCG vaccination was given only to infants or to children after strict screening for tuberculin sensitivity. High levels of protection against death were observed from both trials and observational studies. The observed protective effect of BCG vaccination did not differ by the strain of BCG vaccine used in trials.
Reviewed studies showed that BCG vaccination protects against pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis for up to 10 years. Most studies either did not follow up participants for long enough or had very few cases after 15 years. This should not be taken to indicate an absence of effect: five studies (one trial and four observational studies) provided evidence of measurable protection at least 15 years after vaccination. Efficacy declined with time. The rate of decline was variable, with faster decline in latitudes further from the equator and in situations where BCG vaccination was given to tuberculin-sensitive participants after stringent tuberculin testing.
The main limitation of this review relates to quality of included trials, most of which were conducted before current standards for reporting were formulated. In addition, data were lacking in some areas and the review had to rely on evidence from observational studies.
BCG vaccination protection against tuberculosis varies between populations, to an extent that cannot be attributed to chance alone. Failure to exclude those already sensitised to mycobacteria and study latitude closer to the equator were associated with lower efficacy. These factors explained most of the observed variation. There is good evidence that BCG vaccination protection declines with time and that protection can last for up to 10 years. Data on protection beyond 15 years are limited; however, a small number of trials and observational studies suggest that BCG vaccination may protect for longer. Further studies are required to investigate the duration of protection by BCG vaccination.
The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.
The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. ...This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a ‘‘best estimate’’ of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.
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ABSTRACT
Scaling laws of dust, H i gas, and metal mass with stellar mass, specific star formation rate, and metallicity are crucial to our understanding of the build-up of galaxies through their ...enrichment with metals and dust. In this work, we analyse how the dust and metal content varies with specific gas mass (MH i/M⋆) across a diverse sample of 423 nearby galaxies. The observed trends are interpreted with a set of Dust and Element evolUtion modelS (DEUS) – including stellar dust production, grain growth, and dust destruction – within a Bayesian framework to enable a rigorous search of the multidimensional parameter space. We find that these scaling laws for galaxies with −1.0 ≲ log MH i/M⋆ ≲ 0 can be reproduced using closed-box models with high fractions (37–89 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) of supernova dust surviving a reverse shock, relatively low grain growth efficiencies (ϵ = 30–40), and long dust lifetimes (1–2 Gyr). The models have present-day dust masses with similar contributions from stellar sources (50–80 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) and grain growth (20–50 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$). Over the entire lifetime of these galaxies, the contribution from stardust (>90 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) outweighs the fraction of dust grown in the interstellar medium (<10 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$). Our results provide an alternative for the chemical evolution models that require extremely low supernova dust production efficiencies and short grain growth time-scales to reproduce local scaling laws, and could help solving the conundrum on whether or not grains can grow efficiently in the interstellar medium.
Disappearing Arctic Lakes Smith, L. C; Sheng, Y; MacDonald, G. M ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
06/2005, Volume:
308, Issue:
5727
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Historical archived satellite images were compared with contemporary satellite data to track ongoing changes in more than 10,000 large lakes in rapidly warming Siberia. A widespread decline in lake ...abundance and area has occurred since 1973, despite slight precipitation increases to the region. The spatial pattern of lake disappearance suggests (i) that thaw and "breaching" of permafrost is driving the observed losses, by enabling rapid lake draining into the subsurface; and (ii) a conceptual model in which high-latitude warming of permafrost triggers an initial but transitory phase of lake and wetland expansion, followed by their widespread disappearance.
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Summary Background Tuberculosis incidence in the UK has risen in the past decade. Disease control depends on epidemiological data, which can be difficult to obtain. Whole-genome sequencing can detect ...microevolution within Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. We aimed to estimate the genetic diversity of related M tuberculosis strains in the UK Midlands and to investigate how this measurement might be used to investigate community outbreaks. Methods In a retrospective observational study, we used Illumina technology to sequence M tuberculosis genomes from an archive of frozen cultures. We characterised isolates into four groups: cross-sectional, longitudinal, household, and community. We measured pairwise nucleotide differences within hosts and between hosts in household outbreaks and estimated the rate of change in DNA sequences. We used the findings to interpret network diagrams constructed from 11 community clusters derived from mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit–variable-number tandem-repeat data. Findings We sequenced 390 separate isolates from 254 patients, including representatives from all five major lineages of M tuberculosis . The estimated rate of change in DNA sequences was 0·5 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per genome per year (95% CI 0·3–0·7) in longitudinal isolates from 30 individuals and 25 families. Divergence is rarely higher than five SNPs in 3 years. 109 (96%) of 114 paired isolates from individuals and households differed by five or fewer SNPs. More than five SNPs separated isolates from none of 69 epidemiologically linked patients, two (15%) of 13 possibly linked patients, and 13 (17%) of 75 epidemiologically unlinked patients (three-way comparison exact p<0·0001). Genetic trees and clinical and epidemiological data suggest that super-spreaders were present in two community clusters. Interpretation Whole-genome sequencing can delineate outbreaks of tuberculosis and allows inference about direction of transmission between cases. The technique could identify super-spreaders and predict the existence of undiagnosed cases, potentially leading to early treatment of infectious patients and their contacts. Funding Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and the Health Protection Agency.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Abstract
We present the Herschel Bright Sources (HerBS) sample, a sample of bright, high-redshift Herschel sources detected in the 616.4 deg2Herschel Astrophysical Terahertz Large Area Survey. The ...HerBS sample contains 209 galaxies, selected with a 500 μm flux density greater than 80 mJy and an estimated redshift greater than 2. The sample consists of a combination of hyperluminous infrared galaxies and lensed ultraluminous infrared galaxies during the epoch of peak cosmic star formation. In this paper, we present Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array 2 (SCUBA-2) observations at 850 μm of 189 galaxies of the HerBS sample, 152 of these sources were detected. We fit a spectral template to the Herschel-Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) and 850 μm SCUBA-2 flux densities of 22 sources with spectroscopically determined redshifts, using a two-component modified blackbody spectrum as a template. We find a cold- and hot-dust temperature of $21.29_{-1.66}^{+1.35}$ and $45.80_{-3.48}^{+2.88}$ K, a cold-to-hot dust mass ratio of $26.62_{-6.74}^{+5.61}$ and a β of $1.83_{-0.28}^{+0.14}$. The poor quality of the fit suggests that the sample of galaxies is too diverse to be explained by our simple model. Comparison of our sample to a galaxy evolution model indicates that the fraction of lenses are high. Out of the 152 SCUBA-2 detected galaxies, the model predicts 128.4 ± 2.1 of those galaxies to be lensed (84.5 per cent). The SPIRE 500 μm flux suggests that out of all 209 HerBS sources, we expect 158.1 ± 1.7 lensed sources, giving a total lensing fraction of 76 per cent.
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