A review of 917 relative sea-level (RSL) data-points has resulted in the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, ...France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G (VM2) GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5kaBP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0kaBP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet.
Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25–30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
To assess the regional pattern of future low-frequency sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea, we combine the terrestrial ice melt, the glacio-isostatic and the steric sea-level components. ...The first is obtained from global scenarios for the future mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps. The second is based on modeling, using different assumptions about the Earth's rheology and the chronology of deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum. The third is obtained from published simulations based on regional atmosphere–ocean coupled models. From a minimum and a maximum scenario by 2040–2050, we find that the total, basin averaged sea-level rise will be 9.8 and 25.6cm. The terrestrial ice melt component will exceed the steric contribution, which however will show the strongest regional imprint. Glacial isostatic adjustment will have comparatively minor effects. According to our estimates, at the Mediterranean Sea tide gauges, the rate of sea-level change will increase, by 2050, by a factor of ~1–6 relative to the observed long-term rates.
•Future regional scenarios for sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Sea are obtained by 2040–2050.•The scenarios combine terrestrial ice melt, steric and GIA effects on sea-level rise.•Minimum/minimum values of basin-averaged sea-level rise are 9.8/25.6cm by 2040–2050.•Terrestrial ice melt is expected to dominate over the steric and the GIA components.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Satellite altimetry missions provide a quasi-global synoptic view of sea level variations over more than 25 years and provide regional sea level (SL) indicators such as trends and accelerations. ...Estimating realistic uncertainties on these quantities is crucial to address current climate science questions. While uncertainty estimates are available for the global mean sea level (GMSL), information is not available at local scales so far. We estimate a local satellite altimetry error budget and use it to derive local error variance-covariance matrices, and estimate confidence intervals on trends and accelerations at the 90% confidence level. Over 1993-2019, we find that the average local sea level trend uncertainty is 0.83 mm.yr
with values ranging from 0.78 to 1.22 mm.yr
. For accelerations, uncertainties range from 0.057 to 0.12 mm.yr
, with a mean value of 0.062. We also perform a sensitivity study to investigate a range of plausible error budgets. Local error levels, error variance-covariance matrices, SL trends and accelerations, along with corresponding uncertainties are provided.
Since about 20,000 years ago, the geography of the Earth has been profoundly modified by the gradual sea-level rise caused by the melting of continental ice sheets. Flat areas and regions ...characterized by very low gradients experienced, more than others, rapid flooding, with the progressive disappearance of vast coastal territories. Here we present a reconstruction of the late Quaternary coastline evolution of the north-western sector of the Sicilian Channel, constrained by high-resolution seismic profiles where the marker of the post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marine transgression has been clearly identified and mapped. The locations of the post-LGM seismic horizon have been compared with predictions of a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, which accounts for the migration of the shorelines in response to sea-level rise and for Earth's rotational and deformational effects associated with deglaciation. We have verified that most of the points mapped through seismic data interpretation fall along the palaeo-coastline that the GIA model predicts for the 21 kyrs B.P. time frame. However, the model shows a misfit in the marine sector between Mazara del Vallo and Sciacca, where the available data indicate a Quaternary tectonic uplift. The analysis of the seismic profiles provides useful constraints to current GIA models. These add on existing histories of relative sea level in the Mediterranean Sea, allowing to gain new insight into the evolution of the palaeo-geography of the region of study and of the whole Sicilian Channel since the LGM, even in areas where direct geophysical observations are not available yet. In this respect, one of the most attractive implications of the ancient coastline evolution is linked with the underwater archaeology. The sea-level rise heavily impacted the distribution of human settlements, possibly forcing site abandonment and migrations, and this is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean basin, the cradle of the western civilization. The underwater traces left by these ancient populations represent the fundamental proofs to reconstruct the early history of our precursors.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Satellite altimetry missions now provide more than 25 years of accurate, continuous and quasi-global measurements of sea level along the reference ground track of TOPEX/Poseidon. These measurements ...are used by different groups to build the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) record, an essential climate change indicator. Estimating a realistic uncertainty in the GMSL record is of crucial importance for climate studies, such as assessing precisely the current rate and acceleration of sea level, analysing the closure of the sea-level budget, understanding the causes of sea-level rise, detecting and attributing the response of sea level to anthropogenic activity, or calculating the Earth's energy imbalance. Previous authors have estimated the uncertainty in the GMSL trend over the period 1993–2014 by thoroughly analysing the error budget of the satellite altimeters and have shown that it amounts to ±0.5 mm yr−1 (90 % confidence level). In this study, we extend our previous results, providing a comprehensive description of the uncertainties in the satellite GMSL record. We analysed 25 years of satellite altimetry data and provided for the first time the error variance–covariance matrix for the GMSL record with a time resolution of 10 days. Three types of errors have been modelled (drifts, biases, noises) and combined together to derive a realistic estimate of the GMSL error variance–covariance matrix. From the latter, we derived a 90 % confidence envelope of the GMSL record on a 10 d basis. Then we used a least squared approach and the error variance–covariance matrix to assess the GMSL trend and acceleration uncertainties over any 5-year time periods and longer in between October 1992 and December 2017. Over 1993–2017, we have found a GMSL trend of 3.35±0.4 mm yr−1 within a 90 % confidence level (CL) and a GMSL acceleration of 0.12±0.07 mm yr−2 (90 % CL). This is in agreement (within error bars) with previous studies. The full GMSL error variance–covariance matrix is freely available online: https://doi.org/10.17882/58344 (Ablain et al., 2018).
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
The mid-Holocene sea-level highstand is a well-known phenomenon in sea-level science, yet the knowledge on the highstand’s spatial and temporal distribution remains incomplete. Here we study the ...southwest coast of the Arabian-Persian Gulf where a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand and subsequent sea-level fall may have occurred due to the Earth crustal response to meltwater load. Sea-level indicators were established using standard facies analysis and error calculations, then constrained through glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling and though procedures based on Gaussian Process and exponential decay analysis. This work allowed to identify the highstand at 1.6 ± 0.4 m occurring 6.7–6.0 ka, in excellent agreement with GIA model results. The subsequent shoreline migration followed the geophysical constraint by prograding in line with the sea-level fall until around 3 ka. Then, the strength of the external control weakened and internal processes, in particular sediment binding through microbial activity, started controlling the geometry of the accommodation space.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Along with density and mass variations of the oceans driven by global warming, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) in response to the last deglaciation still contributes significantly to present-day ...sea-level change. Indeed, in order to reveal the impacts of climate change, long term observations at tide gauges and recent absolute altimetry data need to be decontaminated from the effects of GIA. This is now accomplished by means of global models constrained by the observed evolution of the paleo-shorelines since the Last Glacial Maximum, which account for the complex interactions between the solid Earth, the cryosphere and the oceans. In the recent literature, past and present-day effects of GIA have been often expressed in terms of fingerprints describing the spatial variations of several geodetic quantities like crustal deformation, the harmonic components of the Earth’s gravity field, relative and absolute sea level. However, since it is driven by the delayed readjustment occurring within the viscous mantle, GIA shall taint the pattern of sea-level variability also during the forthcoming centuries. The shapes of the GIA fingerprints reflect inextricable deformational, gravitational, and rotational interactions occurring within the Earth system. Using up-to-date numerical modeling tools, our purpose is to revisit and to explore some of the physical and geometrical features of the fingerprints, their symmetries and intercorrelations, also illustrating how they stem from the fundamental equation that governs GIA, i.e., the Sea Level Equation.
The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to deglacial sea-level rise is poorly constrained. This shortfall gives rise to concerns because incorrect AIS estimates impact significantly on our ...ability to predict sea-level change in the course of global warming. Given the scarcity of geological data and the complexity of the Antarctic response to glacio-isostatic adjustment processes, there is a need for accurate data to constrain the timing of the ice-sheet retreat. Here, we provide such data on the Holocene Antarctic melting through an isolated geographic site on the northern hemisphere, which we show is sensitive to the Antarctic signal. Using both our site, and other mid-latitudinal relative sea-level sites, our model provides a consensus estimate that the AIS released water corresponding to 5 m equivalent sea level at 8 ka and ceased melting at 6 ka. This is different to most AIS models, which release an equal amount of water at 11 ka or after 6 ka. Our findings change model assumptions about the terminal AIS melting and show that future Holocene sea-level research should focus on broad shelves and large coast embayments in the mid latitudes.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the ...cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the “sea-level equation” (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of “fingerprints”. Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the “GIA corrections” in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate ...models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is compared to observational estimates for the period 1900–2015. Observed and simulated individual contributions to GMSL change (thermal expansion, glacier mass change, ice sheet mass change, landwater storage change) are analyzed and compared to observed GMSL change over the period 1900–2007 using tide gauge reconstructions, and over the period 1993–2015 using satellite altimetry estimates. The model-simulated contributions explain 50% ± 30% (uncertainties 1.65σ unless indicated otherwise) of the mean observed change from 1901–20 to 1988–2007. Based on attributable biases between observations and models, a number of corrections are proposed, which result in an improved explanation of 75% ± 38% of the observed change. For the satellite era (from 1993–97 to 2011–15) an improved budget closure of 102% ± 33% is found (105% ± 35% when including the proposed bias corrections). Simulated decadal trends increase over the twentieth century, both in the thermal expansion and the combined mass contributions (glaciers, ice sheets, and landwater storage). The mass components explain the majority of sea level rise over the twentieth century, but the thermal expansion has increasingly contributed to sea level rise, starting from 1910 onward and in 2015 accounting for 46% of the total simulated sea level change.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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