Based on research showing that in the case of a strong aerosol forcing, this forcing establishes itself early in the historical record, a simple model is constructed to explore the implications of a ...strongly negative aerosol forcing on the early (pre-1950) part of the instrumental record. This model, which contains terms representing both aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, well represents the known time history of aerosol radiative forcing as well as the effect of the natural state on the strength of aerosol forcing. Model parameters, randomly drawn to represent uncertainty in understanding, demonstrate that a forcing more negative than −1.0 W m−2is implausible, as it implies that none of the approximately 0.3-K temperature rise between 1850 and 1950 can be attributed to Northern Hemisphere forcing. The individual terms of the model are interpreted in light of comprehensive modeling, constraints from observations, and physical understanding to provide further support for the less negative (−1.0 W m−2) lower bound. These findings suggest that aerosol radiative forcing is less negative and more certain than is commonly believed.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Given the slow unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth’s climate, many are understandably distraught by failures of public policy to rise to the magnitude of the challenge. Few in ...the science community would think to question the scientific response to the unfolding changes. However, is the science community continuing to do its part to the best of its ability? In the domains where we can have the greatest influence, is the scientific community articulating a vision commensurate with the challenges posed by climate change? We think not.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
What Are Climate Models Missing? Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
05/2013, Volume:
340, Issue:
6136
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Fifty years ago, Joseph Smagorinsky published a landmark paper (1) describing numerical experiments using the primitive equations (a set of fluid equations that describe global atmospheric flows). In ...so doing, he introduced what later became known as a General Circulation Model (GCM). GCMs have come to provide a compelling framework for coupling the atmospheric circulation to a great variety of processes. Although early GCMs could only consider a small subset of these processes, it was widely appreciated that a more comprehensive treatment was necessary to adequately represent the drivers of the circulation. But how comprehensive this treatment must be was unclear and, as Smagorinsky realized (2), could only be determined through numerical experimentation. These types of experiments have since shown that an adequate description of basic processes like cloud formation, moist convection, and mixing is what climate models miss most.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
It is thought that changes in the concentration of cloud-active aerosol can alter the precipitation efficiency of clouds, thereby changing cloud amount and, hence, the radiative forcing of the ...climate system. Despite decades of research, it has proved frustratingly difficult to establish climatically meaningful relationships among the aerosol, clouds and precipitation. As a result, the climatic effect of the aerosol remains controversial. We propose that the difficulty in untangling relationships among the aerosol, clouds and precipitation reflects the inadequacy of existing tools and methodologies and a failure to account for processes that buffer cloud and precipitation responses to aerosol perturbations.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Trade‐wind clouds exhibit a large diversity of spatial organizations at the mesoscale. Over the tropical western Atlantic, a recent study has visually identified four prominent mesoscale patterns of ...shallow convection, referred to as flowers, fish, gravel, and sugar. We show that these four patterns can be identified objectively from satellite observations by analyzing the spatial distribution of infrared brightness temperatures. By applying this analysis to 19 years of data, we examine relationships between cloud patterns and large‐scale environmental conditions. This investigation reveals that on daily and interannual timescales, the near‐surface wind speed and the strength of the lower‐tropospheric stability discriminate the occurrence of the different organization patterns. These results, combined with the tight relationship between cloud patterns, low‐level cloud amount, and cloud‐radiative effects, suggest that the mesoscale organization of shallow clouds might change under global warming. The role of shallow convective organization in determining low‐cloud feedback should thus be investigated.
Plain Language Summary
Satellite imagery shows that clouds in the trade‐wind regions exhibit a large diversity of patterns. Over the tropical Atlantic close to Barbados, the population of low‐level clouds can organize in different ways, adopting patterns evocatively referred to as “flowers“,“fish” ,“gravel,” and “sugar.” This study shows that these different patterns, originally identified subjectively, can be recognized more objectively from space measurements of infrared radiation. It also shows that the relative occurrence of these different patterns relates to the strength of the trade winds near the ocean surface and to the stability of the lower atmosphere. Finally, it shows that each pattern is associated with a different cloud amount and thus impacts the radiative cooling of the Earth differently. These results suggest that under global warming, the change in environmental conditions might perturb the frequency of different patterns, which might affect the Earth's radiative response to warming in a way that has not been previously considered.
Key Points
Prominent mesoscale patterns of shallow convection are identified from satellite observations
Mesoscale patterns exhibit strong relationships with surface wind speed and lower‐tropospheric stability
Owing to their differences in low‐cloud fraction, mesoscale patterns exert different impacts on the top‐of‐atmosphere radiation budget
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
A Perspective on the Future of CMIP Stevens, Bjorn
AGU advances,
February 2024, 2024-02-00, 20240201, 2024-02-01, Volume:
5, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has demonstrated the importance of climate modeling for climate research and its usefulness for climate services. The latter has increased CMIP's ...operational burden, so much so that serving IPCC has become its animating force. Attempting to satisfy an operational mandate through a coordinated research project diminishes both the service and the research. Regaining the initiative will require CMIP to transition the quasi‐operational system it has developed to an operational setting. Doing so would allow CMIP to focus on developing an international scientific agenda to encourage and exploit advances in climate modeling.
Key Points
Continuing to develop the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) as a quasi‐operational system disguised as a research activity, serves neither science nor society
The system of climate information provision being sustained by CMIP needs to be operationalized as a service
Freeing CMIP from its operational burden will allow it to focus on the pressing need to strengthen climate science
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
A prototype problem of a nonprecipitating convective layer growing into a layer of uniform stratification and exponentially decreasing humidity is introduced to study the mechanism by which the ...cumulus-topped boundary layer grows. The problem naturally admits the surface buoyancy flux, outer layer stratification, and moisture scale as governing parameters. Large-eddy simulations show that many of the well-known properties of the cumulus-topped boundary layer (including a well-mixed subcloud layer, a cloud-base transition layer, a conditionally unstable cloud layer, and an inversion layer) emerge naturally in the simulations. The simulations also quantify the differences between nonprecipitating moist convection and its dry counterpart. Whereas dry penetrative convective layers grow proportionally to the square root of time (diffusively) the cumulus layers grow proportionally to time (ballistically). The associated downward transport of warm, dry air results in a significant decrease in the surface Bowen ratio. The linear-in-time growth of the cloud layer is shown to result from the transport and subsequent evaporation of liquid water into the inversion layer. This process acts as a sink of buoyancy, which acts to imbue the free troposphere with the properties of the cloud layer. A simple model, based on this mechanism, and formulated in terms of an effective dry buoyancy flux (which is constrained by the subcloud layer’s similarity to a dry convective layer), is shown to provide good predictions of the growth of the layer across a wide range of governing parameters.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Machine learning approaches are increasingly used to extract patterns and insights from the ever-increasing stream of geospatial data, but current approaches may not be optimal when system behaviour ...is dominated by spatial or temporal context. Here, rather than amending classical machine learning, we argue that these contextual cues should be used as part of deep learning (an approach that is able to extract spatio-temporal features automatically) to gain further process understanding of Earth system science problems, improving the predictive ability of seasonal forecasting and modelling of long-range spatial connections across multiple timescales, for example. The next step will be a hybrid modelling approach, coupling physical process models with the versatility of data-driven machine learning.
We investigate the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent warming hiatus. We confirm from five different global data sets ...that the global‐mean surface temperature trend in the period 1998–2012 is strongly influenced by a pronounced Eurasian winter cooling trend. To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20‐member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large‐scale circulation in the past decades. The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998–2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability and constitutes an extreme climate event. However, the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice enhances the variability of Eurasian winter climate and thus increases the probability of an extreme Eurasian winter cooling trend.
Key Points
The recent warming hiatus is strongly influenced by a pronounced Eurasian winter cooling trend
The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998–2012 arises from internal variability
The dramatic change in Arctic sea ice enhances the Eurasian winter climate variability
Full text
Available for:
FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to explore the role of various processes in regulating the stratocumulus to cumulus transition (SCT). Simulations are based on a composite case derived ...from a Lagrangian analysis of 2 yr of data from the northeastern Pacific. The simulations reproduce well the observed transition from a compact stratocumulus layer to more broken fields of cumulus, simply as a response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the transition. In so doing they support earlier theoretical work that argued that the SCT was a response of boundary layer circulations to increased forcing by surface latent heat fluxes. Although the basic features of the SCT imposed by the increase in SST are robust, a variety of other factors affect the detailed character of the SCT. For example, enhanced precipitation or increased downwelling longwave radiative fluxes can accelerate the reduction in cloud cover that accompanies the SCT, while a gradual decrease in the large-scale divergence can make changes in cloud cover that accompany the SCT relatively more modest. The simulations also demonstrate that the pace of the SCT is mainly set by the strength of the temperature inversion capping the initial stratocumulus-topped boundary layer.
Full text
Available for:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
PDF
