We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and ...practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity.
Our 14th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation.A panel of 30 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 102 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation.The top 36 issues were discussed in person and online in September 2022 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria.Our 15 issues cover impacts from DNA-enabled biobatteries to submerged artificial light fisheries.Other emerging issues include increased demand for chitosan, accelerating upper ocean currents, and microbiome stewardship.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a ...systematic literature review and meta‐analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Coral reefs are in severe decline. Infections by the human pathogen Serratia marcescens have contributed to precipitous losses in the common Caribbean elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata, culminating in ...its listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. During a 2003 outbreak of this coral disease, called acroporid serratiosis (APS), a unique strain of the pathogen, Serratia marcescens strain PDR60, was identified from diseased A. palmata, human wastewater, the non-host coral Siderastrea siderea and the corallivorous snail Coralliophila abbreviata. In order to examine humans as a source and other marine invertebrates as vectors and/or reservoirs of the APS pathogen, challenge experiments were conducted with A. palmata maintained in closed aquaria to determine infectivity of strain PDR60 from reef and wastewater sources. Strain PDR60 from wastewater and diseased A. palmata caused disease signs in elkhorn coral in as little as four and five days, respectively, demonstrating that wastewater is a definitive source of APS and identifying human strain PDR60 as a coral pathogen through fulfillment of Koch's postulates. A. palmata inoculated with strain PDR60 from C. abbreviata showed limited virulence, with one of three inoculated fragments developing APS signs within 13 days. Strain PDR60 from non-host coral S. siderea showed a delayed pathogenic effect, with disease signs developing within an average of 20 days. These results suggest that C. abbreviata and non-host corals may function as reservoirs or vectors of the APS pathogen. Our results provide the first example of a marine "reverse zoonosis" involving the transmission of a human pathogen (S. marcescens) to a marine invertebrate (A. palmata). These findings underscore the interaction between public health practices and environmental health indices such as coral reef survival.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists ...and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our ...diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities.
This is the ninth such annual horizon scan.
Twenty-four experts in conservation research and practice, ecology, economics, policy, and science communication identified 15 topics following a wide consultation. They followed a Delphi like process to score and identify the most important.
The issues highlighted span a wide range of fields and include thiamine deficiency in wild animals, the geographic expansion of chronic wasting disease, genetic control of invasive mammal populations and the effect of culturomics on conservation science, policy and action.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential ...effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.
This is the eighth such annual horizon scan.
An international team with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy identified 15 issues, following widespread consultation and a Delphi-like scoring process to identify the most important.
The issues were wide ranging, and include sand extraction, blockchain technology, use of robotics to combat invasive species, and new developments in energy storage and fuel production.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Vaccines that target
gametocytes have the potential to reduce malaria transmission and are thus attractive targets for malaria control. However, very little is known about human immune responses to ...gametocytes present in human hosts. We evaluated naturally-acquired antibodies to gametocyte-infected erythrocytes (gametocyte-IEs) of different developmental stages compared to other asexual parasite stages among naturally-exposed Kenyan residents. We found that acquired antibodies strongly recognized the surface of mature asexual-IEs, but there was limited reactivity to the surface of gametocyte-IEs of different stages. We used genetically-modified
with suppressed expression of PfEMP1, the major surface antigen of asexual-stage IEs, to demonstrate that PfEMP1 is a dominant target of antibodies to asexual-IEs, in contrast to gametocyte-IEs. Antibody reactivity to gametocyte-IEs was similar to asexual-IEs lacking PfEMP1. Significant antibody reactivity to the surface of gametocytes was observed when outside of the host erythrocyte, including recognition of the major gametocyte antigen, Pfs230. This indicates that there is a deficiency of acquired antibodies to gametocyte-IEs despite the acquisition of antibodies to gametocyte antigens and asexual IEs. Our findings suggest that the acquisition of substantial immunity to the surface of gametocyte-IEs is limited, which may facilitate immune evasion to enable malaria transmission even in the face of substantial host immunity to malaria. Further studies are needed to understand the basis for the limited acquisition of antibodies to gametocytes and whether vaccine strategies can generate substantial immunity.
Abstract The Differential Speckle Survey Instrument (DSSI) was relocated to the Astrophysical Research Consortium 3.5 m telescope at Apache Point Observatory (APO) in early 2022. Here we present ...results from the first year of observations along with an updated instrument description for DSSI at APO, including a detailed description of a new internal slit mask assembly used to measure the instrument plate scale from first principles. Astrometric precision for DSSI at APO during this time was measured to be 2.06 ± 0.11 mas, with a photometric precision of 0.14 ± 0.04 mag. Results of 40 resolved binary systems are reported, including two that were previously unknown to be binaries: HIP 7535 and HIP 9603. We also present updated orbital fits for two systems: HIP 93903 and HIP 100714. Finally, we report updated or confirmed dispositions for five Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) that were previously explored in Colton et al., using speckle imaging to discern common proper motions pairs from line of sight companions: KOI-270, KOI-959, KOI-1613, KOI-1962, and KOI-3214AB.
Mosquito-borne Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) causes acute, often severe, disease in livestock and humans. To determine the exposure factors and range of symptoms associated with human RVF, we ...performed a population-based cross-sectional survey in six villages across a 40 km transect in northeastern Kenya.
A systematic survey of the total populations of six Northeastern Kenyan villages was performed. Among 1082 residents tested via anti-RVFV IgG ELISA, seroprevalence was 15% (CI95%, 13-17%). Prevalence did not vary significantly among villages. Subject age was a significant factor, with 31% (154/498) of adults seropositive vs. only 2% of children ≤15 years (12/583). Seroprevalence was higher among men (18%) than women (13%). Factors associated with seropositivity included a history of animal exposure, non-focal fever symptoms, symptoms related to meningoencephalitis, and eye symptoms. Using cluster analysis in RVFV positive participants, a more severe symptom phenotype was empirically defined as having somatic symptoms of acute fever plus eye symptoms, and possibly one or more meningoencephalitic or hemorrhagic symptoms. Associated with this more severe disease phenotype were older age, village, recent illness, and loss of a family member during the last outbreak. In multivariate analysis, sheltering livestock (aOR = 3.5 CI95% 0.93-13.61, P = 0.065), disposing of livestock abortus (aOR = 4.11, CI95% 0.63-26.79, P = 0.14), and village location (P = 0.009) were independently associated with the severe disease phenotype.
Our results demonstrate that a significant proportion of the population in northeastern Kenya has been infected with RVFV. Village and certain animal husbandry activities were associated with more severe disease. Older age, male gender, herder occupation, killing and butchering livestock, and poor visual acuity were useful markers for increased RVFV infection. Formal vision testing may therefore prove to be a helpful, low-technology tool for RVF screening during epidemics in high-risk rural settings.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These ...changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics.
We present 15 issues that emerged from our 11th annual horizon scan of global biological conservation.Issues were identified by a diverse group of scientists and practitioners.The group scored the long-list of 89 issues using a Delphi-like process. Issues were ranked according to novelty, relevance, and potential impact on biological conservation.The top-38 ranked issues were debated at a workshop in Cambridge, UK, with each topic scored immediately following the discussion.Emerging themes include changes in national legislation that could affect international agreements; recognising ecocide as an international crime; and the global decline in kelp forests.Other issues include the increasing use of traditional Asian medicine; the spread of the Asian long-horned tick; use of artificial wombs in mammalian conservation; and the impact that the shrinking ozone hole may have on Antarctic sea ice.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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