•Simple framework for CB-analysis of “leaning against the wind” (LAW).•For typical empirical benchmark numbers cost of LAW exceeds benefit by large margin.•To overturn result, estimates need to be ...5–40 standard errors larger than typical ones.•Ineffective macroprudential policy increases cost more than benefit.
An obvious cost of “leaning against the wind” is a weaker economy if no (financial) crisis occurs. Possible benefits are lower probabilities and smaller magnitudes of crises. A second cost—less obvious, previously overlooked, but higher—is a weaker economy if a crisis occurs. For representative estimates, costs exceed benefits by substantial margins. Overturning the result requires policy-rate effects on the probability and magnitude of crises more than 5–40 standard errors larger than representative estimates. Higher probabilities, larger magnitudes, or longer durations of crises—typical consequences of ineffective macroprudential policy—increase the margin of costs over benefits
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Managing patients with thoracoabdominal aneurysms is demanding yet fascinating, and requires a team effort. This invited talk presents lessons learned as our history with open and endovascular ...procedures evolved for 2578 descending and thoracoabdominal repairs over the past 20 years.
Beginning in 1985 with an analysis of 596 traumatic aortic ruptures and the risk of spinal cord ischemia, the evolution of research and procedures for thoracoabdominal aneurysms progressed. The focus of these studies, medication trials, and procedure adjustments was on lowering the risk of spinal cord ischemia.
Between January 2002 and December 2021, 2578 aneurysm repairs were performed. The respective mortality rates were 6.8% and 4.0% for all patients treated. The permanent spinal cord ischemia rates were 1.3% for open descending thoracic aortas and 4.9% for open thoracoabdominal aneurysms. A detailed analysis of open and thoracoabdominal repairs showed better long-term outcomes with open repairs.
Through multiple randomized trials and innovations with procedures and techniques, the risk of death and spinal cord ischemia have been reduced. Long-term survival has also been improved. The pursuit of reducing the risks of descending and ascending thoracoabdominal repairs is a fascinating endeavor that has resulted in better patient outcomes. Nevertheless, this is a journey, and there will always be more room to achieve even better results.
Background Increased life expectancy and younger patients’ desire to avoid lifelong anticoagulation requires a better understanding of bioprosthetic valve failure. This study evaluates risk factors ...associated with explantation for structural valve deterioration (SVD) in a long-term series of Carpentier-Edwards PERIMOUNT aortic valves (AV). Methods From June 1982 to January 2011, 12,569 patients underwent AV replacement with Edwards Lifesciences Carpentier-Edwards PERIMOUNT stented bovine pericardial prostheses, models 2700PM (n = 310) or 2700 (n = 12,259). Mean age was 71 ± 11 years (range, 18 to 98 years). 93% had native AV disease, 48% underwent concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting, and 26% had additional valve surgery. There were 81,706 patient-years of systematic follow-up data available for analysis. Demographics, intraoperative variables, and 27,386 echocardiographic records were used to identify risks for explant for SVD and assess longitudinal changes in transprosthesis gradients using time-varying covariable analyses. Results Three hundred fifty-four explants were performed, with 41% related to endocarditis and 44% to SVD. Actuarial estimates of explant for SVD at 10 and 20 years were 1.9% and 15% overall, respectively, and in patients younger than 60 years, 5.6% and 46%, respectively. Younger age ( p < 0.0001), lipid-lowering drugs ( p = 0.002), prosthesis–patient mismatch ( p = 0.001), and higher postoperative peak and mean AV gradients were associated with explant for SVD ( p < 0.0001). The effect of gradient on SVD was greatest in patients younger than 60 years. Conclusions Durability of the Carpentier-Edwards PERIMOUNT aortic valve is excellent even in younger patients. Explant for SVD is related to gradient at implantation, especially in younger patients. Strategies to reduce early postoperative AV gradients, such as root enlargement or more efficient prostheses, should be considered.
We performed a systematic review of the current state of the literature regarding the natural history and outcomes of bicuspid aortic valve (BAV). PubMed and the reference lists of the included ...articles were searched for relevant studies reporting on longitudinal follow-up of BAV cohorts (mean follow-up ≥2 years). Studies limited to patients undergoing surgical interventions were excluded. 13 studies (11 502 patients with 2-16 years of follow-up) met the inclusion criteria. There was a bimodal age distribution (30-40 vs ≥50 years), with a 3:1 male to female ratio. Complications included moderate to severe aortic regurgitation (prevalence 13%-30%), moderate to severe aortic stenosis (12%-37%), infective endocarditis (2%-5%) and aortic dilatation (20%-40%). Aortic dissection or rupture was rare, occurring in 38 patients (0.4%, 27/6446 in native BAV and 11/2232 in post). With current aggressive surveillance and prophylactic surgical interventions, survival in three out of four studies was similar to that of a matched general population. In this systematic review, valvular dysfunction warranting surgical intervention in patients with BAV were common, aortic dissection was rare and, with the current management approach, survival was similar to that of the general population.
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