Effect sizes are commonly interpreted using heuristics established by Cohen (e.g., small: r = .1, medium r = .3, large r = .5), despite mounting evidence that these guidelines are mis-calibrated to ...the effects typically found in psychological research. This study's aims were to 1) describe the distribution of effect sizes across multiple instruments, 2) consider factors qualifying the effect size distribution, and 3) identify examples as benchmarks for various effect sizes. For aim one, effect size distributions were illustrated from a large, diverse sample of 9/10-year-old children. This was done by conducting Pearson's correlations among 161 variables representing constructs from all questionnaires and tasks from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development Study® baseline data. To achieve aim two, factors qualifying this distribution were tested by comparing the distributions of effect size among various modifications of the aim one analyses. These modified analytic strategies included comparisons of effect size distributions for different types of variables, for analyses using statistical thresholds, and for analyses using several covariate strategies. In aim one analyses, the median in-sample effect size was .03, and values at the first and third quartiles were .01 and .07. In aim two analyses, effects were smaller for associations across instruments, content domains, and reporters, as well as when covarying for sociodemographic factors. Effect sizes were larger when thresholding for statistical significance. In analyses intended to mimic conditions used in "real-world" analysis of ABCD data, the median in-sample effect size was .05, and values at the first and third quartiles were .03 and .09. To achieve aim three, examples for varying effect sizes are reported from the ABCD dataset as benchmarks for future work in the dataset. In summary, this report finds that empirically determined effect sizes from a notably large dataset are smaller than would be expected based on existing heuristics.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Accumulating evidence from genome wide association studies (GWAS) suggests an abundance of shared genetic influences among complex human traits and disorders, such as mental disorders. Here we ...introduce a statistical tool, MiXeR, which quantifies polygenic overlap irrespective of genetic correlation, using GWAS summary statistics. MiXeR results are presented as a Venn diagram of unique and shared polygenic components across traits. At 90% of SNP-heritability explained for each phenotype, MiXeR estimates that 8.3 K variants causally influence schizophrenia and 6.4 K influence bipolar disorder. Among these variants, 6.2 K are shared between the disorders, which have a high genetic correlation. Further, MiXeR uncovers polygenic overlap between schizophrenia and educational attainment. Despite a genetic correlation close to zero, the phenotypes share 8.3 K causal variants, while 2.5 K additional variants influence only educational attainment. By considering the polygenicity, discoverability and heritability of complex phenotypes, MiXeR analysis may improve our understanding of cross-trait genetic architectures.
Paulus and Thompson acknowledge variables or constructs that are used to help explain the current state of individuals or to generate predictions need to account for a substantial proportion of the ...variance of the dependent variable or outcome measure to be clinically useful. Systems neuroscience approaches using brain imaging are beginning to show that variability in structural and functional brain imaging only accounts for a small percentage of the explained variance when considering a variety of clinical phenotypes, especially in large population-representative samples. These findings are in line with emerging results from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study focused on the association between screen media behavior and structural MRI characteristics.
Difficulties with higher-order cognitive functions in youth are a potentially important vulnerability factor for the emergence of problematic behaviors and a range of psychopathologies. This study ...examined 2013 9-10 year olds in the first data release from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development 21-site consortium study in order to identify resting state functional connectivity patterns that predict individual-differences in three domains of higher-order cognitive functions: General Ability, Speed/Flexibility, and Learning/Memory. For General Ability scores in particular, we observed consistent cross-site generalizability, with statistically significant predictions in 14 out of 15 held-out sites. These results survived several tests for robustness including replication in split-half analysis and in a low head motion subsample. We additionally found that connectivity patterns involving task control networks and default mode network were prominently implicated in predicting differences in General Ability across participants. These findings demonstrate that resting state connectivity can be leveraged to produce generalizable markers of neurocognitive functioning. Additionally, they highlight the importance of task control-default mode network interconnections as a major locus of individual differences in cognitive functioning in early adolescence.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
•Functional connectivity (FC) patterns derived from fMRI tasks outperform resting-state FC at predicting individual differences in a measure of cognitive task performance and a task-derived ...behavioral inhibition measure.•The improvement in behavioral prediction afforded by fMRI tasks over resting-state is largely associated with the FC of the task model fit.•FC of the task model fit and task design model parameters contain shared and unique behavioral prediction power.
Characterizing the optimal fMRI paradigms for detecting behaviorally relevant functional connectivity (FC) patterns is a critical step to furthering our knowledge of the neural basis of behavior. Previous studies suggested that FC patterns derived from task fMRI paradigms, which we refer to as task-based FC, are better correlated with individual differences in behavior than resting-state FC, but the consistency and generalizability of this advantage across task conditions was not fully explored. Using data from resting-state fMRI and three fMRI tasks from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study ® (ABCD), we tested whether the observed improvement in behavioral prediction power of task-based FC can be attributed to changes in brain activity induced by the task design. We decomposed the task fMRI time course of each task into the task model fit (the fitted time course of the task condition regressors from the single-subject general linear model) and the task model residuals, calculated their respective FC, and compared the behavioral prediction performance of these FC estimates to resting-state FC and the original task-based FC. The FC of the task model fit was better than the FC of the task model residual and resting-state FC at predicting a measure of general cognitive ability or two measures of performance on the fMRI tasks. The superior behavioral prediction performance of the FC of the task model fit was content-specific insofar as it was only observed for fMRI tasks that probed similar cognitive constructs to the predicted behavior of interest. To our surprise, the task model parameters, the beta estimates of the task condition regressors, were equally if not more predictive of behavioral differences than all FC measures. These results showed that the observed improvement of behavioral prediction afforded by task-based FC was largely driven by the FC patterns associated with the task design. Together with previous studies, our findings highlighted the importance of task design in eliciting behaviorally meaningful brain activation and FC patterns.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
In a survey of 1,006 community-dwelling adults ages 50 to 99, self-rated “successful aging” was surprisingly more common in the oldest respondents. Greater age was associated with worse physical and ...cognitive functioning but also with higher levels of optimism and resilience and less depression. People with the poorest physical functioning who had high degrees of resilience had self-ratings of successful aging similar to those of physically healthy people with low resilience.
ObjectiveThere is growing public health interest in understanding and promoting successful aging. While there has been some exciting empirical work on objective measures of physical health, relatively little published research combines physical, cognitive, and psychological assessments in large, randomly selected, community-based samples to assess self-rated successful aging.MethodIn the Successful AGing Evaluation (SAGE) study, the authors used a structured multicohort design to assess successful aging in 1,006 community-dwelling adults in San Diego County, ages 50–99 years, with oversampling of people over 80. A modified version of random-digit dialing was used to recruit subjects. Evaluations included a 25-minute telephone interview followed by a comprehensive mail-in survey of physical, cognitive, and psychological domains, including positive psychological traits and self-rated successful aging, scaled from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).ResultsThe mean age of the respondents was 77.3 years. Their mean self-rating of successful aging was 8.2, and older age was associated with a higher rating, despite worsening physical and cognitive functioning. The best multiple regression model achieved, using all the potential correlates, accounted for 30% of the variance in the score for self-rated successful aging and included resilience, depression, physical functioning, and age (entering the regression model in that order).ConclusionsResilience and depression had significant associations with self-rated successful aging, with effects comparable in size to that for physical health. While no causality can be inferred from cross-sectional data, increasing resilience and reducing depression might have effects on successful aging as strong as that of reducing physical disability, suggesting an important role for psychiatry in promoting successful aging.
IMPORTANCE: Diagnoses and treatment of mental disorders are hampered by the current lack of objective markers needed to provide a more precise diagnosis and treatment strategy. OBJECTIVE: To develop ...deep learning models to predict mental disorder diagnosis and severity spanning multiple diagnoses using nationwide register data, family and patient-specific diagnostic history, birth-related measurement, and genetics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study was conducted from May 1, 1981, to December 31, 2016. For the analysis, which used a Danish population-based case-cohort sample of individuals born between 1981 and 2005, genotype data and matched longitudinal health register data were taken from the longitudinal Danish population-based Integrative Psychiatric Research Consortium 2012 case-cohort study. Included were individuals with mental disorders (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD), schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SCZ), and population controls. Data were analyzed from February 1, 2021, to January 24, 2022. EXPOSURE: At least 1 hospital contact with diagnosis of ADHD, ASD, MDD, BD, or SCZ. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The predictability of (1) mental disorder diagnosis and (2) severity trajectories (measured by future outpatient hospital contacts, admissions, and suicide attempts) were investigated using both a cross-diagnostic and single-disorder setup. Predictive power was measured by AUC, accuracy, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), including an estimate of feature importance. RESULTS: A total of 63 535 individuals (mean SD age, 23 7 years; 34 944 male 55%; 28 591 female 45%) were included in the model. Based on data prior to diagnosis, the specific diagnosis was predicted in a multidiagnostic prediction model including the background population with an overall area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 and MCC of 0.28, whereas the single-disorder models gave AUCs/MCCs of 0.84/0.54 for SCZ, 0.79/0.41 for BD, 0.77/0.39 for ASD, 0.74/0.38, for ADHD, and 0.74/0.38 for MDD. The most important data sets for multidiagnostic prediction were previous mental disorders and age (11%-23% reduction in prediction accuracy when removed) followed by family diagnoses, birth-related measurements, and genetic data (3%-5% reduction in prediction accuracy when removed). Furthermore, when predicting subsequent disease trajectories of the disorder, the most severe cases were the most easily predictable, with an AUC of 0.72. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Results of this diagnostic study suggest the possibility of combining genetics and registry data to predict both mental disorder diagnosis and disorder progression in a clinically relevant, cross-diagnostic setting prior to clinical assessment.
Objective:The authors sought evidence for altered adolescent brain growth trajectory associated with moderate and heavy alcohol use in a large national, multisite, prospective study of adolescents ...before and after initiation of appreciable alcohol use.Method:This study examined 483 adolescents (ages 12–21) before initiation of drinking and 1 and 2 years later. At the 2-year assessment, 356 participants continued to meet the study’s no/low alcohol consumption entry criteria, 65 had initiated moderate drinking, and 62 had initiated heavy drinking. MRI was used to quantify regional cortical and white matter volumes. Percent change per year (slopes) in adolescents who continued to meet no/low criteria served as developmental control trajectories against which to compare those who initiated moderate or heavy drinking.Results:In no/low drinkers, gray matter volume declined throughout adolescence and slowed in many regions in later adolescence. Complementing gray matter declines, white matter regions grew at faster rates at younger ages and slowed toward young adulthood. Youths who initiated heavy drinking exhibited an accelerated frontal cortical gray matter trajectory, divergent from the norm. Although significant effects on trajectories were not observed in moderate drinkers, their intermediate position between no/low and heavy drinkers suggests a dose effect. Neither marijuana co-use nor baseline volumes contributed significantly to the alcohol effect.Conclusions:Initiation of drinking during adolescence, with or without marijuana co-use, disordered normal brain growth trajectories. Factors possibly contributing to abnormal cortical volume trajectories include peak consumption in the past year and family history of alcoholism.
•Describes the ABCD study aims and design.•Covers issues surrounding estimation of meaningful associations, including population inferences, effect sizes, and control of covariates.•Outlines best ...practices for reproducible research and reporting of results.•Provides worked examples that illustrate the main points of the paper.
The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study is the largest single-cohort prospective longitudinal study of neurodevelopment and children's health in the United States. A cohort of n = 11,880 children aged 9–10 years (and their parents/guardians) were recruited across 22 sites and are being followed with in-person visits on an annual basis for at least 10 years. The study approximates the US population on several key sociodemographic variables, including sex, race, ethnicity, household income, and parental education. Data collected include assessments of health, mental health, substance use, culture and environment and neurocognition, as well as geocoded exposures, structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and whole-genome genotyping. Here, we describe the ABCD Study aims and design, as well as issues surrounding estimation of meaningful associations using its data, including population inferences, hypothesis testing, power and precision, control of covariates, interpretation of associations, and recommended best practices for reproducible research, analytical procedures and reporting of results.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Regional brain morphology has a complex genetic architecture, consisting of many common polymorphisms with small individual effects. This has proven challenging for genome-wide association ...studies (GWAS). Due to the distributed nature of genetic signal across brain regions, multivariate analysis of regional measures may enhance discovery of genetic variants. Current multivariate approaches to GWAS are ill-suited for complex, large-scale data of this kind. Here, we introduce the Multivariate Omnibus Statistical Test (MOSTest), with an efficient computational design enabling rapid and reliable inference, and apply it to 171 regional brain morphology measures from 26,502 UK Biobank participants. At the conventional genome-wide significance threshold of α = 5 × 10
, MOSTest identifies 347 genomic loci associated with regional brain morphology, more than any previous study, improving upon the discovery of established GWAS approaches more than threefold. Our findings implicate more than 5% of all protein-coding genes and provide evidence for gene sets involved in neuron development and differentiation.
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