Management in the Year 2050 Zovko, Vatroslav
Interdisciplinary description of complex systems,
01/2018, Volume:
16, Issue:
3
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Future studies are seen as a prerequisite for the development of a sustainable and prosperous society. Many countries, institutions and corporations invest substantially in the research of the ...future. One of the possible and expected future scenarios is the rise of artificial intelligence. It is expected that between the years 2030 and 2045 artificial intelligence will significantly surpass human intelligence. The Robocup Federation, an international organization that promotes research and development in robotics, believes that around the year 2050 autonomous robots will win a soccer game against the current soccer World Cup winners. In that manner, autonomous robots will have the opportunity to take over most, if not all, repetitive jobs and routine human activities. In addition to that, humans will be aided by artificial intelligence, creating consumers with instant, perfect information about all the products and services offered on the market. On the other hand, the labour market will be threatened by the emergence of (close to) humanoid autonomous robots that will potentially make human labour force obsolete. What are the repercussions of the artificial intelligence development for the corporate business in the year 2050? This article tries to answer that question in the light of current technological trends and the future prospects based on scenario study developed by Deutsche Post. As a consequence, the term corporation is redefined in the technological, social and economic context of the year 2050.
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Throughout the history people were fascinated and curious about the future. The future was, and still is seen as a key for prosperous development in all aspects of the society. As such, new ...discipline is developed - future studies. This paper discusses the discipline of future studies and its role in the society and science. Future studies are analyzed in the context of sustainable development. It is argued that future studies and sustainable development are complementary in nature. Based on analysis of most developed countries in the world, that spend the greatest portion of their budget on research, development and science in comparison to the rest of the world, there is a conclusive link between investments in research, development and science, and the recognition of the importance of thinking about the future. Those countries started to formalize their future orientation in many respected research centres and universities through their educational programs and research. That situation poses the need for other, less well off countries, to follow up.
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This work describes key characteristics and genesis of educational system today. As it is considered that we live in information society, presented are major goals of information society education ...and the school system in general in relation to the labour market. Briefly is described the concept of singularity and how it will make a quantum leap in the history of human development. Education is briefly put in the singularity framework and the concept of future society that is more technologically advanced. This paper also discusses the chronology of future technological development until the singularity age. It is argued that once we reach the singularity age the consequence will be the shift away from economic centered education and employment and toward humanities research. Ultimately, the goal of this paper is to open up a discussion about the different possible future scenarios of education, its long term perspective and the role in society rather than making a precise forecast about the education in mid-21st century.
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Abstract Contemporary schools have not changed significantly since the 19th century. From primary level (elementary schools) to tertiary level of education(colleges and universities), the predominant ...approach to teaching is ex-cathedra teaching with assessment system based on grades. What has changed over the years are teaching and learning tools, but the methods have remained the same. In this context, information and communication technology is viewed as a tool supporting the traditional education systems. The new, hyper-digital era is based on ubiquitous computing that is radically transforming the way we live and work, and consequently, the way we teach and learn. Contemporary technologies lead to disruptive innovations in all sectors. As such, traditional education system fails to perceive the necessity to rethink the fundamental paradigms of education based on institutional framework (schools). This paper examines the evolution of education in the context of information and communication technologies and analyses the strengths and weaknesses of traditional, school-based education, as opposed to ubiquitous education based on information and communication technology, which has not been formally acknowledged within education systems, but which depends on effort invested by individuals instead. It also examines disruptive innovations in education systems that have a potential to transform formal education processes dramatically. Key words: disruptive innovation; education system; ICT.---SažetakUobičajene škole današnjice nisu se suštinski mijenjale od 19. stoljeća. Cijela vertikala školovanja, od osnovne škole do fakulteta, temelji se na ex cathedera poučavanju i na sustavu evaluacije znanja koji se temelji na ocjenama. S vremenom su se promijenili alati za poučavanje, ali su metode ostale iste. Gledano iz te perspektive, informacijske i komunikacijske tehnologije smatraju se alatima za podršku tradicionalnih metoda poučavanja. Novo, hiper digitalno doba, temelji se na sveprisutnom računalstvu koje za posljedicu ima radikalnu transformaciju našeg života, a u skladu s time i promjenu načina poučavanja i učenja. Suvremene tehnologije potiču razvoj disruptivnih inovacija u svim sektorima pa tako i u obrazovanju. Tradicionalni pristup obrazovanju onemogućava promjenu temeljne paradigme obrazovanja u okvirima institucija (školskih ustanova).Ovim se radom analizira evolucija obrazovanja u kontekstu informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija te snage i slabosti tradicionalnog obrazovanja utemeljenog na institucionalnom okviru školskih ustanova. Taj okvir uspoređuje se sa sveprisutnim obrazovanjem koje je utemeljeno na informacijskim i komunikacijskim tehnologijama, a koje nema formalno priznanje u obrazovnim sustavima, već je rezultat individualnog napora pojedinca. Također, radom se prezentiraju disruptivne inovacije koje imaju potencijal radikalne transformacije obrazovnih procesa. Ključne riječi: disruptivna inovacija; obrazovni sustav; IKT.
This study evaluates numerous epidemiological, environmental, and economic factors affecting morbidity and mortality from PM2.5 exposure in the 27 member states of the European Union. This form of ...air pollution inflicts considerable social and economic damage in addition to loss of life and well-being. This study creates and deploys a comprehensive data pipeline. The first step consists of conventional linear models and supervised machine learning alternatives. Those regression methods do more than predict health outcomes in the EU-27 and relate those predictions to independent variables. Linear regression and its machine learning equivalents also inform unsupervised machine learning methods such as clustering and manifold learning. Lower-dimension manifolds of this dataset’s feature space reveal the relationship among EU-27 countries and their success (or failure) in managing PM2.5 morbidity and mortality. Principal component analysis informs further interpretation of variables along economic and health-based lines. A nonlinear environmental Kuznets curve may describe the fuller relationship between economic activity and premature death from PM2.5 exposure. The European Union should bridge the historical, cultural, and economic gaps that impair these countries’ collective response to PM2.5 pollution.
AbstractInformation and communication technologies (ICT) are an integral part of everyday life including the teaching process. The level of teaching equipment in Croatian schools ranges from chalk ...and board to the latest smartboards and other equipment. High level of ICT is foreseen as a prerequisite for successful teaching and, as such, an integral tool of contemporary schools. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of the application of ICT tools in teaching primary school mathematics. The students' success in the mathematics exam, in the Linear function unit, was evaluated in two groups of 7th grade students of the primary school Josip Juraj Strossmayer in Zagreb, based on their test scores. The first group, 90 students, attended mathematics classes without ICT tools in teaching (school years 2008/2009 and 2009/2010). The second group, 110 students, (school years 2012/1013 and 2013/2014) attended mathematics classes with an extensive use of ICT in the teaching process. The first group of students successfully solved (48±26)% of the Linear function test, while the second group successfully solved (58±26)% of the same test. The results showed a significantly higher solving rate in the group of students who attended classes in mathematics where ICT was used in teaching (p=0.005). ICT supported mathematics classes, in the example of Linear function unit, significantly improved students' results in written exams. The results of this study support the hypothesis that using ICT in teaching leads to better learning and knowledge acquisition in primary schools. Key words: information support; mathematics; teaching; teaching process.---Sažetak Informacijsko-komunikacijske tehnologije (IKT) sastavni su dio svakodnevnice pa tako i nastavnih procesa. Razina opremljenosti u hrvatskim školama varira od krede i ploče do najsuvremenijih pametnih ploča i opreme, no može se očekivati da će uskoro visoka razina IKT postati standard u svim školama te neophodan dio nastavnih procesa. Svrha je ovog istraživanja ispitati utjecaj primjene IKT u nastavi matematike na uspješnost učenika na pismenom ispitu iz matematike, u nastavnoj cjelini Linearna funkcija. Za potrebe ovog istraživanja analizirani su rezultati pismenog ispita dvije skupine učenika 7. razreda osnovne škole Josipa Jurja Strossmayera iz Zagreba. Prva skupina sastoji se od 90 učenika u šk. god. 2008./2009. i 2009./2010. koji su pohađali nastavu matematike bez upotrebe IKT. Druga je skupina od 110 učenika u šk. god. 2012./1013. i 2013./2014., uz intenzivnu upotrebu IKT. Postotak riješenosti kod učenika prve skupine bio je (48±26) %, a kod druge je skupine bio (58±26) %. Rezultati su pokazali statistički značajno bolje rezultate testa učenika koji su pohađali nastavu matematike s intenzivnom upotrebom IKT-a u nastavi (p=0,005). Primjenom IKT-a u nastavi matematike, na primjeru nastavne cjeline Linearna funkcija, poboljšan je uspjeh učenika na pismenim ispitima, što govori u prilog boljem usvajanju nastavnih sadržaja uz primjenu nastavnih pomagala podržanih IKT-om. Ključne riječi: informacijska potpora; matematika; nastava; nastavni proces
This study evaluates numerous epidemiological, environmental, and economic factors affecting morbidity and mortality from PM
exposure in the 27 member states of the European Union. This form of air ...pollution inflicts considerable social and economic damage in addition to loss of life and well-being. This study creates and deploys a comprehensive data pipeline. The first step consists of conventional linear models and supervised machine learning alternatives. Those regression methods do more than predict health outcomes in the EU-27 and relate those predictions to independent variables. Linear regression and its machine learning equivalents also inform unsupervised machine learning methods such as clustering and manifold learning. Lower-dimension manifolds of this dataset's feature space reveal the relationship among EU-27 countries and their success (or failure) in managing PM
morbidity and mortality. Principal component analysis informs further interpretation of variables along economic and health-based lines. A nonlinear environmental Kuznets curve may describe the fuller relationship between economic activity and premature death from PM
exposure. The European Union should bridge the historical, cultural, and economic gaps that impair these countries' collective response to PM
pollution.
Public sector salary policy aims at making the salary system more transparent and keeping it at the same level in different public authorities and services. In practice, governing bodies use salary ...policy to demonstrate their priorities in managing the entire public sector. Such an approach frequently carries particular discriminatory features. The paper aims at presenting the system of determining the salaries of employees in public authorities and public services and giving an overview of the currently applicable legal framework in this regard. Considering the size of the public sector, a salary analysis was made on a sample of the salaries of university teaching personnel, doctors and judges. The criteria for selecting the jobs in question in the sample are the features common to each profession: independence in decision-making and work as set by the legal framework, a clear hierarchy of advancement in the profession, budget financed salaries and external evaluation related to potential advancement within the system. For each group of the aforesaid categories of employees, the similarities and differences in the salary determination system are shown. Accordingly, the extent to which the principle of equal pay for equal work is respected as stipulated by the provisions of the Labour Law, as well as potentially discriminatory elements in the determining salaries system within the public sector are established.
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Politika plaća u javnom sektoru ima za cilj ujednačiti plaće na razini državnih tijela i javnih službi te omogućiti da sustav plaća bude transparentan. U praksi, vladajuće strukture putem politike ...plaća pokazuju svoje prioritete u upravljanju javnim sektorom te takav pristup učestalo ima diskriminirajuće elemente. Postojećim zakonskim okvirom u javni sektor spadaju zaposleni u javnom sektoru, državna tijela te javne službe. Iako je svim zaposlenicima u javnom sektoru isti poslodavac (Republika Hrvatska) politika plaća ima jasne diskriminatorne elemente jer se ne poštuje načelo jednake plaće za jednaki rad te su evidentne velike varijacije u osnovnoj plaći na istoj razini stručne spreme s obzirom na pripadnost određenoj kategoriji javnog sektora. Rad prikazuje sustav određivanja plaća pojedinih kategorija zaposlenih u državnim tijelima i javnim službama te pregled trenutačno važećeg zakonskog okvira. S obzirom na veličinu javnog sektora napravljena je analiza plaća na uzorku plaća liječnika, sveučilišnih nastavnika i suradnika, sudaca i sudskih savjetnika. Kriterij odabira predmetnih radnih mjesta u uzorku je niz zajedničkih karakteristika: neovisnost u odlučivanju i radu koja je određena zakonskim okvirom, jasna hijerarhija napredovanja u struci, financiranje iz proračuna te vanjsko vrednovanje u sustavu napredovanja. Za svaku grupu od navedenih kategorija zaposlenih prikazuju se sličnosti i razlike u sustavu određivanja plaća. U skladu s navedenim, utvrđuje se u kojoj mjeri se poštuje načelo jednake plaće za jednak rad, a kako je to propisano Zakonom o radu (Narodne novine, broj 93/2014, 127/2017, 98/2019, 151/2022) te koji su potencijalno diskriminatorni elementi u ovakvom sustavu određivanja plaća u javnom sektoru.
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Sažetak: Politika plaća u javnom sektoru ima za cilj ujednačiti plaće na razini državnih tijela i javnih službi te omogućiti da sustav plaća bude transparentan. U praksi, vladajuće strukture putem ...politike plaća pokazuju svoje prioritete u upravljanju javnim sektorom te takav pristup učestalo ima diskriminirajuće elemente. Postojećim zakonskim okvirom u javni sektor spadaju zaposleni u javnom sektoru, državna tijela te javne službe. Iako je svim zaposlenicima u javnom sektoru isti poslodavac (Republika Hrvatska) politika plaća ima jasne diskriminatorne elemente jer se ne poštuje načelo jednake plaće za jednaki rad te su evidentne velike varijacije u osnovnoj plaći na istoj razini stručne spreme s obzirom na pripadnost odredenoj kategoriji javnog sektora.
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