Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human ...settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.
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Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed ...two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.
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DOBA, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Some 10 to 30% of Americans who’ve been infected with SARS-CoV-2 are still having debilitating symptoms months later, a trend that suggests that “long Covid” is our next public health disaster in the ...making. What form will this disaster take, and what can we do about it?
Highlights • Anxiety is associated with attentional bias for threatening stimuli. • Anxiety-related attentional bias for threat helps to explain ‘stiffening’ behaviors. • ‘Stiffening’ behaviors will ...only help to prevent falls during simple postural tasks. • Anxiety will compromise attentional resources required for complex locomotor tasks. • Stiffening behavior could be driven by an internal focus of attention/reinvestment.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Grant D. Stentiford, Kallaya Sritunyalucksana, Timothy W. Flegel, Bryony A. P. Williams, Boonsirm Withyachumnarnkul, Orn Itsathitphaisarn, David Bass Affiliations Pathology and Molecular Systematics ...Team, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Weymouth, United Kingdom, Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, United KingdomCitation: Stentiford GD, Sritunyalucksana K, Flegel TW, Williams BAP, Withyachumnarnkul B, Itsathitphaisarn O, et al. ...funding support is acknowledged from the European Commission (EC) and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) under contracts C6928 and FB002 (to GDS and DB); from the Royal Society under a University Research Fellowship (to BAPW); and to the Agricultural Research Development Agency (ARDA) and National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT) (to KS, TWF, and OI).
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Compound extremes such as cooccurring soil drought (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) can be disastrous for natural and societal systems. Soil drought and ...atmospheric aridity are 2 main physiological stressors driving widespread vegetation mortality and reduced terrestrial carbon uptake. Here, we empirically demonstrate that strong negative coupling between soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit occurs globally, indicating high probability of cooccurring soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Using the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we further show that concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity are greatly exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks. The feedback of soil drought on the atmosphere is largely responsible for enabling atmospheric aridity extremes. In addition, the soil moisture–precipitation feedback acts to amplify precipitation and soil moisture deficits in most regions. CMIP5 models further show that the frequency of concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity enhanced by land–atmosphere feedbacks is projected to increase in the 21st century. Importantly, land–atmosphere feedbacks will greatly increase the intensity of both soil drought and atmospheric aridity beyond that expected from changes in mean climate alone.
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ABSTRACT Ground-based observatories have been collecting 0.2-20 TeV gamma-rays from blazars for about twenty years. These gamma-rays can experience absorption along the line of sight due to ...interactions with the extragalactic background light (EBL). In this paper, we show that the gamma-ray optical depth can be reduced to the convolution product of an EBL kernel with the EBL intensity, assuming a particular form for the EBL evolution. We extract the absorption signal from the most extensive set of TeV spectra from blazars collected so far and unveil a broadband EBL spectrum from mid-ultraviolet to far-infrared. This spectrum is in good agreement with the accumulated emission of galaxies, constraining unresolved populations of sources. We propose a data-driven estimate of the Hubble constant based on the comparison of local and gamma-ray measurements of the EBL. After setting stringent upper-limits on the redshift of four TeV blazars, we investigate the 106 gamma-ray spectra in our sample and find no significant evidence for anomalies. The intrinsic TeV spectra are not harder than their GeV counterpart, and no spectral upturn is visible at the highest optical depths. Finally, we investigate a modification of the pair-creation threshold due to Lorentz invariance violation. A mild excess prevents us from ruling out an effect at the Planck energy, and we constrain for the first time the energy scale of the modification to values larger than 60% of the Planck energy.
Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land‐cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in ...fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme Fire Weather Index days emerge for 22% of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the midtwenty‐first century, emergence among the different Fire Weather Index metrics occurs for 33–62% of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3 °C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human‐caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.
Plain Language Summary
Observed increases in the frequency and severity of fire weather have been observed across portions of the globe over the past half century. We used climate models to identify where and when anthropogenic climate change causes fire weather conditions to exceed that of natural variability. Modeling results show that emergence for some fire weather indices is already under way for a sizable portion of the globe, including much of southern Europe and the Amazon, and with an expansion of this area with continued warming over the twenty‐first century. These findings suggest substantial increases in fire potential in regions where vegetation abundance and ignitions are not limiting, highlighting the urgency to adapt to changes in fire disturbances and hazards.
Key Points
Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enhance fire weather across most burnable global land surfaces during the twenty‐first century
Emergence of fire weather conditions from natural variability is modeled to occur in the first half of the twenty‐first century in many regions
Extent of fire‐weather emergence is twice as large when global temperature surpasses 3 °C, compared to 2 °C, above preindustrial levels
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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•Conventional pretreatment methods of lignocellulose suffer significant disadvantages.•Non-thermal food processing technologies investigated as emerging pretreatments.•Emerging ...technologies are promising candidates as sustainable green pretreatments.•Comparative and feasibility studies are required for the emerging pretreatments.
Pretreatment of lignocellulosic biomass to overcome its intrinsic recalcitrant nature prior to the production of valuable chemicals has been studied for nearly 200 years. Research has targeted eco-friendly, economical and time-effective solutions, together with a simplified large-scale operational approach. Commonly used pretreatment methods, such as chemical, physico-chemical and biological techniques are still insufficient to meet optimal industrial production requirements in a sustainable way. Recently, advances in applied chemistry approaches conducted under extreme and non-classical conditions has led to possible commercial solutions in the marketplace (e.g. High hydrostatic pressure, High pressure homogenizer, Microwave, Ultrasound technologies). These new industrial technologies are promising candidates as sustainable green pretreatment solutions for lignocellulosic biomass utilization in a large scale biorefinery. This article reviews the application of selected emerging technologies such as ionizing and non-ionizing radiation, pulsed electrical field, ultrasound and high pressure as promising technologies in the valorization of lignocellulosic biomass.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Earth's forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to ...global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality-from published, field-documented mortality events-required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global "hotter-drought fingerprint" from these tree-mortality sites-effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality-across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.
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