The provision of ecosystem services (ESs) such as carbon sequestration and grain provision are critical components to sustainable development. Reaching carbon neutrality generally requires the ...growing carbon sequestration of forest land, and feeding a growing population needs an expansion of cultivated land. However, limited land resources may lead to a contradiction between the carbon sequestration and grain provision. China has proposed long-term and large-scale land use programs, and exploring whether these land use policies are effective for ES sustainable provision would be instructive for future policy implications. This study integrated multi-source data in the socioecological dimension to determine the extent by which land use and land use change influence the supply-demand mismatches of carbon (carbon sequestration and emission) and grain (grain provision and consumption) in China at the provincial level. The result showed that the total quantity of carbon emissions surpassed carbon sequestration and the grain provision could cover the consumption from 2000 to 2015. Spatially, southeastern coastal provinces had higher grain deficits and northeast provinces had higher carbon deficits. This study further detected the influencing factors of the mismatches between the supply and demand of the two ESs. Excluding land use factors, our results showed that social factors contributed 38% and 47% to the supply-demand mismatches of carbon and grain, respectively, and natural factors contributed 39% and 15%, respectively. During 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015, cropland changes significantly affected grain balance, while forest land changes did not significantly affect carbon balance. These results indicated that cropland protections are vital to food safety, and carbon emission reductions should be the focus for carbon balance. Finally, this study makes policy suggestions for land use and ecosystem management, and a future research framework was proposed to help mitigate ES supply-demand imbalance.
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•Social factors contributed 38%–47% to the supply-demand mismatches of the two ESs.•Land use change significantly affected the food fulfillment but not carbon balance.•The cropland protection was vital to meet the demand of grain supply in China.•Carbon emission reduction should be paid more attention for carbon balance.•A future framework for studying the ES supply and demand was established.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Survival data including potentially cured subjects are common in clinical studies and mixture cure rate models are often used for analysis. The non-cured probabilities are often predicted by ...non-parametric, high-dimensional, or even unstructured (e.g. image) predictors, which is a challenging task for traditional nonparametric methods such as spline and local kernel. We propose to use the neural network to model the nonparametric or unstructured predictors’ effect in cure rate models and retain the proportional hazards structure due to its explanatory ability. We estimate the parameters by Expectation–Maximization algorithm. Estimators are showed to be consistent. Simulation studies show good performance in both prediction and estimation. Finally, we analyze Open Access Series of Imaging Studies data to illustrate the practical use of our methods.
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CEKLJ, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
The Yangzi River has been seriously affected by intensive anthropogenic activities in recent years. In this study, the levels and distribution, risk assessment, and source apportionment of heavy ...metals in sediments were investigated in the Yangtze River (Anqing section). The heavy metal concentration and chemical characteristics (Cu/Pb/Zn/Cd/Cr/As/Hg) of 16 samples over four sections were measured using Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry and Graphite Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. The metal concentration in the study area showed variance in different sampling sites. The mean heavy metal content was also higher than the background value. Vertical analysis of metal concentration showed the decreasing order from surface sediment. The analysis of Hakanson’s potential risk assessment indicated that the total potential ecological risk of these elements amounted to a considerable pollution level in the study area. The result of geo-accumulation index indicated that the risk of the studied metals had the following decreasing order: Cd > Hg > Pb > Cu > Zn > As > Cr. Based on the result of enrichment factor and principal component analysis, Cr, As, Hg, and partly Zn, Cu, and Cd mostly originated from natural sources. Pb and partly Cu and Zn mostly originated from gas companies, industries, and traffic sources, whereas Cd and partly Zn represented agricultural activities, such as fertilizer and pesticide consumption.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
•The spatial flow was included in assessing the sub-basin importance for water supply.•The beneficial population was based on the direction and path of spatial flow.•The importance index was proposed ...to explore the contribution of sub-basins.•Considering the service delivery, the upstream sub-basin maybe not most important.•The importance ranking provided information for ecological compensation.
Water provision service is crucial for human society to survive and develop. It is essential to evaluate the importance of sub-watersheds, based on their different capacities to provide water resources to manage an entire watershed. Previous studies have assessed the importance of the sub-watershed by analyzing its supply and/or demand of water provision service. However, few studies have considered the influence of the spatial flow. In this study, we proposed an assessment framework that combined supply, demand, and spatial flow of water provision service. The Qiantang River Basin in China was selected as our study area. The importance of the sub-watershed was evaluated using the importance index, which was calculated using the spatial flow and the accumulative beneficial population of the water provision service. The spatial flow was simulated using a simplified water flow model, and the accumulative beneficial population was based on the direction and path of water provision service spatial flow. The results indicated that 60% of sub-watersheds with “very high” importance were located in the middle and lower reaches of Xin'an River and Lan River. Due to the internal consumption and sink of the water provision service, the upstream area may provide less spatial flow and may have a lower level of importance. When limited by the direction and scope of water provision service delivery, some sub-watersheds with high surpluses and without external beneficiaries were of low importance. Our study emphasizes the quantity and routing of water provision service delivery and enhances the understanding of the capacity of the sub-watershed for providing water provision service.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Many clinical studies collect longitudinal and survival data concurrently. Joint models combining these two types of outcomes through shared random effects are frequently used in practical data ...analysis. The standard joint models assume that the coefficients for the longitudinal and survival components are time-invariant. In many applications, the assumption is overly restrictive. In this research, we extend the standard joint model to include time-varying coefficients, in both longitudinal and survival components, and we present a data-driven method for variable selection. Specifically, we use a B-spline decomposition and penalized likelihood with adaptive group LASSO to select the relevant independent variables and to distinguish the time-varying and time-invariant effects for the two model components. We use Gaussian-Legendre and Gaussian-Hermite quadratures to approximate the integrals in the absence of closed-form solutions. Simulation studies show good selection and estimation performance. Finally, we use the proposed procedure to analyze data generated by a study of primary biliary cirrhosis.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Understanding the environmental risks of soil heavy metals (HMs) and identifying their main sources are the essential prerequisites for the prevention and management of soil pollution. Based on a ...detailed survey of soil HMs (Cu, Cr, Ni, Zn, Pb, Cd, As and Hg) from different land use types (including agricultural land, construction land, wetland, and forest land) in an estuary alluvial island, the environmental risk and source apportionment of soil HMs were investigated. Altogether, 117 soil samples were taken in the study area to appraise the soil HMs environmental risk by using the geo-accumulation index (Igeo), potential ecological risk index (RI), and human health risk assessment (HRA) and to identify its main sources by using positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. The average concentrations of soil HMs (except As) surpassed their reference background values in China. There were no significant differenced in the mean concentrations of HMs in different land use types, except that the Hg concentration in the construction land was significantly higher than that in others. The results of Igeo showed that Cd pollution was unpolluted to moderately polluted, and that the others were unpolluted. The potential ecological risk level for Cd and Hg was “moderated potential risk”, while for Cu, Cr, Ni, Zn, Pb and As was “low potential risk”. Higher contamination was distributed at the west-central area. The results of the HRA indicated that the non-carcinogenic risk and the carcinogenic risk that human beings suffered from HMs in different land uses were insignificant. To more accurately identify the sources of soil HMs, the PMF model coupled with the GIS-spatial analysis was applied. The results showed that agricultural activities, natural source, industrial discharge and river transportation, and atmosphere deposition were the main determining factors for the accumulation of soil HMs in the study area, with the contribution rate of 24.25%, 23.79%, 23.84%, and 28.12%, respectively. The study provides an underlying insight needed to control of the soil HM pollutions for an estuary alluvial island.
Urbanization intensity (UI) affects habitat quality (HQ) by changing land patterns, nutrient conditions, management, etc. Therefore, there is a need for studies on the relationship between UI and HQ ...and quantification of separate urbanization impacts on HQ. In this study, the relationship between HQ and UI and the direct and indirect impacts of urbanization on HQ were analyzed for the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) from 1995 to 2010. The results indicated that the regional relationship between HQ and UI was nonlinear and negative, with inflection points where urbanization reached 20% and 80%. Furthermore, depending on different urbanization impacts, the relationship types generally changed from a steady decrease to stable in different cities. Negative indirect impacts accelerate habitat degradation, while positive impacts partially offset habitat degradation caused by land conversion. The average offset extent was approximately 28.23%, 17.41%, 22.94%, and 16.18% in 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively. Moreover, the dependency of urbanization impacts on human demand in different urbanization stages was also demonstrated. The increasing demand for urban land has exacerbated the threat to ecological areas, but awareness about the need to protect ecological conditions began to strengthen after the antagonistic stage of urbanization.
In order to improve the glucose utilization capacity of largemouth bass (
Micropterus salmoides
), responses to glucose overload between two strains (Y: breeding strain; W: wild strain) were compared ...at 0, 6, 12, and 24 h after glucose injection (1.67 g/kg). The data revealed that plasma glucose in the Y strain (<12 h) recovered faster than in the W strain (12 h), with the Y strain secreted more insulin within 6 h post-injection. Triglyceride (TG) and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (VLDL-CH) content in the Y strain increased, peaking at 12 h, then decreased, whereas the W strain’s TG content was not affected and VLDL-CH content decreased. The hepatic and muscular fatty acid synthetase, liver x receptor-1, and sterol regulatory element-binding protein expressions were consistent with the TG content change. Both strains’ liver and muscle glycogen contents exhibited similar trends to that of the glycogen synthase gene—increasing, then declining, and peaking at 6 and 12 h. The expression levels of hepatic and muscular phosphofructokinase and pyruvate kinase in the Y strain increased, peaking at 12 h. In the W strain, they were suppressed and reached the minimum at 24 h. The mRNA levels of hepatic and muscular phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase and glucose-6-phosphatase were enhanced and peaked at 24 h in both strains, hepatic isocitrate dehydrogenase-1, and α-ketoglutarate dehydrogenase complex expression increased after declining, peaking at 12 and 24 h. Two genes in the W strain’s muscles showed a similar trend. Both strains’ transcriptome results identified seven common functional genes for resistance to hyperglycemia that were involved in the circadian rhythm pathway, which is a suggested key pathway for coping with hyperglycemia. Furthermore, 48 differential genes were identified between the two strains, and these genes were enriched in the TGF-beta and cell cycle signaling pathways, indicating that these pathways may be key factors affecting the differential responses to glucose overload. We conducted a comprehensive comparison of glucose overload molecular responses between two strains of
M. salmoides
, and the results can provide a promising strategy to improve the glucose utilization capacity of
M. salmoides
based on advantageous pre-existing traits.
Accurately predicting patient survival is essential for cancer treatment decision. However, the prognostic prediction model based on histopathological images of stomach cancer patients is still yet ...to be developed. We propose a deep learning‐based model (MultiDeepCox‐SC) that predicts overall survival in patients with stomach cancer by integrating histopathological images, clinical data, and gene expression data. The MultiDeepCox‐SC not only automatedly selects patches with more information for survival prediction, without manual labeling for histopathological images, but also identifies genetic and clinical risk factors associated with survival in stomach cancer. The prognostic accuracy of the MultiDeepCox‐SC (C‐index = 0.744) surpasses the result only based on histopathological image (C‐index = 0.660). The risk score of our model was still an independent predictor of survival outcome after adjustment for potential confounders, including pathologic stage, grade, age, race, and gender on The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset (hazard ratio 1.555, p = 3.53e‐08) and the external test set (hazard ratio 2.912, p = 9.42e‐4). Our fully automated online prognostic tool based on histopathological images, clinical data, and gene expression data could be utilized to improve pathologists' efficiency and accuracy (https://yu.life.sjtu.edu.cn/DeepCoxSC).
We propose a deep learning‐based model (MultiDeepCox‐SC) that predicts overall survival in patients with stomach cancer by integrating histopathological images, clinical data, and gene expression data. Our fully automated online prognostic tool could be utilized to improve pathologists' efficiency and accuracy (https://yu.life.sjtu.edu.cn/DeepCoxSC).
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
•Platform PM concentrations were higher than those inside trains and in ambient air.•Higher PM concentrations at subway platforms resulted from piston wind.•PM concentrations differed between ...locations on the subway platform.•PM concentrations inside the train increased after the doors opened.•PM1.0 and PM2.5 were significantly correlated in the Shanghai subway system.
More than 9million passengers take Shanghai’s subway system every work day. The system’s air quality has caused widespread concern because of the potential harm to passengers’ health. We measured the particulate matter (PM) concentrations at three kinds of typical underground platform (side-type, island-type, and stacked-type platforms) and inside the trains in Shanghai’s metro during 7days of measurements in April and July 2015. Our results demonstrated that the patterns of air quality variation and PM concentrations were similar at the side-type and island-type platforms. We also found that the PM concentrations were higher on the platforms than inside the train and that the PM concentrations in the subway system were positively correlated with those in the ambient air. Piston wind generated by vehicle motion pushes air from the tunnel to the platform, so platform PM concentrations increase when trains approach the platform. However, the piston wind effect varies greatly between locations on the platform. In general, the effect of the piston wind is weaker at the middle of the platform than at both ends. PM concentrations inside the train increase after the doors open, during which time dirty platform air floods into the compartments. PM1.0 and PM2.5 were significantly correlated both inside the train and on the platforms. PM1.0 accounted for 71.9% of PM2.5 inside the train, which is higher than the corresponding platform values. Based on these results, we propose some practical suggestions to minimize air pollution damage to passengers and staff from the subway system.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
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