Evidence from two El Nino episodes in the American Southwest suggests that El Nino-driven precipitation, the initial catalyst of a trophic cascade that results in a delayed density-dependent rodent ...response, is sufficient to predict heightened risk for human contraction of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.
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Statistical models for estimating absolute densities of field populations of animals have been widely used over the last century in both scientific studies and wildlife management programs. To date, ...two general classes of density estimation models have been developed: models that use data sets from capture-recapture or removal sampling techniques (often derived from trapping grids) from which separate estimates of population size$(\hat N) and effective sampling area (\hat A) are used to calculate density (\hat D=\hat N/\hat A);$and models applicable to sampling regimes using distance-sampling theory (typically transect lines or trapping webs) to estimate detection functions and densities directly from the distance data. However, few studies have evaluated these respective models for accuracy, precision, and bias on known field populations, and no studies have been conducted that compare the two approaches under controlled field conditions. In this study, we evaluated both classes of density estimators on known densities of enclosed rodent populations. Test data sets (n = 11) were developed using nine rodent species from capture-recapture live-trapping on both trapping grids and trapping webs in four replicate 4.2-ha enclosures on the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico, USA. Additional "saturation" trapping efforts resulted in an enumeration of the rodent populations in each enclosure, allowing the computation of true densities.$Density estimates (\hat D) were calculated using program CAPTURE$for the grid data sets and program DISTANCE for the web data sets, and these results were compared to the known true densities (D) to evaluate each model's relative mean square error, accuracy, precision, and bias. In addition, we evaluated a variety of approaches to each data set's analysis by having a group of independent expert analysts calculate their best density estimates without a priori knowledge of the true densities; this "blind" test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models$M_b and M_{bh} in program CAPTURE (with \hat A) adjusted by species-specific $full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values).$These models produced accurate \hat D values $(with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses$comparing each model's \hat D values to the true D values$over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition,$the grid-based \hat D analyses using full MMDM values for \hat W area adjustments$required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research studies involving small-mammal abundances.
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Traveling waves are analyzed in a model of the hantavirus infection in deer mice. The existence of two kinds of wave phenomena is predicted. An environmental parameter governs a transition between ...two regimes of propagation. In one of them the front of infection lags behind at a constant rate. In the other, fronts of susceptible and infected mice travel at the same speed, separated by a constant delay. The dependence of the delay on system parameters is analyzed numerically and through a piecewise linearization.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
The relationship between the risk of hantaviral pulmonary syndrome (HPS), as estimated from satellite imagery, and local rodent populations was examined. HPS risk, predicted before rodent sampling, ...was highly associated with the abundance of Peromyscus maniculatus, the reservoir of Sin Nombre virus (SNV). P. maniculatus were common in high-risk sites, and populations in high-risk areas were skewed toward adult males, the subclass most frequently infected with SNV. In the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), captures of P. maniculatus increased only in high-risk areas. During 1998, few sites had infected mice, but by 1999, 18/20 of the high-risk sites contained infected mice and the crude prevalence was 30.8%. Only 1/18 of the low-risk sites contained infected rodents, and the prevalence of infection was lower (8.3%). Satellite imagery identified environmental features associated with SNV transmission within its reservoir population, but at least 2 years of high-risk conditions were needed for SNV to reach high prevalence. Areas with persistently high-risk environmental conditions may serve as refugia for the survival of SNV in local mouse populations.
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Phylogeographic relationships were evaluated at the intraspecific level using nucleotide sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene of representative specimens of 'colilargo' ...(Oligoryzomys longicaudatus) from 31 localities, along its distributional range over a large part of the western Andes and southern Argentina. Based on approximately 1,000 base pairs (bp), we recognized a single species on both the Chilean and the Argentinean side as far as at least latitude 51 degree S, rejecting the subspecific distinctiveness of longicaudatus and philippi. We thus placed the latter in full synonymy with O. longicaudatus as earlier studies proposed, and enlarged its range as far as Torres del Paine, about 51 degree S. The occurrence of subspecies in this range is doubtful given the low sequence divergence values and the absence of significant associations between haplotypes and their geography. Additionally, we hypothesized that the entrance of this species into the Chilean side of the Andes mountains occurred through the Patagonian forests of southern Argentina, with further dispersal to the north from the south.
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Simple random walk considerations are used to interpret rodent population data collected in Hantavirus-related investigations in Panama regarding the short-tailed cane mouse,
Zygodontomys brevicauda. ...The diffusion constant of mice is evaluated to be of the order of (and larger than) 200 meters squared per day. The investigation also shows that the rodent mean square displacement saturates in time, indicating the existence of a spatial scale which could, in principle, be the home range of the rodents. This home range is concluded to be of the order of 70 meters. Theoretical analysis is provided for interpreting animal movement data in terms of an interplay of the home ranges, the diffusion constant, and the size of the grid used to monitor the movement. The study gives impetus to a substantial modification of existing theory of the spread of the Hantavirus epidemic which has been based on simple diffusive motion of the rodents, and additionally emphasizes the importance for developing more accurate techniques for the measurement of rodent movement.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Cases of human hantavirus disease have been reported in Chile since 1995, most of them in people living in rural and periurban areas. We conducted a peridomestic study of small mammals to evaluate ...the relationships between the presence of rodents with antibodies to Andes virus confirmed human cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in southcentral Chile. The results of 20 sampled sites, which involved the capture of 272 mice over an 18-month period, showed the occurrence of 10 small mammal species, of which Oligoryzomys longicaudatus was the only seropositive species for hantavirus, with an intra-specific serologic rate of 10.4%.
Hantaviruses are rodent-borne zoonotic agents that cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North and South America. The epidemiology ...of human diseases caused by these viruses is tied to the ecology of the rodent hosts, and effective control and prevention relies on a through understanding of host ecology. After the 1993 HPS outbreak in the southwestern United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention initiated long-term studies of the temporal dynamics of hantavirus infection in host populations. These studies, which used mark-recapture techniques on 24 trapping webs at nine sites in the southwestern United States, were designed to monitor changes in reservoir population densities and in the prevalence and incidence of infection; quantify environmental factors associated with these changes; and when linked to surveillance databases for HPS, lead to predictive models of human risk to be used in the design and implementation of control and prevention measures for human hantavirus disease.
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Field mice of the genus Calomys are small, mostly granivorous rodents common to several habitats in South America. To date, phylogenies for the genus have been proposed on the basis of morphological, ...chromosomal, and biochemical data, often with contradictory results due to incomplete species sampling or methodological shortcomings. In this paper, we propose relationships among 10 species of Calomys based on the complete cytochrome b gene sequence. Our analyses show that Calomys is constituted by two major clades, one mostly associated with mountain habitats with subsequent invasions to lowland habitats and another with species restricted to lowland habitats both north and south of the Amazon basin. The evolution of the genus was likely accompanied by a reduction of chromosome diploid numbers that occurred independently in each of the two evolutionary lineages. A “clock” calibrated on the split between Auliscomys and Loxodontomys suggests that the almost nonexistent fossil record for the genus greatly underestimates divergence times among its species.
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