The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbons
. The atmospheric concentration of ...trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second-most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s
. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, suggests that global emissions have increased
. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source are unknown
. Here, using high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, we investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We show that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 (±1 standard deviation) gigagrams per year higher in 2014-2017 than in 2008-2012, and that the increase in emissions arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (at least 40 to 60 per cent) of the global rise in CFC-11 emissions. We find no evidence for a significant increase in CFC-11 emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where there are available data for the detection of regional emissions. The attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Several considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely to be the result of new production and use, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global chlorofluorocarbon production by 2010.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
The New Horizons spacecraft's encounter with the cold classical Kuiper Belt object (486958) Arrokoth (provisional designation 2014 MU
) revealed a contact-binary planetesimal. We investigated how ...Arrokoth formed and found that it is the product of a gentle, low-speed merger in the early Solar System. Its two lenticular lobes suggest low-velocity accumulation of numerous smaller planetesimals within a gravitationally collapsing cloud of solid particles. The geometric alignment of the lobes indicates that they were a co-orbiting binary that experienced angular momentum loss and subsequent merger, possibly because of dynamical friction and collisions within the cloud or later gas drag. Arrokoth's contact-binary shape was preserved by the benign dynamical and collisional environment of the cold classical Kuiper Belt and therefore informs the accretion processes that operated in the early Solar System.
This paper describes the science motivation, measurement objectives, performance requirements, detailed design, approach and implementation, and calibration of the four Hot Plasma Composition ...Analyzers (HPCA) for the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. The HPCA is based entirely on electrostatic optics combining an electrostatic energy analyzer with a carbon-foil based time-of-flight analyzer. In order to fulfill mission requirements, the HPCA incorporates three unique technologies that give it very wide dynamic range capabilities essential to measuring minor ion species in the presence of extremely high proton fluxes found in the region of magnetopause reconnection. Dynamic range is controlled primarily by a novel radio frequency system analogous to an RF mass spectrometer. The RF, in combination with capabilities for high TOF event processing rates and high current micro-channel plates, ensures the dynamic range and sensitivity needed for accurate measurements of ion fluxes between ∼1 eV and 40 keV that are expected in the region of reconnection events. A third technology enhances mass resolution in the presence of high proton flux.
In order to calibrate the four HPCA instruments we have developed a unique ion calibration system. The system delivers a multi-species beam resolved to
M
/Δ
M
∼100 and current densities between 0.05 and 200 pA/cm
2
with a stability of ±5 %. The entire system is controlled by a dedicated computer synchronized with the HPCA ground support equipment. This approach results not only in accurate calibration but also in a comprehensive set of coordinated instrument and auxiliary data that makes analysis straightforward and ensures archival of all relevant data.
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DOBA, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Multiple sclerosis (MS) can be divided into four phenotypes based on clinical evolution. The pathophysiological boundaries of these phenotypes are unclear, limiting treatment stratification. Machine ...learning can identify groups with similar features using multidimensional data. Here, to classify MS subtypes based on pathological features, we apply unsupervised machine learning to brain MRI scans acquired in previously published studies. We use a training dataset from 6322 MS patients to define MRI-based subtypes and an independent cohort of 3068 patients for validation. Based on the earliest abnormalities, we define MS subtypes as cortex-led, normal-appearing white matter-led, and lesion-led. People with the lesion-led subtype have the highest risk of confirmed disability progression (CDP) and the highest relapse rate. People with the lesion-led MS subtype show positive treatment response in selected clinical trials. Our findings suggest that MRI-based subtypes predict MS disability progression and response to treatment and may be used to define groups of patients in interventional trials.
Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHFFormula: see text), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 ...(CHClFFormula: see text). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 Formula: see text). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg Formula: see text-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.
The New Horizons spacecraft flew past the Kuiper Belt object (486958) Arrokoth (also known as 2014 MU69) in January 2019. Because of the great distance to the outer Solar System and limited ...bandwidth, it will take until late 2020 to downlink all the spacecraft's observations back to Earth. Three papers in this issue analyze recently downlinked data, including the highest-resolution images taken during the encounter (see the Perspective by Jewitt). Spencer et al. examined Arrokoth's geology and geophysics using stereo imaging, dated the surface using impact craters, and produced a geomorphological map. Grundy et al. investigated the composition of the surface using color imaging and spectroscopic data and assessed Arrokoth's thermal emission using microwave radiometry. McKinnon et al. used simulations to determine how Arrokoth formed: Two gravitationally bound objects gently spiraled together during the formation of the Solar System. Together, these papers determine the age, composition, and formation process of the most pristine object yet visited by a spacecraft.
The first searches for axions and axionlike particles with the Large Underground Xenon experiment are presented. Under the assumption of an axioelectric interaction in xenon, the coupling constant ...between axions and electrons g_{Ae} is tested using data collected in 2013 with an exposure totaling 95 live days ×118 kg. A double-sided, profile likelihood ratio statistic test excludes g_{Ae} larger than 3.5×10^{-12} (90% C.L.) for solar axions. Assuming the Dine-Fischler-Srednicki-Zhitnitsky theoretical description, the upper limit in coupling corresponds to an upper limit on axion mass of 0.12 eV/c^{2}, while for the Kim-Shifman-Vainshtein-Zhakharov description masses above 36.6 eV/c^{2} are excluded. For galactic axionlike particles, values of g_{Ae} larger than 4.2×10^{-13} are excluded for particle masses in the range 1-16 keV/c^{2}. These are the most stringent constraints to date for these interactions.
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CMK, CTK, FMFMET, IJS, NUK, PNG, UM
We present an apparatus for detection of cyclotron radiation yielding a frequency-based β± kinetic energy determination in the 5 keV to 2.1 MeV range, characteristic of nuclear β decays. The ...cyclotron frequency of the radiating β particles in a magnetic field is used to determine the β energy precisely. Our work establishes the foundation to apply the cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy (CRES) technique, developed by the Project 8 Collaboration, far beyond the 18-keV tritium endpoint region. We report initial measurements of β–’s from 6He and β+’s from 19Ne decays to demonstrate the broadband response of our detection system and assess potential systematic uncertainties for β spectroscopy over the full (MeV) energy range. To our knowledge, this is the first direct observation of cyclotron radiation from individual highly relativistic β’s in a waveguide. Furthermore, this work establishes the application of CRES to a variety of nuclei, opening its reach to searches for new physics beyond the TeV scale via precision β-decay measurements.
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CMK, CTK, FMFMET, IJS, NUK, PNG, UM
We present methane (CH4) emissions for East Asia from a Bayesian inversion of CH4 mole fraction and stable isotope (δ13C‐CH4) measurements. Emissions were estimated at monthly resolution from 2000 to ...2011. A posteriori, the total emission for East Asia increased from 43 ± 4 to 59 ± 4 Tg yr−1 between 2000 and 2011, owing largely to the increase in emissions from China, from 39 ± 4 to 54 ± 4 Tg yr−1, while emissions in other East Asian countries remained relatively stable. For China, South Korea, and Japan, the total emissions were smaller than the prior estimates (i.e., Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.2 FT2010 for anthropogenic emissions) by an average of 29%, 20%, and 23%, respectively. For Mongolia, Taiwan, and North Korea, the total emission was less than 2 Tg yr−1 and was not significantly different from the prior. The largest reductions in emissions, compared to the prior, occurred in summer in regions important for rice agriculture suggesting that this source is overestimated in the prior. Furthermore, an analysis of the isotope data suggests that the prior underestimates emissions from landfills and ruminant animals for winter 2010 to spring 2011 (no data available for other times). The inversion also found a lower average emission trend for China, 1.2 Tg yr−1 compared to 2.8 Tg yr−1 in the prior. This trend was not constant, however, and increased significantly after 2005, up to 2.0 Tg yr−1. Overall, the changes in emissions from China explain up to 40% of the increase in global emissions in the 2000s.
Key Points
Bayesian inversion estimates of methane emissions in East Asia
Methane emissions from China increased by 3% annually from 2000 to 2011
China contributes significantly to the increase in global methane emissions
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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