Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate ...feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause ...rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO₂ and CH₄ . Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO₂ of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH₄ to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH₄/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon-climate modeling efforts.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Permafrost landscapes in northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are an important, poorly known, component of the global carbon cycle. However, in light of future Arctic ...warming, the sustainability of these carbon pools is uncertain. To a large part, this is due to a limited understanding of the carbon cycle processes because of sparse observations in Arctic permafrost ecosystems. Here we present an eddy covariance data set covering more than 3 years of continuous CO2 and CH4 flux observations within a moist tussock tundra ecosystem near Chersky in north‐eastern Siberia. Through parallel observations of a disturbed (drained) area and a control area nearby, we aim to evaluate the long‐term effects of a persistently lowered water table on the net vertical carbon exchange budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. Persistently drier soils trigger systematic shifts in the tundra ecosystem carbon cycle patterns. Both, uptake rates of CO2 and emissions of CH4 decreased. Year‐round measurements emphasize the importance of the non‐growing season—in particular the “zero‐curtain” period in the fall—to the annual budget. Approximately 60% of the CO2 uptake in the growing season is lost during the cold seasons, while CH4 emissions during the non‐growing season account for 30% of the annual budget. Year‐to‐year variability in temperature conditions during the late growing season was identified as the primary control of the interannual variability observed in the CO2 and CH4 fluxes.
Key Points
Systematic shifts in tundra ecosystem carbon cycle patterns triggered by drained soils with decreased CO2 uptake and CH4 emissions
Year‐round measurements emphasize the importance of the non‐growing season—in particular the freeze‐in period—to the annual budget
Temperature variability during the late growing season was identified as the primary control of the interannual flux variability
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
We determine the annual timing of spring recovery from spaceborne microwave radiometer observations across northern hemisphere boreal evergreen forests for 1979–2014. We find a trend of advanced ...spring recovery of carbon uptake for this period, with a total average shift of 8.1 d (2.3 d/decade). We use this trend to estimate the corresponding changes in gross primary production (GPP) by applying in situ carbon flux observations. Micrometeorological CO₂ measurements at four sites in northern Europe and North America indicate that such an advance in spring recovery would have increased the January–June GPP sum by 29 g·C·m−2 8.4 g·C·m−2 (3.7%)/decade. We find this sensitivity of the measured springtime GPP to the spring recovery to be in accordance with the corresponding sensitivity derived from simulations with a land ecosystem model coupled to a global circulation model. The model-predicted increase in springtime cumulative GPP was 0.035 Pg/decade 15.5 g·C·m−2 (6.8%)/decade for Eurasian forests and 0.017 Pg/decade for forests in North America 9.8 g·C·m−2 (4.4%)/decade. This change in the springtime sum of GPP related to the timing of spring snowmelt is quantified here for boreal evergreen forests.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
The MEthane Remote sensing Lidar missioN (MERLIN) aims at demonstrating the spaceborne active measurement of atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas, based on an Integrated Path Differential ...Absorption (IPDA) nadir-viewing LIght Detecting and Ranging (Lidar) instrument. MERLIN is a joint French and German space mission, with a launch currently scheduled for the timeframe 2021/22. The German Space Agency (DLR) is responsible for the payload, while the platform (MYRIADE Evolutions product line) is developed by the French Space Agency (CNES). The main scientific objective of MERLIN is the delivery of weighted atmospheric columns of methane dry-air mole fractions for all latitudes throughout the year with systematic errors small enough (<3.7 ppb) to significantly improve our knowledge of methane sources from global to regional scales, with emphasis on poorly accessible regions in the tropics and at high latitudes. This paper presents the MERLIN objectives, describes the methodology and the main characteristics of the payload and of the platform, and proposes a first assessment of the error budget and its translation into expected uncertainty reduction of methane surface emissions.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
As surface temperatures are expected to rise in the future, ice‐rich permafrost may thaw, altering soil topography and hydrology and creating a mosaic of wet and dry soil surfaces in the Arctic. ...Arctic wetlands are large sources of CH4, and investigating effects of soil hydrology on CH4 fluxes is of great importance for predicting ecosystem feedback in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate how a decade‐long drying manipulation on an Arctic floodplain influences CH4‐associated microorganisms, soil thermal regimes, and plant communities. Moreover, we examine how these drainage‐induced changes may then modify CH4 fluxes in the growing and nongrowing seasons. This study shows that drainage substantially lowered the abundance of methanogens along with methanotrophic bacteria, which may have reduced CH4 cycling. Soil temperatures of the drained areas were lower in deep, anoxic soil layers (below 30 cm), but higher in oxic topsoil layers (0–15 cm) compared to the control wet areas. This pattern of soil temperatures may have reduced the rates of methanogenesis while elevating those of CH4 oxidation, thereby decreasing net CH4 fluxes. The abundance of Eriophorum angustifolium, an aerenchymatous plant species, diminished significantly in the drained areas. Due to this decrease, a higher fraction of CH4 was alternatively emitted to the atmosphere by diffusion, possibly increasing the potential for CH4 oxidation and leading to a decrease in net CH4 fluxes compared to a control site. Drainage lowered CH4 fluxes by a factor of 20 during the growing season, with postdrainage changes in microbial communities, soil temperatures, and plant communities also contributing to this reduction. In contrast, we observed CH4 emissions increased by 10% in the drained areas during the nongrowing season, although this difference was insignificant given the small magnitudes of fluxes. This study showed that long‐term drainage considerably reduced CH4 fluxes through modified ecosystem properties.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Measurements of midday vertical atmospheric CO2 distributions reveal annual-mean vertical CO2 gradients that are inconsistent with atmospheric models that estimate a large transfer of terrestrial ...carbon from tropical to northern latitudes. The three models that most closely reproduce the observed annual-mean vertical CO2 gradients estimate weaker northern uptake of -1.5 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) and weaker tropical emission of +0.1 Pg C year(-1) compared with previous consensus estimates of -2.4 and +1.8 Pg C year(-1), respectively. This suggests that northern terrestrial uptake of industrial CO2 emissions plays a smaller role than previously thought and that, after subtracting land-use emissions, tropical ecosystems may currently be strong sinks for CO2.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on ...inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE–T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.
Many terms often used to describe old-growth forests imply that these forests are less vigorous, less productive and less stable than younger forests. But research in the last two decades has yielded ...results that challenge the view of old-growth forests being in decline. Given the importance of forests in battling climate change and the fact that old-growth forests are shrinking at a rate of 0.5% per year, these new results have come not a moment too soon. This book is the first ever to focus on the ecosystem functioning of old-growth forests. It is an exhaustive compendium of information that contains original work conducted by the authors. In addition, it is truly global in scope as it studies boreal forests in Canada, temperate old-growth forests in Europe and the Americas, and global tropical forests. Written in part to affect future policy, this eminently readable book is as useful for the scientist and student as it is for the politician and politically-interested layman.
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FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
We review 15 techniques for estimating missing values of net ecosystem CO
2 exchange (NEE) in eddy covariance time series and evaluate their performance for different artificial gap scenarios based ...on a set of 10 benchmark datasets from six forested sites in Europe.
The goal of gap filling is the reproduction of the NEE time series and hence this present work focuses on estimating missing NEE values, not on editing or the removal of suspect values in these time series due to systematic errors in the measurements (e.g., nighttime flux, advection). The gap filling was examined by generating 50 secondary datasets with artificial gaps (ranging in length from single half-hours to 12 consecutive days) for each benchmark dataset and evaluating the performance with a variety of statistical metrics. The performance of the gap filling varied among sites and depended on the level of aggregation (native half-hourly time step versus daily), long gaps were more difficult to fill than short gaps, and differences among the techniques were more pronounced during the day than at night.
The non-linear regression techniques (NLRs), the look-up table (LUT), marginal distribution sampling (MDS), and the semi-parametric model (SPM) generally showed good overall performance. The artificial neural network based techniques (ANNs) were generally, if only slightly, superior to the other techniques. The simple interpolation technique of mean diurnal variation (MDV) showed a moderate but consistent performance. Several sophisticated techniques, the dual unscented Kalman filter (UKF), the multiple imputation method (MIM), the terrestrial biosphere model (BETHY), but also one of the ANNs and one of the NLRs showed high biases which resulted in a low reliability of the annual sums, indicating that additional development might be needed. An uncertainty analysis comparing the estimated random error in the 10 benchmark datasets with the artificial gap residuals suggested that the techniques are already at or very close to the noise limit of the measurements. Based on the techniques and site data examined here, the effect of gap filling on the annual sums of NEE is modest, with most techniques falling within a range of ±25
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
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