The actual preparation and adoption of the euro is, for Romania, the most important challenge of the first decade after its accession at the EU. It puts to the test the policy and administrative ...capacity to conceive and implement a coherent program of m
Aim: The aim of this paper is to outline the essential features of the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism - ERM II - including the past experience of its participants and to analyze the benefits arising from ...Poland's accession to it.Research method: To this end, the method of inductive inference based on the comparative analysis of the experience of the present members of the ERM II system was employed.Findings: Participation in the ERM II system does not obligate its participants to join the eurozone; further, it allows for sustaining a floating exchange rate and guarantees help of the European Central Bank, thus reinforcing economic stability and credibility. This, in turn, should translate into the reduction of the investor's risk premium and of the relatively high cost of capital in Poland, compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, and to facilitate access to that capital, thus having a positive impact on economic growthContribution to science: Considering the unwillingness of subsequent governments and citizens to adopt euro, this paper attempts to disseminate knowledge and reinforce the substantive arguments within this area at a time when, in spite of the crisis, the group of the EU countries outside the eurozone has been shrinking.
Cel: Celem opracowania jest przybliżenie istoty mechanizmu kursowego ERM II i doświadczeń dotychczasowych jego uczestników oraz analiza korzyści z przystąpienia Polski do niego. Układ / metody badawcze: W tym celu zastosowano metodę wnioskowania indukcyjnego opartą na analizie porównawczej doświadczeń dotychczasowych członków systemu ERM II. Wnioski / wyniki: Uczestnictwo w systemie ERM II nie zobowiązuje do wejścia do strefy euro, pozwala na zachowanie dalekiej płynności kursu walutowego i daje gwarancję pomocy Europejskiego Banku Centralnego, wzmacniającą stabilność i wiarygodności gospodarki, co powinno przełożyć się na zmniejszenie żądanej przez inwestorów premii za ryzyko i przyczynić do obniżenia względnie wysokiego kosztu kapitału w Polsce na tle państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz ułatwić dostęp do niego, oddziałując pozytywnie na wzrost gospodarczy. Oryginalność / wartość artykułu: W związku z niechęcią ze strony kolejnych rządów i obywateli do przejścia na euro opracowanie stanowi próbę upowszechnienia wiedzy i wzmocnienia merytorycznych argumentów w tym obszarze w sytuacji kurczącego się pomimo kryzysu grona państw UE pozostających poza strefą euro.
Our study evaluates the trade-off between real and nominal convergence in transition countries relating European integration (case of Romania). The potential conflict between Maastricht criteria and ...the possibility to obtain a faster real convergence with the European Union countries is explained with Ballassa-Samuelson effect. In addition, according this effect, we study the monetary policy regimes for Romanian authorities in perspective of the future admittance in Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II)
Our study evaluates the trade-off between real and nominal convergence in transition countries relating European integration (case of Romania). The potential conflict between Maastricht criteria and ...the possibility to obtain a faster real convergence with the European Union countries is explained with Ballassa-Samuelson effect. In addition, according this effect, we study the monetary policy regimes for Romanian authorities in perspective of the future admittance in Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II).
From a purely economic perspective we find more arguments in favor of early EMU membership than against, since the New Member States have largely adjusted their economic policies, and economic ...indicators converge to the EMU average. The benefits of early accession (reduction of administrative costs, serious commitment, etc.) outweigh or even reduce most of the remaining risks. The only significant risk of early EMU enlargement for confidence in the Euro would emerge from the high level of bad debts in Poland and Malta, but this could be resolved within a year if serious action would be taken.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
This paper assesses exchange rate development and volatility in six new EU member states during the period November 1996 – April 2006. The development is examined by calculating various rates of ...return and the exchange rate volatil-ity is analyzed using moving average standard deviations of the annualized daily returns of the nominal bilateral exchange rates. The three ERM II participating currencies (SIT, CYP, SKK) entered into the mechanism at the optimal time of stable exchange rate development and low volatility. However, the admissible fluctuation band ±2.25% seems to be too narrow for the remaining three currencies (CZK, HUF, PLN). Thus, these currencies should remain out of ERM II for some time.
The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has gone through different stages until arriving at the creation of the euro. Now the new ten member states of the European Union (EU) are in the process of ...trying to close policies in order to meet the macroeconomic criteria of Maastricht. An overview on exchange rate policy of those countries will be analyzed in this paper. Most of the new member states have pegged their currencies to the euro and are trying to join with it as soon as possible. Nevertheless, others are still highly linked with currencies of the international monetary system or their exchange rate policy is still far from meeting the objective of the exchange rate a short-term period of time.
This policy paper deals with the main strategic issues for monetary policy in new EU member states before their euro adoption. These are typically rooted in the challenge of fulfilling concurrently ...of the Maastricht inflation and exchange rate criteria. In this paper we first put forward that these criteria are vaguely defined and distinguish between the wording, written interpretation and ’revealed’ interpretation (by the European authorities) of these criteria. Next, the paper contain the comprehensive discussion of the strategic options for monetary policy in the period of fulfilment of these criteria in terms of (i) its transparency, (ii) its continuity with the previous monetary policy regime, (iii) the choice of central parity for the ERM II, (iv) the setting of the fluctuation bandwidth, (v) the probability of fulfilment of both criteria and (vi) the impact on the autonomy of monetary policy.
This study estimates the equilibrium real and nominal exchange rates for five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. A new approach is adopted, which combines the fundamental equilibrium ...exchange rate (FEER) with the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) methodology. In a VAR-based 3-equation cointegration system, we estimate structural equations for internal and external balances and link them to the real exchange rate. The estimated misalignment is used to derive equilibrium nominal exchange rates. The sustainability of an ERM-II-type exchange rate regime is investigated on ex post data, and the credibility problem of fixing the currencies of CEE countries vis-à-vis the single European currency is analysed.
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