The MID4 dataset, 2002–2010 Palmer, Glenn; D'Orazio, Vito; Kenwick, Michael ...
Conflict management and peace science,
04/2015, Volume:
32, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Understanding the causes of interstate conflict continues to be a primary goal of the field of international relations. To that end, scholars continue to rely on large datasets of conflict in the ...international system. This paper introduces the latest iteration in the most widely used dataset on interstate conflicts, the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) 4 data. In this paper we first outline the updated data-collection process for the MID4 data. Second, we present some minor changes and clarifications to the coding rules for the MID4 datasets, as well as pointing out how the MID coding procedures affect several notable "close call" cases. Third, we introduce updates to the existing MID datasets for the years 2002–2010 and provide descriptive statistics that allow comparisons of the newer MID data to prior versions. We also offer some best practices and point out several ways in which the new MID data can contribute to research in international conflict.
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2.
Measuring Geopolitical Risk Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo
The American economic review,
04/2022, Volume:
112, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the ...Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of geopolitical risk. Investment drops more in industries that are exposed to aggregate geopolitical risk. Higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower firm-level investment. (JEL C43, E32, F51, F52, G31, H56, N40)
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3.
THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERSTATE RESOURCE WARS Caselli, Francesco; Morelli, Massimo; Rohner, Dominic
The Quarterly journal of economics,
02/2015, Volume:
130, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We establish a theoretical and empirical framework to assess the role of resource endowments and their geographic location in interstate conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict ...is more likely when at least one country has natural resources, when the resources in the resource-endowed country are closer to the border, and, in the case where both countries have natural resources, when the resources are located asymmetrically vis-à-vis the border. We test these predictions on a novel data set featuring oilfield distances from bilateral borders. The empirical analysis shows that the presence and location of oil are significant and quantitatively important predictors of interstate conflicts after World War II.
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This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological ...innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to nonpublic conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.
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This paper investigates the impact of energy security risk (ESR) on economic stability. Using multiple global datasets, we provide empirical evidence from a panel of 68 countries spanning over a ...period from 1980 to 2021. Our results indicate that high ESR reduces GDP growth rate (GDPG) from a global perspective. In robustness tests, this effect remains valid across several specifications based on non-U.S. samples, national income-level, alternative measure of economic stability, and a set of endogeneity tests based on propensity score matching estimation. Countries with pre-existing low GDPG mainly suffer from heightened energy insecurity. Further tests reveal that numerous country-specific institutional quality estimates moderate the effect. Finally, the damaging impact of ESR worsens during years of high inflation, geopolitical risk and acts, as well as of escalated war threats. We encourage international collaborations to develop a more sustainable energy system, which enhances the security of energy supply and the stability of economy.
•We investigate the impact of energy security risk (ESR) on economic stability.•Our results reveal that ESR significantly reduces GDP growth rate (GDPG).•This negative effect is mainly attributed to countries with preexisting low GDPG.•Country-level institutional quality moderates this effect.•The damaging impact of ESR worsens during years of high inflation and war threats.
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The Russia-Ukraine War, which has lasted for over a year, has been proven to significantly impact crude oil prices. This article aims to explore the channels through which the Russia-Ukraine War ...affects crude oil prices and to assist decision-makers in channel intervention to mitigate the impact of the war. To this end, the study proposes a research method called “Compare Real Data with Predicted Data and Match Influencing Factors” (CRP-MIF). The method reveals that the Russia-Ukraine War, through its impact on speculative activities, inventory, and supply-demand balance, combined with production announcements of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led to sharp short-term fluctuations in international oil prices and rapid price increases. Among these channels, speculative activities, inventory, and supply have a substantial impact. Relevant entities can weaken the impact of the war on oil prices and macroeconomic factors by intervening in these transmission channels. This study provides a new reference paradigm for studying the impact channels of major crisis events on commodity prices.
•A CRP-MIF model to study the impact channels of major crisis events on oil prices.•Russo-Ukraine War affects speculation, amplifies fluctuations in oil prices•Russo-Ukraine War and OPEC+ production announcement jointly increases oil prices•Russia-Ukraine War intensifies low inventories, sustains upward trend in oil prices•Russia-Ukraine War has little long-term impact on oil prices
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•We explore the role and effective usage of GPR in forecasting oil volatility.•The GPRS index is constructed by filtering the GPR larger than a threshold.•The GARCH-MIDAS-GPRS model performs the ...best.•GPRS but not GPR contains useful information for forecasting oil volatility.•Both GPR and GPRS help gain higher economic returns.
Motivated by the importance of geopolitical risk and its possible predictive power for oil volatility, this paper aims to quantitatively investigate the role of geopolitical risk (GPR), especially serious geopolitical risk (GPRS), in forecasting oil volatility. For research purposes, the GARCH-MIDAS model is extended by incorporating GPR and GPRS. Then, the new extensions are examined from the perspectives of both statistical and economic significance. In-sample results show that GPR and GPRS lead to oil market fluctuations, while the out-of-sample results strongly confirm that the GARCH-MIDAS-GPRS model with serious GPR significantly outperforms the GARCH-MIDAS model. Moreover, both GPR and GPRS help gain higher economic returns. In particular, serious geopolitical risk contains useful information for the recent future oil volatility and can provide the best economic gains. Oil market investors and government policymakers should pay more attention to extreme geopolitical events and serious geopolitical risk in the context of risk management and portfolio allocation.
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The 'resource curse' hypothesis claims that abundance in natural resources, particularly oil, encourages especially civil war. Natural resources provide both motive and opportunity for conflict and ...create indirect institutional and economic causes of instability. Contrarily, the theory of the rentier state — largely neglected in the study of peace and war in this respect — suggests that regimes use revenue from abundant resources to buy off peace through patronage, large-scale distributive policies and effective repression. Consequently, such rentier states would tend to be more stable politically and less prone to conflict. These two theories thus imply ambivalent effects of resource abundance on conflict proneness. This article presents part of a solution to this apparent puzzle for the case of oil-producing countries. The key argument is that both resource wealth per capita and resource dependence need to be taken into account, since only the availability of very high per capita revenues from oil allows governments to achieve internal stability. The empirical analysis supports this hypothesis. The findings of multivariate cross-country regressions indicate a U-shaped relationship between oil dependence and civil war onset, while high resource wealth per capita tends to be associated with less violence. The results of a macro-qualitative comparison for a reduced sample of highly dependent oil exporters are even more clearcut. Using the same reduced sample, we find that oil-wealthy countries apparently manage to maintain political stability by a combination of large-scale distribution, high spending on the security apparatus and protection by outsiders. Compared to oil-poor countries and in contradiction to the rentier state theory, the institutions of oil-wealthy countries do not seem to be particularly characterized by patronage and clientelism.
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We review the main economic models of war and conflict. These models vary in details, but their implications are qualitatively consistent, highlighting key commonalities across a variety of conflict ...settings. Recent empirical literature, employing both laboratory and field data, in many cases confirms the basic implications of conflict theory. However, this literature also presents important challenges to the way economists traditionally model conflict. We finish our review by suggesting ways to address these challenges.
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