The Russia-Ukraine War, which has lasted for over a year, has been proven to significantly impact crude oil prices. This article aims to explore the channels through which the Russia-Ukraine War ...affects crude oil prices and to assist decision-makers in channel intervention to mitigate the impact of the war. To this end, the study proposes a research method called “Compare Real Data with Predicted Data and Match Influencing Factors” (CRP-MIF). The method reveals that the Russia-Ukraine War, through its impact on speculative activities, inventory, and supply-demand balance, combined with production announcements of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led to sharp short-term fluctuations in international oil prices and rapid price increases. Among these channels, speculative activities, inventory, and supply have a substantial impact. Relevant entities can weaken the impact of the war on oil prices and macroeconomic factors by intervening in these transmission channels. This study provides a new reference paradigm for studying the impact channels of major crisis events on commodity prices.
•A CRP-MIF model to study the impact channels of major crisis events on oil prices.•Russo-Ukraine War affects speculation, amplifies fluctuations in oil prices•Russo-Ukraine War and OPEC+ production announcement jointly increases oil prices•Russia-Ukraine War intensifies low inventories, sustains upward trend in oil prices•Russia-Ukraine War has little long-term impact on oil prices
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
2.
Measuring Geopolitical Risk Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo
The American economic review,
04/2022, Volume:
112, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the ...Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of geopolitical risk. Investment drops more in industries that are exposed to aggregate geopolitical risk. Higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower firm-level investment. (JEL C43, E32, F51, F52, G31, H56, N40)
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CEKLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
3.
THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERSTATE RESOURCE WARS Caselli, Francesco; Morelli, Massimo; Rohner, Dominic
The Quarterly journal of economics,
02/2015, Volume:
130, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We establish a theoretical and empirical framework to assess the role of resource endowments and their geographic location in interstate conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict ...is more likely when at least one country has natural resources, when the resources in the resource-endowed country are closer to the border, and, in the case where both countries have natural resources, when the resources are located asymmetrically vis-à-vis the border. We test these predictions on a novel data set featuring oilfield distances from bilateral borders. The empirical analysis shows that the presence and location of oil are significant and quantitatively important predictors of interstate conflicts after World War II.
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BFBNIB, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
This paper investigates the impact of energy security risk (ESR) on economic stability. Using multiple global datasets, we provide empirical evidence from a panel of 68 countries spanning over a ...period from 1980 to 2021. Our results indicate that high ESR reduces GDP growth rate (GDPG) from a global perspective. In robustness tests, this effect remains valid across several specifications based on non-U.S. samples, national income-level, alternative measure of economic stability, and a set of endogeneity tests based on propensity score matching estimation. Countries with pre-existing low GDPG mainly suffer from heightened energy insecurity. Further tests reveal that numerous country-specific institutional quality estimates moderate the effect. Finally, the damaging impact of ESR worsens during years of high inflation, geopolitical risk and acts, as well as of escalated war threats. We encourage international collaborations to develop a more sustainable energy system, which enhances the security of energy supply and the stability of economy.
•We investigate the impact of energy security risk (ESR) on economic stability.•Our results reveal that ESR significantly reduces GDP growth rate (GDPG).•This negative effect is mainly attributed to countries with preexisting low GDPG.•Country-level institutional quality moderates this effect.•The damaging impact of ESR worsens during years of high inflation and war threats.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological ...innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to nonpublic conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated.
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L’article présente les conférences « Nazareth » initiées pour explorer les relations entre les Allemands, les Juifs israéliens et d’autres groupes en relation avec l’Holocauste ou d’autres conflits. ...Ces conférences ont été créées dans le but de mieux comprendre comment les sentiments et les fantasmes liés à l’identité nationale influencent les relations entre les groupes et comment ils affectent les perceptions du futur. L’article décrit également l’évolution de ces conférences depuis leur commencement en 1994, en élargissant leur thème pour inclure d’autres groupes et en se déplaçant dans différents pays. L’auteur fait part de ses expériences personnelles, mettant en lumière les défis et les prises de conscience qu’elle a rencontrés, elle souligne l’importance du travail psychanalytique dans la compréhension des conflits intergroupes et la nécessité de promouvoir le dialogue pour prévenir de futurs cycles de haine et de violence.
•We explore the role and effective usage of GPR in forecasting oil volatility.•The GPRS index is constructed by filtering the GPR larger than a threshold.•The GARCH-MIDAS-GPRS model performs the ...best.•GPRS but not GPR contains useful information for forecasting oil volatility.•Both GPR and GPRS help gain higher economic returns.
Motivated by the importance of geopolitical risk and its possible predictive power for oil volatility, this paper aims to quantitatively investigate the role of geopolitical risk (GPR), especially serious geopolitical risk (GPRS), in forecasting oil volatility. For research purposes, the GARCH-MIDAS model is extended by incorporating GPR and GPRS. Then, the new extensions are examined from the perspectives of both statistical and economic significance. In-sample results show that GPR and GPRS lead to oil market fluctuations, while the out-of-sample results strongly confirm that the GARCH-MIDAS-GPRS model with serious GPR significantly outperforms the GARCH-MIDAS model. Moreover, both GPR and GPRS help gain higher economic returns. In particular, serious geopolitical risk contains useful information for the recent future oil volatility and can provide the best economic gains. Oil market investors and government policymakers should pay more attention to extreme geopolitical events and serious geopolitical risk in the context of risk management and portfolio allocation.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is obviously the most prominent war in Europe since the second world war, changing the dynamics of the oil and other prominent markets. As the oil market has been ...historically known to associate with other financial and commodity markets, it is important to see if oil connects differently with prominent financial assets during market turbulence caused by a war. Thus, we make the first attempt to examine how oil connects with prominent financial assets, namely bonds, bitcoin, U.S. dollar, gold, and stocks, using intra-day data, before and during the war. We find that connectedness is stronger during the war than before it. Oil becomes a net transmitter of spillovers during the war, unlike in the pre-war era when it is characterized as a net receiver of spillovers. Also, whereas the net directional pairwise results suggest heterogeneity regarding how oil connects individually with each of the remaining assets before the war, oil has a strong spillover effect on all of them during the war. However, the spillover effect is transitory, as it dies out over time. The findings are robust to intra-day data of different frequency, and have suitable implications for short-term investors, and further agendas for future research in relation to the impacts of the war are provided.
•Connectedness of oil with prominent financial assets during Russia-Ukraine war.•Stronger connectedness holds during the war than before it.•Oil changes from being a net receiver of spillovers before the war to a net transmitter after it.•All other assets are affected by oil during the war, although gold still remains a net transmitter to the entire system.•The spillover effect of oil is transitory, as it dies out gradually.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The growth of geopolitical tension and conflicts in the modern world pose a serious threat to the international security system. It has been established that in recent years conflict at the ...international level has reached a critical level with the highest risk of nuclear confrontation based on the results of the conducted research. In this regard, issues of constructive resolution of international conflicts, establishment and maintenance of a stable structure of international relations are gaining significant relevance. The purpose of the article is to determine the essence of conflicts with the study of their impact on the state of international security and to build an analytical basis for the formation of systemic decisions aimed at their settlement in the conditions of growing geopolitical tension. Analysis of conceptual approaches, theories and concepts of conflict research has been provided in the course of the research. Classifications and typologies of international conflicts are considered with an emphasis on the main structural elements of the conflict. The formation of an analytical system for supporting strategic decision-making has been proposed in order to solve issues related to the settlement of international conflicts and the effective development of international relations. The proposed system combines four subsystems, namely: the subsystem of forming information databases, the subsystem of determining relationships, the subsystem of modelling and the subsystem of forming strategic decisions. The practical use of the proposed system will make it possible to form analytical information and determine the dominant factors of influence on the socio-economic state and the conflict situation. It is possible to determine the trends in the development of international conflicts and to form strategies for their settlement and increase the efficiency of international relations, taking into account the long-term perspective on the basis of obtaining analytical information.
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