Abstract We suggest a generalized collective model of consumption that extends Browning, Chiappori, and Lewbel to couples with children. Economies of scale are defined using a general form of Barten ...scales. We identify resource sharing among household members and, originally, the contribution of each parent to the expenditure on children. We provide a tractable estimation approach based on a simple demand system for male and female clothing, that is, two exclusive goods commonly available in standard surveys. We illustrate the method on thirty years of expenditure data for the UK. We relax the independence of the sharing rule on total expenditure and actually find that women’s shares increase with living standards. This, and progress in education levels, explains most of the reduction in intra-household inequality over the period.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract We develop a theoretical model for the intra-household allocation of time and consumption that distinguishes between partners’ joint and private leisure. Estimating the model using time-use ...data leads to five findings. First, the intra-household expenditure distribution correlates with relative wages, consistent with the collective model. Second, men put relatively more weight on private expenditure and composite leisure. Third, joint and private leisure are imperfect substitutes. Fourth, joint and private leisure are independent of the wage distribution, suggesting that togetherness does not substitute for economic factors. Fifth, higher female wages imply higher childcare hours for women, but lower for men.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
We examine the targeting effects of stricter screening in the Dutch Disability Insurance (DI) program induced by a nationwide reform. The drastic “Gatekeeper Protocol” increased application costs and ...revealed more information about individuals’ ability to work. Discontinuity-in-Time regressions on administrative data show substantial declines in DI application rates (40% in one year) following the reform, particularly among difficult-to-verify impairments and less severe health disorders. Individuals that were deterred from applying had worse health and worked less than never-applicants. Changes in average health conditions of awardees were almost fully driven by selfscreening and work resumption during the DI sick-pay period.
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CEKLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
New projects using existing storage technologies such as Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS) face uncertainty due to the lack of clear business models. Market regimes have generally tended to embed storage ...and generators within the central management of operators with multiple assets such as the French EdF (Electricité de France). By means of back-casting, this study depicts the role of storage in the power market, within the vertical integration in the governance portfolio of EdF. A dynamic algorithm simulates hourly operation under two different storage strategies, daily and weekly, and the results are compared with actual patterns over the period 2015-2019. This reveals missing money for a stand-alone player due to price arbitrage caused by low spread, and missing market opportunities. This suggests that the economics of storage are not driven by spot prices alone, but by other services, such as the energy block provision in support of nuclear power. Differential calculus is used to estimate the value of flows integrating the duration of storage and its seasonality. These findings further support the French regulator to install new PHS despite the lack of profitability, by means of capacity-energy hybrid contracts for new competitors in place of the existing government-industry structure.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international ...newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of official communications of the central bank from the media comments. The resulting (daily) index correlates with some (monthly) standard measures of economic sentiment but reveals idiosyncratic information on monetary policy. Analyzing the determinants of our index, we find that both press conference and inter-meeting communications of the President significantly affect media sentiment. We then show that, controlling for a large range of factors, daily changes in media sentiment have predictive power for financial market inflation expectations.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Does inflation targeting foster private domestic investment in developing countries? A few studies have attempted to examine this issue, with mixed results. Here we argue that by anchoring public ...expectations firmly, the inflation targeting framework should enhance monetary policy credibility and macroeconomic stability, thereby promoting investment incentives. Using data from 62 countries over the period 1990-2019 and applying propensity score matching methods, we find that inflation targeting significantly increases domestic investment. However, inflation deviations from the target reduce the favorable effect of inflation targeting on investment. Furthermore, the positive effect of inflation targeting on investment is amplified in emerging economies and in countries with sound fiscal discipline. Finally, we explore the underlying mechanisms and show that macroeconomic stability, i.e., the reduction in inflation and its volatility, interest rate, exchange rate, and output volatility, is the main channel through which the monetary framework promotes domestic investment.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast ...framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking-based algorithms are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shape recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shape, and a severe one with an L-shape. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%-70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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