Normal Accidentsanalyzes the social side of technological risk. Charles Perrow argues that the conventional engineering approach to ensuring safety--building in more warnings and safeguards--fails ...because systems complexity makes failures inevitable. He asserts that typical precautions, by adding to complexity, may help create new categories of accidents. (At Chernobyl, tests of a new safety system helped produce the meltdown and subsequent fire.) By recognizing two dimensions of risk--complex versus linear interactions, and tight versus loose coupling--this book provides a powerful framework for analyzing risks and the organizations that insist we run them.
The first edition fulfilled one reviewer's prediction that it "may mark the beginning of accident research." In the new afterword to this edition Perrow reviews the extensive work on the major accidents of the last fifteen years, including Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Challenger disaster. The new postscript probes what the author considers to be the "quintessential 'Normal Accident'" of our time: the Y2K computer problem.
Soil heavy metal pollution has been becoming serious and widespread in China. To date, there are few studies assessing the nationwide soil heavy metal pollution induced by industrial and agricultural ...activities in China. This review obtained heavy metal concentrations in soils of 402 industrial sites and 1041 agricultural sites in China throughout the document retrieval. Based on the database, this review assessed soil heavy metal concentration and estimated the ecological and health risks on a national scale. The results revealed that heavy metal pollution and associated risks posed by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and arsenic (As) are more serious. Besides, heavy metal pollution and associated risks in industrial regions are severer than those in agricultural regions, meanwhile, those in southeast China are severer than those in northwest China. It is worth noting that children are more likely to be affected by heavy metal pollution than adults. Based on the assessment results, Cd, Pb and As are determined as the priority control heavy metals; mining areas are the priority control areas compared to other areas in industrial regions; food crop plantations are the priority control areas in agricultural regions; and children are determined as the priority protection population group. This paper provides a comprehensive ecological and health risk assessment on the heavy metals in soils in Chinese industrial and agricultural regions and thus provides insights for the policymakers regarding exposure reduction and management.
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•402 industrial and 1041 agricultural sites are reviewed.•Pollution and risks in industrial regions were severer than agricultural regions.•30% of industrial sites pose potential non-carcinogenic risk.•The majority of As carcinogenic risks are at a relatively unacceptable range.•The priority control components were identified.
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The predominantly animal-centric approach of chemical safety assessment has increasingly come under pressure. Society is questioning overall performance, sustainability, continued relevance for human ...health risk assessment and ethics of this system, demanding a change of paradigm. At the same time, the scientific toolbox used for risk assessment is continuously enriched by the development of “New Approach Methodologies” (NAMs). While this term does not define the age or the state of readiness of the innovation, it covers a wide range of methods, including quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) predictions, high-throughput screening (HTS) bioassays, omics applications, cell cultures, organoids, microphysiological systems (MPS), machine learning models and artificial intelligence (AI). In addition to promising faster and more efficient toxicity testing, NAMs have the potential to fundamentally transform today’s regulatory work by allowing more human-relevant decision-making in terms of both hazard and exposure assessment. Yet, several obstacles hamper a broader application of NAMs in current regulatory risk assessment. Constraints in addressing repeated-dose toxicity, with particular reference to the chronic toxicity, and hesitance from relevant stakeholders, are major challenges for the implementation of NAMs in a broader context. Moreover, issues regarding predictivity, reproducibility and quantification need to be addressed and regulatory and legislative frameworks need to be adapted to NAMs. The conceptual perspective presented here has its focus on hazard assessment and is grounded on the main findings and conclusions from a symposium and workshop held in Berlin in November 2021. It intends to provide further insights into how NAMs can be gradually integrated into chemical risk assessment aimed at protection of human health, until eventually the current paradigm is replaced by an animal-free “Next Generation Risk Assessment” (NGRA).
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The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We ...investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment.
In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.
Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 48·7% women; median age 51·0 years IQR 40·7–59·7). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 48·4% women) and 199 431 (92 269 49·1% women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0–20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6–2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0–1·3 to 2·3, 2·0–2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced.
Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician–patient communication about primary prevention strategies.
EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research.
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Safety of Nanomaterials along Their Lifecycle Wendel Wohlleben, Thomas A.J. Kuhlbusch, Jörgen Schnekenburger, Claus-Michael Lehr / Wendel Wohlleben, Thomas A.J. Kuhlbusch, Jörgen Schnekenburger, Claus-Michael Lehr
2014, 2015, 2014-12-03
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The incorporation of nanomaterials into products can improve performance, efficiency, and durability in various fields ranging from construction, energy management, catalysis, microelectronics, ...plastics, coatings, and paints to consumer articles such as foods and cosmetics. But innovation never comes at zero risk. The potential hazards resulting fr
Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate National Research Council; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change ...
06/2009
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Open access
Everyone-government agencies, private organizations, and individuals-is facing a changing climate: an environment in which it is no longer prudent to follow routines based on past climatic averages. ...State and local agencies in particular, as well as the federal government, need to consider what they will have to do differently if the 100-year flood arrives every decade or so, if the protected areas for threatened species are no longer habitable, or if a region can expect more frequent and more severe wildfires, hurricanes, droughts, water shortages, or other extreme environmental events. Both conceptually and practically, people and organizations will have to adjust what may be life-long assumptions to meet the potential consequences of climate change. How and where should bridges be built? What zoning rules may need to be changed? How can targets for reduced carbon emissions be met? These and myriad other questions will need to be answered in the coming years and decades.
Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate examines the growing need for climate-related decision support-that is, organized efforts to produce, disseminate, and facilitate the use of data and information in order to improve the quality and efficacy of climate-related decisions. Drawing on evidence from past efforts to organize science for improved decision making, it develops guidance for government agencies and other institutions that will provide or use information for coping with climate change. This volume provides critical analysis of interest to agencies at every level, as well as private organizations that will have to cope with the world's changing climate.
This volume is part of the ongoing review of the underlying scientific bases for decision-making in chemical risk assessment by International Programme on Chemical Safety. It involves specific ...consideration of the area of dose-response assessment in the evaluation of information from toxicological studies in animals and from human clinical and epidemiological studies. It covers toxicants with threshold effects and those for which there may be no practical threshold, such as substances that are genotoxic and carcinogenic. The discussions are concerned with that subset of cause-effect relationships commonly referred to as dose-response models, which are typically used to characterize the biological effects of intentional (e.g. drugs and nutrients) and unintentional (e.g. contaminants) exposure to chemicals.This report is intended primarily to provide descriptive guidance for risk assessors in using dose-response modelling in hazard characterization. It will also provide mathematical modellers with an appreciation of issues to be considered when modelling in the context of the risk assessment process. Risk managers will be able to obtain a general understanding of the applications and limitations of dose-response modelling. For both risk assessors and risk managers, some considerations for communicating the results of risk assessments that use dose-response modelling are presented.
Only recently has the environment been clearly implicated in the risk of antibiotic resistance to clinical outcome, but to date there have been few documented approaches to formally assess these ...risks.
We examined possible approaches and sought to identify research needs to enable human health risk assessments (HHRA) that focus on the role of the environment in the failure of antibiotic treatment caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens.
The authors participated in a workshop held 4-8 March 2012 in Québec, Canada, to define the scope and objectives of an environmental assessment of antibiotic-resistance risks to human health. We focused on key elements of environmental-resistance-development "hot spots," exposure assessment (unrelated to food), and dose response to characterize risks that may improve antibiotic-resistance management options.
Various novel aspects to traditional risk assessments were identified to enable an assessment of environmental antibiotic resistance. These include a) accounting for an added selective pressure on the environmental resistome that, over time, allows for development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB); b) identifying and describing rates of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in the relevant environmental "hot spot" compartments; and c) modifying traditional dose-response approaches to address doses of ARB for various health outcomes and pathways.
We propose that environmental aspects of antibiotic-resistance development be included in the processes of any HHRA addressing ARB. Because of limited available data, a multicriteria decision analysis approach would be a useful way to undertake an HHRA of environmental antibiotic resistance that informs risk managers.
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The triple disaster that struck Japan in March 2011 forced people living there to confront new risks in their lives. Despite the Japanese government's reassurance that radiation exposure would be ...small and unlikely to affect the health of the general population, many questioned the government's commitment to protecting their health. The disaster prompted them to become vigilant about limiting their risk exposure, and food emerged as a key area where citizens could determine their own levels of acceptable risk.
Food Safety after Fukushima examines the process by which notions about what is safe to eat were formulated after the nuclear meltdown. Its central argument is that as citizens informed themselves about potential risks, they also became savvier in their assessment of the government's handling of the crisis. The author terms this "Scientific Citizenship," and he shows that the acquisition of scientific knowledge on the part of citizens resulted in a transformed relationship between individuals and the state. Groups of citizens turned to existing and newly formed organizations where food was sourced from areas far away from the nuclear accident or screened to stricter standards than those required by the state. These organizations enabled citizens to exchange information about the disaster, meet food producers, and work to establish networks of trust where food they considered safe could circulate.
Based on extensive fieldwork and interviews with citizens groups, mothers' associations, farmers, government officials, and retailers, Food Safety after Fukushima reflects on how social relations were affected by the accident. The author vividly depicts an environment where trust between food producers and consumers had been shaken, where people felt uneasy about their food choices and the consequences they might have for their children, and where farmers were forced to deal with the consequences of pollution that was not of their making. Most poignantly, the book conveys the heavy burden now attached to the name "Fukushima" in the popular imagination and explores efforts to resurrect it.
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