The ecosystem services approach has gained broad interest in regulatory and policy circles for use in ecological risk assessment. Whilst identifying several challenges, scientific experts from ...European regulatory authorities, the chemical industry and academia considered the approach applicable to all chemical sectors and potentially contributing to greater ecological relevance for setting and assessing environmental protection goals compared to current European regulatory frameworks for chemicals. These challenges were addressed in workshops to develop a common understanding across stakeholders on how the ecosystem services concept might be used in chemical risk assessment and what would need to be done to implement it. This paper describes the consensus outcome of those discussions. Knowledge gaps and research needs were identified and prioritised, exploring the use of novel approaches from ecology, ecotoxicology and ecological modelling. Where applicable, distinction is made between prospective and retrospective ecological risk assessment. For prospective risk assessment the development of environmental scenarios accounting for chemical exposure and ecological conditions was designated as a top priority. For retrospective risk assessment the top priority research need was development of reference conditions for key ecosystem services and guidance for their derivation. Both prospective and retrospective risk assessment would benefit from guidance on the taxa and measurement endpoints relevant to specific ecosystem services and from improved understanding of the relationships between measurement endpoints from standard toxicity tests and the ecosystem services of interest (i.e. assessment endpoints). The development of mechanistic models, which could serve as ecological production functions, was identified as a priority. A conceptual framework for future chemical risk assessment based on an ecosystem services approach is presented.
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•The ecosystem services (ES) approach has potential to enhance ecological and societal relevance in ERA.•Stakeholders in EU regulation, industry, academia and NGOs agreed on priority research needs.•A framework for future chemical risk assessment based on an ES approach is presented.•Further development may benefit from recent progress in other disciplines.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Aquatic environments are identified as an ideal setting for acquisition and dissemination of antibiotic resistance, and human exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic resistance ...genes (ARGs) in aquatic environments may pose an additional health risk. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been suggested as a suitable method to evaluate and quantify this health risk. However, information about the exposure to ARB and ARGs in aquatic environments is lacking for many scenarios and dose-response models regarding the ARB infections are not developed yet. This review summarizes the current knowledge regarding the ARB and ARGs in aquatic environments and highlights the challenging questions remaining to be answered to better forecast the health risks caused by ARB and ARGs in water environments. The questions include what are the missing information needed to quantify the human health risks caused by exposing to ARB and ARGs in aquatic environments? what are the suitable markers to evaluate the ARB/ARGs contamination in aquatic environments? how frequently do the ARG selection and propagation occur in aquatic environments? and are there any unknown hot spots? Studies on the above topics will contribute to better management of antibiotic resistance dissemination in water environments and its risks on human health.
Abbreviations
3GC
3
rd
generation cephalosporins
ARB
Antibiotic resistant bacteria
ARG
Antibiotic resistance gene
CFU
Colony forming unit
DBP
Disinfection by-products
eDNA
Extracellular DNA
EPS
Extracellular polymeric substances
HGT
Horizontal gene transfer
ISCR
Insertion sequence common region
MAR
Multiple antibiotic resistant
MIC
Minimum inhibitory concentration
MGE
Mobile genetic elements
MSW
Municipal solid waste
QMRA
Quantitative microbial risk assessment
VBNC
Viable but non-culturable
WWTP
Wastewater treatment plant
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BFBNIB, GIS, IJS, KISLJ, NUK, PNG, UL, UM, UPUK
The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an increasingly popular measure for evaluating improvements in risk predictions. This article details a review of 67 publications in high-impact general ...clinical journals that considered the NRI. Incomplete reporting of NRI methods, incorrect calculation, and common misinterpretations were found. To aid improved applications of the NRI, the article elaborates on several aspects of the computation and interpretation in various settings. Limitations and controversies are discussed, including the effect of miscalibration of prediction models, the use of the continuous NRI and “clinical NRI,” and the relation with decision analytic measures. A systematic approach toward presenting NRI analysis is proposed: Detail and motivate the methods used for computation of the NRI, use clinically meaningful risk cutoffs for the category-based NRI, report both NRI components, address issues of calibration, and do not interpret the overall NRI as a percentage of the study population reclassified. Promising NRI findings need to be followed with decision analytic or formal cost-effectiveness evaluations.
The future of risk assessment Zio, E.
Reliability engineering & system safety,
September 2018, 2018-09-00, 20180901, 2018-09, Volume:
177
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
•A view on the future of risk assessment is provided.•Research directions are presented on the use of simulation for accident scenario identification and exploration.•The use of data for condition ...monitoring-based, dynamic risk assessment is discussed.•The extension of risk assessment into the framework of resilience and business continuity is presented.•The directions for and integrated safety and security assessment of CPSs are discussed.
Risk assessment must evolve for addressing the existing and future challenges, and considering the new systems and innovations that have already arrived in our lives and that are coming ahead. In this paper, I swing on the rapid changes and innovations that the World that we live in is experiencing, and analyze them with respect to the challenges that these pose to the field of risk assessment. Digitalization brings opportunities but with it comes also the complexity of cyber-phyiscal systems. Climate change and extreme natural events are increasingly threatening our infrastructures; terrorist and malevolent threats are posing severe concerns for the security of our systems and lives. These sources of hazard are extremely uncertain and, thus, difficult to describe and model quantitatively.
Some research and development directions that are emerging are presented and discussed, also considering the ever increasing computational capabilities and data availability. These include the use of simulation for accident scenario identification and exploration, the extension of risk assessment into the framework of resilience and business continuity, the reliance on data for dynamic and condition monitoring-based risk assessment, the safety and security assessment of cyber-physical systems.
The paper is not a research work and not exactly a review or a state of the art work, but rather it offers a lookout on risk assessment, open to consideration and discussion, as it cannot pretend to give an absolute point of view nor to be complete in the issues addressed (and the related literature referenced to).
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
A comprehensive study, which contains the seasonal occurrence, removal, mass loading and environmental risk assessment of 55 multi-class pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), took place ...in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Volos, Greece. A one year monitoring study was performed and the samples were collected from the influent and the effluent of the WWTP. Solid phase extraction was used for the pre-concentration of the samples followed by an LC–DAD–ESI/MS analysis. Positive samples were further confirmed by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS). The maximum concentrations of the PPCPs varied between 21ng/L and 15,320ng/L in the influents and between 18ng/L and 9965ng/L in the effluents. The most commonly detected PPCPs were the diuretic furosemide, the beta-blockers atenolol and metoprolol, the analgesics paracetamol, nimesulide, salicylic acid and diclofenac and the psychomotor stimulant caffeine. The removal efficiencies ranged between negative and high removal rates, demonstrating that the WWTP is not able to efficiently remove the complex mixture of PPCPs. The estimated mass loads ranged between 5.1 and 3513mg/day/1000 inhabitants for WWTP influent and between 4.1 to 2141mg/day/1000 inhabitants for WWTP effluent. Finally, environmental risk assessment has been regarded a necessary part of the general research. According to the results produced from the calculation of the risk quotient on three trophic levels, the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac and the antibiotics, trimethoprim and ciprofloxacin, identified to be of high potential environmental risk for acute toxicity, while diclofenac also for chronic toxicity.
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•Comprehensive study of 55 PPCPs in Greek wastewaters.•Investigation of a number of PPCPs for the first time (e.g. sildenafil, nimesulide).•Seasonal variations in terms of occurrence and removal efficiencies were observed.•The highest mass loads were observed for furosemide in both influents and effluents.•Diclofenac identified to be of high potential environmental risk.
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28.
From the Editors Cox, Tony; Lowrie, Karen
Risk analysis,
03/2020, Volume:
40, Issue:
3
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
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BFBNIB, FSPLJ, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
29.
From the Editors Cox, Tony; Lowrie, Karen
Risk analysis,
02/2020, Volume:
40, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, FSPLJ, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
'Extreme' events - including climatic events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, drought - can cause massive disruption to society, including large death tolls and property damage in the billions of ...dollars. Events in recent years have shown the importance of being prepared and that countries need to work together to help alleviate the resulting pain and suffering. This volume presents an integrated review of the broad research field of large-scale disasters. It establishes a common framework for predicting, controlling and managing both manmade and natural disasters. There is a particular focus on events caused by weather and climate change. Other topics include air pollution, tsunamis, disaster modeling, the use of remote sensing and the logistics of disaster management. It will appeal to scientists, engineers, first responders and health-care professionals, in addition to graduate students and researchers who have an interest in the prediction, prevention or mitigation of large-scale disasters.
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