Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre ...prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
An increased nitrate (NO
) concentration in groundwater has been a rising issue on a global scale in recent years. Different consumption mechanisms clearly illustrate the adverse effects on human ...health. The goal of this present study is to assess the natural and anthropogenic NO
concentrations in groundwater in a semi arid area of Rajasthan and its related risks to human health in the different groups of ages such as children, males, and females. We have found that most of the samples (n = 90) were influenced by anthropogenic activities. The background level of NO
had been estimated as 7.2 mg/L using a probabilistic approach. About 93% of nitrate samples exceeded the background limit, while 28% of the samples were beyond the permissible limit of 45 mg/L as per the BIS limits. The results show that the oral exposure of nitrate was very high as compare to dermal contact. With regard to the non-carcinogenic health risk, the total Hazard Index (HI
) values of groundwater nitrate were an average of 0.895 for males, 1.058 for females, and 1.214 for children. The nitrate health risk assessment shows that about 38%, 46%, and 49% of the samples constitute the non-carcinogenic health risk to males, females, and children, respectively. Children were found to be more prone to health risks due to the potential exposure to groundwater nitrate.
Full text
Available for:
IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Risk assessment (RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are two analytical tools used to support decision making in environmental management. This study reviewed 30 environmental assessment case studies ...that claimed an integration, combination, hybridization, or complementary use of RA and LCA. The focus of the analysis was on how the respective case studies evaluated emissions of chemical pollutants and pathogens. The analysis revealed three clusters of similar case studies. Yet, there seemed to be little consensus as to what should be referred to as RA and LCA, and when to speak of combination, integration, hybridization, or complementary use of RA and LCA. This paper provides clear recommendations toward a more stringent and consistent use of terminology. Blending elements of RA and LCA offers multifaceted opportunities to adapt a given environmental assessment case study to a specific decision making context, but also requires awareness of several implications and potential pitfalls, of which six are discussed in this paper. To facilitate a better understanding and more transparent communication of the nature of a given case study, this paper proposes a “design space” (i.e., identification framework) for environmental assessment case studies blending elements of RA and LCA. Thinking in terms of a common design space, we postulate, can increase clarity and transparency when communicating the design and results of a given assessment together with its potential strengths and weaknesses.
Full text
Available for:
IJS, KILJ, NUK, PNG, UL, UM
Millions of people are exposed to arsenic resulting in a range of health implications. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the different sources of arsenic (water, soil, and food), indicators ...of human exposure (biomarker assessment of hair, nail, urine, and blood), epidemiological and toxicological studies on carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic health outcomes, and risk assessment approaches. The review demonstrates a need for more work evaluating the risks of different arsenic species such as, arsenate, arsenite monomethylarsonic acid, monomethylarsonous acid, dimethylarsinic acid, and dimethylarsinous acid as well as a need to better integrate the different exposure sources in risk assessments.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, GIS, IJS, KISLJ, NUK, PNG, UL, UM, UPUK
Objective
Empirically informed suicide risk assessment frameworks are useful in guiding the evaluation and treatment of individuals presenting with suicidal symptoms. Joiner et al. (1999) formulated ...one such framework, which has provided a concise heuristic for the assessment of suicide risk. The purpose of this review is to ensure compatibility of this suicide risk assessment framework with the growing literature on suicide‐related behaviors.
Methods
This review integrates recent literature on suicide risk factors and clinical applications into the existing model. Further, we present a review of risk factors not previously included in the Joiner et al. (1999) framework, such as the interpersonal theory of suicide variables of perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and capability for suicide (Joiner, 2005; Van Orden et al., 2010) and acute symptoms of suicidality (i.e., agitation, irritability, weight loss, sleep disturbances, severe affective states, and social withdrawal).
Results
These additional indicators of suicide risk further facilitate the classification of patients into standardized categories of suicide risk severity and the critical clinical decision making needed for the management of such risk.
Conclusions
To increase the accessibility of empirically informed risk assessment protocols for suicide prevention and treatment, an updated suicide risk assessment form and decision tree are provided.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We update the prior standard operating procedure for magnetic resonance imaging of the prostate, and summarize the available data about the technique and clinical use for the diagnosis and management ...of prostate cancer. This update includes practical recommendations on the use of magnetic resonance imaging for screening, diagnosis, staging, treatment and surveillance of prostate cancer.
A panel of clinicians from the American Urological Association and Society of Abdominal Radiology with expertise in the diagnosis and management of prostate cancer evaluated the current published literature on the use and technique of magnetic resonance imaging for this disease. When adequate studies were available for analysis, recommendations were made on the basis of data and when adequate studies were not available, recommendations were made on the basis of expert consensus.
Prostate magnetic resonance imaging should be performed according to technical specifications and standards, and interpreted according to standard reporting. Data support its use in men with a previous negative biopsy and ongoing concerns about increased risk of prostate cancer. Sufficient data now exist to support the recommendation of magnetic resonance imaging before prostate biopsy in all men who have no history of biopsy. Currently, the evidence is insufficient to recommend magnetic resonance imaging for screening, staging or surveillance of prostate cancer.
Use of prostate magnetic resonance imaging in the risk stratification, diagnosis and treatment pathway of men with prostate cancer is expanding. When quality prostate imaging is obtained, current evidence now supports its use in men at risk of harboring prostate cancer and who have not undergone a previous biopsy, as well as in men with an increasing prostate specific antigen following an initial negative standard prostate biopsy procedure.
AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the associations between prediabetes and the risk of all cause mortality and incident cardiovascular disease in the general population and in patients with a history of ...atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.DesignUpdated meta-analysis.Data sourcesElectronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar) up to 25 April 2020.Review methodsProspective cohort studies or post hoc analysis of clinical trials were included for analysis if they reported adjusted relative risks, odds ratios, or hazard ratios of all cause mortality or cardiovascular disease for prediabetes compared with normoglycaemia. Data were extracted independently by two investigators. Random effects models were used to calculate the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcomes were all cause mortality and composite cardiovascular disease. The secondary outcomes were the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke.ResultsA total of 129 studies were included, involving 10 069 955 individuals for analysis. In the general population, prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality (relative risk 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.17), composite cardiovascular disease (1.15, 1.11 to 1.18), coronary heart disease (1.16, 1.11 to 1.21), and stroke (1.14, 1.08 to 1.20) in a median follow-up time of 9.8 years. Compared with normoglycaemia, the absolute risk difference in prediabetes for all cause mortality, composite cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke was 7.36 (95% confidence interval 9.59 to 12.51), 8.75 (6.41 to 10.49), 6.59 (4.53 to 8.65), and 3.68 (2.10 to 5.26) per 10 000 person years, respectively. Impaired glucose tolerance carried a higher risk of all cause mortality, coronary heart disease, and stroke than impaired fasting glucose. In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality (relative risk 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.54), composite cardiovascular disease (1.37, 1.23 to 1.53), and coronary heart disease (1.15, 1.02 to 1.29) in a median follow-up time of 3.2 years, but no difference was seen for the risk of stroke (1.05, 0.81 to 1.36). Compared with normoglycaemia, in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the absolute risk difference in prediabetes for all cause mortality, composite cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, and stroke was 66.19 (95% confidence interval 38.60 to 99.25), 189.77 (117.97 to 271.84), 40.62 (5.42 to 78.53), and 8.54 (32.43 to 61.45) per 10 000 person years, respectively. No significant heterogeneity was found for the risk of all outcomes seen for the different definitions of prediabetes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (all P>0.10).ConclusionsResults indicated that prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general population and in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Screening and appropriate management of prediabetes might contribute to primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.
Full text
Available for:
BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of ...disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million 192·7 million to 231·1 million global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million 134·2 million to 163·1 million), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million 125·1 million to 163·5 million), high BMI (120·1 million 83·8 million to 158·4 million), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million 103·9 million to 123·4 million), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million 90·8 million to 115·1 million), high total cholesterol (88·7 million 74·6 million to 105·7 million), household air pollution (85·6 million 66·7 million to 106·1 million), alcohol use (85·0 million 77·2 million to 93·0 million), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million 49·3 million to 127·5 million). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Full text
Available for:
GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
PDF
