•A database for news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is developed.•Using the ARMAX model, systemic risk implications of the news are investigated.•The systemic instability costs of the conflict ...go beyond Russia and Ukraine.•Economic sanctions pose significant systemic risk spillovers to Europe and the USA.
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has increased systemic vulnerabilities of the global financial system. We develop a database of news events and investigate the systemic risk implications of the conflict on Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, and China. Results show that systemic instability costs of the conflict go beyond Russia and Ukraine. Sanctions cause systemic risk spillovers to European countries and the USA. Study findings caution against the accumulation of systemic risk as sanctions may adversely affect the rest of the world aside from the main target - Russia.
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The Russia-Ukraine war is disrupting the global supply chains contributing to soaring world market prices of many commodities whose repercussions are sought to be severe for many African countries. ...This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers on Ethiopia’s economy. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study shows that GDP, wage rates, and households’ consumption in the country decline. The effects of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are particularly notable and unequal across production sectors. Crop growing activities tend to substitute inorganic fertilizers by animal manure. The overall effects on urban households are relatively severe compared to the effects on rural households. Increasing fertilizer prices tighten the competition for the use of animal manure as fertilizer (in crop cultivation) and as fuel (by households). Promoting biogas digesters among rural households would encourage the optimal use of animal manure.
The Russia-Ukraine war is a multifaceted beast. It ranges from fighting on the ground to high diplomacy, from domestic anti-war protests to international weapon supplies, from justification through ...sham referenda to coercion via economic sabotage, and from operational misdirection to covering up war crimes. There are close connections between these facets: the collapse of a front leads to the discovery of mass graves; the delivery of weapon systems depends on Zelensky’s appeal to the international community; sham referenda followed by annexation enable accusations of unwillingly mobilised soldiers who refuse to defend the motherland. This volume sheds light on the Russia-Ukraine war, exploring this multitude of facets and their interconnections. Bringing together the expertise of our colleagues at the Netherlands Defense Academy (NLDA) allows us to adopt a distinctively interdisciplinary approach, offering uniquely comprehensive and timely reflections on this armed conflict. The 27 chapters in this volume are centered around five themes. The first section covers historical and contemporary narratives, intelligence, digital technologies, and communication strategies. The second provides in-depth analyses of the operational aspects of the war, including warfighting on land, at sea, in the air, as well as in the space and cyber domains. The third section on international involvement covers topics such as sanctions, burden sharing, arms support and implications of the war on international institutions and the world order. The fourth provides analyses of the normative framework that applies to the Russia-Ukraine war. Finally, the fifth section deals with the way armed forces can transform their organisations and learn from this war, and concludes with questions on how and when the Russia-Ukraine war might end.
The slow advance of the Russian army in Ukraine in the first stage of its invasion and its eventual withdrawal from the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions in April 2022 has raised several questions among ...analysts. Although this situation can be explained by numerous factors, this research note highlights how the Russian military's organization of its logistics and resupply around railways has played a significant role in its failure to achieve the Kremlin's initial objectives.
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The war in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the environment. Military actions have caused the release of hazardous substances into the environment, such as pollutants and toxic chemicals, that ...have contaminated the water, soil, and air, posing a threat to both human health and the environment. This has resulted in widespread destruction and contamination of natural habitats and resources and has disrupted wildlife populations and ecosystems. The impacts of military activity on the soils of protected areas are particularly critical, as they are the basis of biotic and landscape diversity and require special management and scientifically based monitoring measures even in peaceful conditions. In this context, this communication paper aims to provide an overview of the impacts of the war on the soils in four Ukrainian protected areas, namely Chornobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve; Desniansko-Starohutskyi National Nature Park; Holosiivskyi National Nature Park, and Hetmanskyi National Nature Park. To address these aspects, this paper combined GIS analysis and secondary data including soil samples obtained during field expeditions, to provide evidence of how ground battles, occupation, terrestrial land mines, and explosions can severely impact the soils. Practical and theoretical implications of the military actions are also discussed.
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•The research combined GIS analysis and secondary data including soil samples to provide evidence of war impacts in Ukraine.•This study discovered and discribed military actions that endangered environment of four protected areas in Ukraine.•On-site assessment of territories provided evidence of the destruction of soil horizons and alteration of their properties.•The soil sample analyses found that the protected areas are contaminated with hazard elements (I-III classes).•This study explored the interconnections of war and environmental degradation, and suggested mitigation measures.
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This study employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto Regressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach to investigate the dynamic interconnections, portfolio performance, and hedging effectiveness ...across hydrogen economy, renewable energy markets, equities, and energy commodities amidst the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Our findings reveal a consistent level of average connectedness during both black swan events, with dynamic connectedness reaching its peak during the COVID-19 crisis. While some assets (hydrogen economy index, renewable, solar and clean technology index) persistently function as net transmitters, the others (geothermal index, crude oil, natural gas, biofuel, and gold) consistently act as net receivers. We also find that the role of equity indices (wind energy, fuel cell, FTSE_100, and S&P 500) as net transmitters or receivers changes over time. The network plot results show that the hydrogen economy typically functions as shock transmitters for equity market indices and commodities. Portfolio analysis underscores the superior risk-adjusted performance of the minimum variance (connectedness) portfolio during the COVID-19 crisis in comparison to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, our examination of effective hedge and portfolio strategies demonstrates that managed collateralized portfolio weights of hydrogen economy and renewable energy assets (equities) in the minimum variance portfolio increase (decrease) from 7% to 12% (53%–41%) during the COVID-19 crisis, and subsequently decline (rise) further to 6% (53%) amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These findings suggest a preference for hydrogen economy and renewable energy assets as hedging instruments in health-related financial crises over crises precipitated by military conflicts.
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As the interconnection of the European electricity markets and integration of renewables progresses, there is little known about interconnectedness across them at times of market turbulence. The ...electricity crisis of 2021 and 2023 were significant events that can also provide lessons in the behaviour of integrated markets with high renewables under stress. Despite the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on the European energy market, little is known about their effects on the transmission of risks between the electricity markets. We employ the quantile connectedness approach to quantify the return connectedness between eleven key European markets, as well as the natural gas and carbon markets. We then examine the effect of the two crises on the interconnectedness. We find significant return interconnectedness, driven by spillover effects, among the markets. Analysis of connectedness across quantiles shows that the spillover effects are much stronger at tail ends of conditional distribution. Moreover, our results reveal opposite effects from crises on market interconnectedness. While the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the interconnectedness, the Russia-Ukraine war intensified the return shock transmission. Finally, we find that the natural gas and carbon markets are net recipients of return shocks across the quantiles.
•Increase in TCI shows stronger ties in EU electricity markets, driven by efforts for a unified internal market.•Integration differences among markets reveal distinct regional patterns, especially in Nordic and Western Europe.•Key transmitters: Sweden, Germany, France, Denmark; net receivers: Finland, Norway, Italy, Poland.•Natural gas and EUA markets receive more return shocks than they transmit.•Stronger connectedness in natural gas and EUA during extreme shocks observed.•COVID-19 reduces connectedness, while Russia-Ukraine war increases it, showing varied impacts of global events.
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El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar cómo medios de la prensa internacional (El País, CNN, Los Ángeles Times, DW y Euro News) reproducen las estrategias lingüístico-discursivas que las ...elites estadounidenses y sus aliados usan para deslegitimar las acciones y los discursos de sus enemigos como la identidad, las acciones y su discurso. El marco teórico establece que las estrategias lingüístico-discursivas empleadas por las elites gubernamentales y mediáticas en la representación del enemigo son la recontextualización y revalorización del enemigo en sus prácticas y como actor social (VAN LEEUWEN, 1993, 1999). La metodología incluye 60 noticias en orden sincrónico. Las conclusiones demuestran que estos textos son un constructo ideológico articulado para evaluar la legitimidad de las acciones del enemigo-ruso.
Russia’s full-fledged war on Ukraine, which started in February 2022, added major uncertainties to foreign direct investment (FDI) to and from Russia and affected it negatively in the short, medium, ...and long run. The degree of the hit would depend on the exact contents of sanctions and countersanctions in constant development. However, the severe consequences of some of them were already visible early on, adding to the financial strain caused by the war. FDI to and from Russia fell drastically in 2022 and, depending on the length and depth of the conflict, would remain sluggish in the subsequent years if no exit strategy is found to stop the conflict and its eventual escalation. This article concludes that the fall in FDI would, in the end, hurt the economic capacities of Russia, already affected by a previous round of sanctions imposed in 2014. If it works, decoupling the Russian economy from FDI partners by applying sanctions would be effective only partially and at a relatively high cost. That, in turn, could thwart the very economic fundamentals of the war effort.
