•Is the Russian-Ukraine war explaining cryptocurrency price falls?•Return coherences with attention on the Russia-Ukraine War.•Co-movements between War attention and cryptocurrencies.•War attention ...negatively (positively) affects all cryptocurrencies in the short term.•Results consistent with cryptocurrency investors responding to War attention by seeking liquidity.
Cryptocurrency values have recently fallen substantially. Why? We examine the impact of attention on the Russia-Ukraine War, proxied by Google Trends, on cryptocurrencies (and equity) to measure the returns coherences. Using quantile cross-spectral analysis and daily data for February 24, 2022–June 21, 2022, we observe that co-movements between War attention and cryptocurrencies depends on investment horizon and market state. Under bearish and normal (bull) markets, War attention negatively (positively) affects all cryptocurrencies in the short term. Results are consistent with cryptocurrency investors responding to War attention by seeking liquidity, with recent price falls explained as sell-offs by large holders.
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Russia’s full-fledged war on Ukraine, which started in February 2022, added major uncertainties to foreign direct investment (FDI) to and from Russia and affected it negatively in the short, medium, ...and long run. The degree of the hit would depend on the exact contents of sanctions and countersanctions in constant development. However, the severe consequences of some of them were already visible early on, adding to the financial strain caused by the war. FDI to and from Russia fell drastically in 2022 and, depending on the length and depth of the conflict, would remain sluggish in the subsequent years if no exit strategy is found to stop the conflict and its eventual escalation. This article concludes that the fall in FDI would, in the end, hurt the economic capacities of Russia, already affected by a previous round of sanctions imposed in 2014. If it works, decoupling the Russian economy from FDI partners by applying sanctions would be effective only partially and at a relatively high cost. That, in turn, could thwart the very economic fundamentals of the war effort.
This paper examines the dynamic connectedness between Gulf countries and BRICS stocks markets with a sample of cryptocurrencies, as well as two newly developed digital assets, namely NFT and DeFi, ...and Gold. The period under examination spans from January 2019 until September 2022. Our analysis is based on wavelet coherence, which is a suitable methodology considering the nonlinear dynamics present in data. Our empirical results clearly identify nontrivial time-varying connectedness between different assets and the stock markets. Asymmetric patterns in the interconnections of newly developed digital assets, cryptocurrencies, Gold and emerging market indices are well-documented, especially during the advent of the health and political events. Our empirical findings have relevant implications for portfolio managers, investors and researchers about portfolio allocation, investment strategies and potential diversification benefits of NFT and DeFi digital assets.
•Connectedness among various asset classes tends to be time-varying.•Connectedness intensifies during the health and political crises.•Asymmetric patterns in cross-market linkages are well-pronounced.•Health and political events change significantly pairwise connectedness framework.
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Şubat 2022’de sıcak çatışmalarla başlayan Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı özellikle AB ülkelerini enerji arzı güvenliği konusunda yakın geçmişte hiç olmadığı kadar ciddi sorunlarla karşı karşıya getirmiştir. ...Bir yandan AB çatısı diğer yandan NATO şemsiyesi altında Rusya’nın Ukrayna’ya saldırısına yaptırımlar yoluyla tepki vermeye yönelen Avrupa ülkelerinin, özellikle Rus doğalgazına bağımlılıkları nedeniyle beklenen etkiyi gösterdiklerini söylemek zordur. AB içine düştüğü enerji krizinden kurtulmak için alternatif enerji tedarik yollarına başvurmuş olsa da yeni ve ciddi anlamda yüksek maliyetli yatırımlar gerektirdiği için, bu çaba kısa vadede etkili bir çözüm bulmaktan uzaktır. Dolayısıyla hiçbir AB ülkesi Rusya ile ilişkilerini bitirme anlamına gelebilecek katı bir tutum sergilemeyi göze alamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının AB ülkelerinde yol açtığı enerji arz güvenliği sorunu ve buna bağlı olarak kısa ve orta vadede AB-Rusya ilişkilerinin geleceği üzerine değerlendirmelere yer verilmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Enerji Güvenliği, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, Yaptırımlar
JEL Sınıflandırması: F51, F52, F53.
The Russia-Ukraine War, which started with hot conflicts in February 2022, has brought the EU countries face to face with more serious problems than ever in the recent past, especially in terms of energy supply security. It is difficult to say that European countries, which tend to react to Russia's attack on Ukraine under the protection of the EU on the one hand and NATO on the other, through sanctions, have shown the expected effect, especially due to their dependence on Russian natural gas. Although the EU has resorted to alternative energy supply methods to get rid of the energy crisis it has fallen into, this is far from being an effective solution in the short term, as it requires new and seriously high-cost investments.. Therefore, no EU country can afford to adopt a strict stance that could mean ending its relations with Russia. In this study, evaluations on the energy supply security problem caused by the Russia-Ukraine War in EU countries and, accordingly, the future of EU-Russia relations in the short and medium term are included.
Key Words: Energy Security, Russia-Ukraine War, Sanctions.
JEL Classification: F51, F52, F53.
The study investigates the dynamic interconnections and opportunities for hedging among cryptocurrency, commodity, and Islamic stock markets using DCC-GARCH and Spillover connectedness models. Using ...daily data covering the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19 outbreak from December 1, 2019 to April 15, 2022, we document weak and frequently negative correlation between Bitcoin and Islamic stock markets. Thus, Bitcoin could be viewed as a haven from Islamic stock market losses. The results also indicate that Bitcoin's diversification benefits are normally steady and increase considerably during turbulence. Furthermore, the net return spillovers from the Bitcoin market remain above zero during most of the study period. We also find that utilizing Bitcoin as a hedge during the COVID-19 pandemic phase leads to higher expenses. The outcomes of this investigation are expected to carry substantial ramifications for Indonesian investors and portfolio managers who adhere to Shariah law since they will enable them to comprehend the advantages of diversifying portfolios across various periods of stock holding or investment horizons.
This article explores the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the metals, conventional energy, and renewable energy markets, by using an event research technique. The data collected demonstrates a ...significant increase in the anomalous returns that are associated with the renewable energy industry. Apart from the gas oil index, none of the conventional energy or metals markets tend to exhibit large abnormal returns on the event day. Moreover, Europe was one of the first clean energy markets to react to war. The impact was, likewise, highest on the t+1 day, which was not the case that showed replication in the other markets. War had a significant influence on gold, platinum, palladium, and nickel, among other metals.
•This study examines the impact of Russo-Ukrainian war on energy markets and metal markets using the event study approach.•The abnormal returns are positively significant only in clean energy markets on the event day.•The index-level analysis shows that the European renewable market was the first to react to war news.•The impact of war was more prolonged on many clean energy indices, Gas oil, Gasoline, heating oil, Nickel, and Palladium in the post-event era.
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The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is obviously the most prominent war in Europe since the second world war, changing the dynamics of the oil and other prominent markets. As the oil market has been ...historically known to associate with other financial and commodity markets, it is important to see if oil connects differently with prominent financial assets during market turbulence caused by a war. Thus, we make the first attempt to examine how oil connects with prominent financial assets, namely bonds, bitcoin, U.S. dollar, gold, and stocks, using intra-day data, before and during the war. We find that connectedness is stronger during the war than before it. Oil becomes a net transmitter of spillovers during the war, unlike in the pre-war era when it is characterized as a net receiver of spillovers. Also, whereas the net directional pairwise results suggest heterogeneity regarding how oil connects individually with each of the remaining assets before the war, oil has a strong spillover effect on all of them during the war. However, the spillover effect is transitory, as it dies out over time. The findings are robust to intra-day data of different frequency, and have suitable implications for short-term investors, and further agendas for future research in relation to the impacts of the war are provided.
•Connectedness of oil with prominent financial assets during Russia-Ukraine war.•Stronger connectedness holds during the war than before it.•Oil changes from being a net receiver of spillovers before the war to a net transmitter after it.•All other assets are affected by oil during the war, although gold still remains a net transmitter to the entire system.•The spillover effect of oil is transitory, as it dies out gradually.
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As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, Ukraine faces a daunting task: how to restore its military advantage. To maximise Ukraine's chances of eventual victory, Western countries need to ...recognise that the driving engine of Ukraine's effectiveness has been a destruction-centred approach. This approach has resulted in high levels of attrition and could prove an important part of the West's and Ukraine's theory of victory. The West enjoys the overall advantage in resources and should therefore focus on facilitating Ukraine's ability to establish a decisive advantage in fires. The West also needs to help Ukraine scale its capacity to employ units so that it can exploit that advantage in offensive operations. The West will need to appreciate Ukrainian force structure and military culture, as well as the challenges posed by an increasingly mobilised military, which means avoiding the temptation to try to convert the Ukrainian military to a more Western, manoeuvre-centred way of fighting.
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The Russia-Ukraine war is not approaching stalemate but remains dynamic and unpredictable. The balance of resources favours the West: its economic superiority over Russia is much greater than during ...the Cold War. But the balance of resolve favours Russia: it is mobilising its capacity more effectively than the coalition of open democracies that supports Ukraine. The West needs a geo-economic strategy to harness its inherent strength to security goals. It should do three things: mobilise military-industrial production; move towards a general prohibition on trade with Russia with few exceptions; and confiscate the $300 billion in Russian central-bank assets frozen in Western financial systems. Given the stakes of the war, unfounded fears of adverse consequences should not deter Western countries from taking these steps.
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