Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine constitutes a critical juncture for the trajectory of the liberal-international order. It has undermined the US-led order by widening geopolitical rifts ...between the West and the Global South, increasing pressure on liberal democracy on a global scale and weakening the neo-liberal economic paradigm that has anchored the economic order since the 1980s.
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The Russia-Ukraine war is having far-reaching negative impacts on the food-energy-ecosystem nexus and has resulted in an increase in environmental pollution not only in the war-affected regions. The ...purpose of this review is to critically evaluate the degradation caused by the war and its implications for the food-energy-ecosystem nexus. By examining the specific environmental impacts, this review provides an in-depth understanding of the extent of the damage and its consequences for the interconnected systems of food production, energy supply, and the overall ecosystem. Furthermore, this review addresses the impacts of the ongoing war on the food-energy-ecosystem nexus and underlines the challenges associated with resource recovery in the aftermath of the war. It also highlights the war impacts on the essential commodities' supply chain. Moreover, a plausible strategy for post-war ecosystem restoration has been presented in order to prioritize on the recovery and rejuvenation of the environment. This review also attempts to act as a wake-up call to the urgency of achieving a cease-fire, as the long-term effects of the war would include permanent environmental harm in addition to human and economic losses.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This book provides a systematic analysis of the Russian-Ukraine war, using the concept of resilient fighting power to assess the operational performance of both sides during the first year of the ...full-scale invasion. The Russian war in Ukraine began in 2014 and continued for eight years, before the full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022. It is not a new war, but the intensity of the warfighting revived many discussions about the conduct of inter-state warfare, which has not been seen in Europe for decades. This book does not aim to offer an exhaustive operational analysis of the war, but rather provides a preliminary systematic analysis across various domains of warfare using the concept of fighting power to assess the operational performance of both sides. First, the book discusses the conceptual component and the post-Cold War adaptations of the Soviet strategic tradition by both the Ukrainian and the Russian Armed Forces. Following that, it gives an evaluation of the various aspects of warfighting in the land, air, maritime and cyber domains. Then, the book examines the role of international allied assistance, sanctions and weapons delivery in strengthening the resilience of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The book concludes with some comments on the role of inter-state warfare in the current strategic environment and future warfare. This book will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, defence studies, foreign policy, Russian studies and international relations.
We infer the asset value dynamics of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war via the structural model of Merton (1974). Using high-frequency stock price data, we find that the war led to lower ...corporate security prices and higher asset volatility, eventually shifting asset values closer to the default region. On average, the balance sheet of European firms is expected to shrink by 2.05% and their 1-year default probability to increase from 0.32% to 2.12%. Regression analysis on asset and equity returns as well as default probability changes suggests that these effects are stronger for firms with large revenue exposure to Russia.
•We infer the asset value dynamics of European firms from high-frequency stock price data.•The ongoing Russia–Ukraine war results in higher asset volatility, credit spreads, and default probabilities.•On average, the balance-sheet of European firms is expected to shrink by approximately 2%.•These negative shocks are more pronounced for firms with a large exposure to the Russian economy.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
As the interconnection of the European electricity markets and integration of renewables progresses, there is little known about interconnectedness across them at times of market turbulence. The ...electricity crisis of 2021 and 2023 were significant events that can also provide lessons in the behaviour of integrated markets with high renewables under stress. Despite the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on the European energy market, little is known about their effects on the transmission of risks between the electricity markets. We employ the quantile connectedness approach to quantify the return connectedness between eleven key European markets, as well as the natural gas and carbon markets. We then examine the effect of the two crises on the interconnectedness. We find significant return interconnectedness, driven by spillover effects, among the markets. Analysis of connectedness across quantiles shows that the spillover effects are much stronger at tail ends of conditional distribution. Moreover, our results reveal opposite effects from crises on market interconnectedness. While the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the interconnectedness, the Russia-Ukraine war intensified the return shock transmission. Finally, we find that the natural gas and carbon markets are net recipients of return shocks across the quantiles.
•Increase in TCI shows stronger ties in EU electricity markets, driven by efforts for a unified internal market.•Integration differences among markets reveal distinct regional patterns, especially in Nordic and Western Europe.•Key transmitters: Sweden, Germany, France, Denmark; net receivers: Finland, Norway, Italy, Poland.•Natural gas and EUA markets receive more return shocks than they transmit.•Stronger connectedness in natural gas and EUA during extreme shocks observed.•COVID-19 reduces connectedness, while Russia-Ukraine war increases it, showing varied impacts of global events.
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Most reactions to the Russia-Ukraine War, especially in the West, have been critical of Moscow's aggression and sympathetic to Ukraine. But there is also a view, especially in the East, that the ...situation is not as black and white as it is made out to be, that there is a gray-area in global affairs related to the conflict. This research article highlights contrarian views from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and the reasons for the same. It also examines contrarian women's perspectives on how underplaying the plight of war-affected women in the Middle East, compared to highlighting the plight of Ukrainian women, is tantamount to hypocrisy. It argues that these contrarian views are partly rooted in ideological moorings and also economic, political, and security concerns. Using empirical data from secondary sources, this article also contends that such reactions do not condone Russia's belligerence but reflect a growing multipolar global order where strategic ambivalence on global affairs is a new tool to promote strategic autonomy as well as often-ignored human security.
To counter the escalating threat of direct conflict with rogue nations, the use of sanctions packages has become a preferred tactical response. However, although targeted, there are significantly ...elevated spillover effects that can generate sectoral damage. While the literature on sanctions has focused on analyzing the effectiveness and the impact on the sanctioned and sanctioning country, spillover effects have not been addressed in the tourism and travel industry. Based on behavioral decision theory and modern portfolio theory, this study states hypotheses and confronts two potential results derived from each theory regarding the way negative consequences of sanctions spill over into airlines. Using the aviation sanctions packages derived from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 in different regions worldwide, the results indicate greater spillovers flow into airlines than other aviation-related corporations, into big firms than small firms, and with significant differential effects on each analyzed region.
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As it has unfolded, the Russia-Ukraine war has provided a reminder of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the global significance of maritime communications. It has also highlighted the ...particular challenges of maintaining a naval balance in the Black Sea, including the provisions of the Montreux Convention and how Turkiye is applying them. This is posing an increasing dilemma for NATO as it ponders whether and how to assert principles of naval presence and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, with implications far beyond the immediate region. In balancing deterrence and risk, an incremental but also more determined stance on returning to the Black Sea may be needed.
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By giving voice to 15 Ukrainian refugees, aged 10–14, who sheltered in a refugee camp in Poland in March 2022, this qualitative study reveals how and why they used smartphones, to cope with the ...challenges they faced in the first days of the Russia–Ukraine war. The results showed that by the second week since the inception of the war, the children and adolescents already had created new practices of smartphone use, suitable for war. They extensively used their smartphones offline and online for three overarching purposes: in order to emotionally regulate themselves; make significant contacts with other people; and maintain identity. The current study shows the important role of avoidant and collective coping strategies in the lives of children and adolescents in war and contributes to a deeper and pragmatic understanding of their digital coping in war.
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The Bangla Language ranks seventh in the list of most spoken languages with 265 native and non-native speakers around the world and the second Indo-Aryan language after Hindi. However, the growth of ...research for tasks such as sentiment analysis (SA) in Bangla is relatively low compared to SA in the English language. It is because there are not enough high-quality publically available datasets for training language models for text classification tasks in Bangla. In this paper, we propose a Bangla annotated dataset for sentiment analysis on the ongoing Ukraine–Russia war. The dataset was developed by collecting Bangla comments from various videos of three prominent YouTube TV news channels of Bangladesh covering their report on the ongoing conflict. A total of 10,861 Bangla comments were collected and labeled with three polarity sentiments, namely Neutral, Pro-Ukraine (Positive), and Pro-Russia (Negative). A benchmark classifier was developed by experimenting with several transformer-based language models all pre-trained on unlabeled Bangla corpus. The models were fine-tuned using our procured dataset. Hyperparameter optimization was performed on all 5 transformer language models which include: BanglaBERT, XLM-RoBERTa-base, XLM-RoBERTa-large, Distil-mBERT and mBERT. Each model was evaluated and analyzed using several evaluation metrics which include: F1 score, accuracy, and AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). The best-performing model achieved the highest accuracy of 86% with 0.82 F1 score. Based on accuracy, F1 score and AIC, BanglaBERT outperforms baseline and all the other transformer-based classifiers.
