The study addresses the problem of identifying the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the situation on the grain market in Poland. The analysis covered price changes, the volume and structure of ...exports and imports. The effects of the crisis in the field of trade policy were assessed. The source of materials for the analyzes was the literature on the subject and empirical research conducted by various institutions dealing in trade in agricultural products. The information used in the work came from the European Agricultural Products Exchange (MATIF), the World Bank, market reports of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the European Commission. The most up-to-date reports from the United Nations, Reuters and European institutions were also used. It was found that the situation on the cereal market is extremely dynamic. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has caused many problems on EU agricultural markets, including grain markets. There was a significant increase in the prices of wheat and corn. There were no significant changes in foreign trade directions. In the structure of Polish grain exports and imports, corn and wheat are still the most important, and in 2022, the dominant place for wheat and corn purchases was Ukraine. However, the dominant direction of grain exports was Germany.
In the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and attempt to destabilize eastern Ukraine, the United States will have to reexamine the basic premises of its European policy. The requirement that NATO ...may have to build a more robust deterrence and defense posture in Eastern Europe would require the Army and Air Force to revisit their planning assumptions that have minimized the U.S. military commitments to the region since the end of the Cold War.
This paper examines the volatility of the oil price returns before and after the Great Financial crisis of 2008 using plain vanilla GARCH Model. Over a third of the world's energy consumption has ...been fueled by crude oil, making it one of the most significant fuel sources. Oil shocks have a variety of effects on macroeconomic activities. Sharp swings in the price of oil put off corporate investment because they increase uncertainty, which temporarily lowers output. Analyzing the trends in crude oil prices is essential for guiding the economy's policy and decision-making. This paper tries to forecast the volatility of oil prices for the future and map the trends in oil prices due to a radical shift in the geopolitical dynamics. We tried to create the volatility model for returns before and after 2008 crisis and find which model has more persistent long-term volatility. A plain vanilla GARCH model has been fitted for this purpose.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a significant increase in cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, with the energy sector being a primary target. The goal of these cyber attacks is ...to support military operations on the battlefield. Enhancing the resilience of the energy sector is a primary and urgent assignment for the security and defense sector of Ukraine.This study aims to identify the cyber resilience factors of critical energy infrastructure and their possible dependencies and analyze the causes of their occurrence.Accordingly, an analysis of the problems of the resilience of the critical energy infrastructure in Ukraine has been carried out. Based on this analysis, we have identified and studied some dependencies between cyber security for power energy infrastructure and other sectors, often referred to as cascade effects. By analyzing cause-and-effect relationships in power outages, the prerequisites for the emergence of negative factors affecting the resilience of critical infrastructure in the conditions of war have been determined.Using the obtained information about cascade effects, procedures have been proposed to enhance resilience. These include implementing processes for collecting and processing big data on cyber statistics, optimizing public-private cooperation, and organizing cyber training.The goal of these processes is to increase the level of cyber security for critical infrastructure. These processes are aimed at increasing the effectiveness of responding to cyber security crises in conditions of limited time and material resources.The experience of Ukraine in conducting such research is unique. This can become the basis for the development of models and architectures for the resilience of electric power systems in other countries.
In today's world, social media has become a platform through which people express their opinions and thoughts regarding various topics. Twitter is one such platform wherein people resort to ...expressing their opinions or portraying sentiments to the world. Today it has become easier to analyze mass opinion by using sentiment analysis. This paper investigates the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by analyzing opinionated tweets, and it seeks to understand the sentiments from a global and Indian perspective. Operation Ganga was carried out to evacuate Indian citizens from the war-hit region. Multinomial Naive Bayes classifier classified the tweets into positive, neutral, and negative categories. The paper employed NRCLex for emotion classification and aspect-based sentiment analysis to divide opinions into aspects and determine the sentiment associated with each element. For the study, 4,31,857 tweets were extracted, and the results of sentiment analysis depict that 44.09% users had negative sentiments followed by 33.378% users expressing positive sentiment and remaining 22.53% people were neutral in their tweets. Fear, anger and sadness were amongst the top emotions expressed in the negative tweets whereas the positive tweets expressed trust and anticipation that the war would end soon. Operation Ganga was carried out to evacuate Indian citizens from the war-hit region. An analysis was performed on 1542 tweets that were obtained for Operation Ganga. 74.5% of the users had positive sentiments about Operation Ganga, whereas 16.67% and 8.5% had negative and neutral sentiments respectively. The people trusted this evacuation process resulting in more positive sentiments. Fear of losing near and dear ones and fear of safety was the topmost concern for Indians and leadership was one of the topmost aspects tweeted in the positive sentiments. Thus, the overall results depict that the common man does not prefer war and is fearful of the outcomes. The government should hear the voice of the common man and plan strategies and decisions considering the common man's sentiments.
