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•Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica will lose great parts of their potential distribution range.•Winners of climatic warming in Europe have their distribution centroid below 48°N.•No ...species combines maximum areal extension as well as maximum growth.•However, some tree species shows a good trade-off between growth and distribution.•Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Q. cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia are interesting alternatives.
This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies).
We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 °C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate.
We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48°N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies.
The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conservation policies.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Question
When evaluating forests in terms of their biodiversity, distinctiveness and naturalness, the affinity of the constituent species to forests is a crucial parameter. Here we ask to what extent ...are vascular plant species associated with forests, and does species’ affinity to forests vary between European regions?
Location
Temperate and boreal forest biome of Northwestern and Central Europe.
Methods
We compiled EuForPlant, a new extensive list of forest vascular plant species in 24 regions spread across 13 European countries using vegetation databases and expert knowledge. Species were region‐specifically classified into four categories reflecting the degree of their affinity to forest habitats: 1.1, species of forest interiors; 1.2, species of forest edges and forest openings; 2.1, species that can be found in forest as well as open vegetation; and 2.2, species that can be found partly in forest, but mainly in open vegetation. An additional “O” category was distinguished, covering species typical for non‐forest vegetation.
Results
EuForPlant comprises 1,726 species, including 1,437 herb‐layer species, 159 shrubs, 107 trees, 19 lianas and 4 epiphytic parasites. Across regions, generalist forest species (with 450 and 777 species classified as 2.1 and 2.2, respectively) significantly outnumbered specialist forest species (with 250 and 137 species classified as 1.1 and 1.2, respectively). Even though the degree of shifting between the categories of forest affinity among regions was relatively low (on average, 17.5%), about one‐third of the forest species (especially 1.2 and 2.2) swapped categories in at least one of the study regions.
Conclusions
The proposed list can be used widely in vegetation science and global change ecology related to forest biodiversity and community dynamics. Shifting of forest affinity among regions emphasizes the importance of a continental‐scale forest plant species list with regional specificity.
We compiled a new list of forest vascular plant species spread in large parts of the European temperate and boreal forest biome using vegetation databases and expert knowledge. Species were region‐specifically classified into four categories reflecting the degree of their affinity to forest habitats. EuForPlant can be used widely in vegetation ecology related to forest biodiversity and community dynamics.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, FZAB, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Aim: We aimed to assess the relative influence of the historical and contemporary processes determining global patterns of current β-diversity. Specifically, we quantified the relative effects of ...contemporary climate and historical plate tectonics on β-diversity at different phylogenetic scales. Location: Global. Time Period: Contemporaneous. Major taxa studied: Mammals and birds. Methods: We analysed the current β-diversity patterns of birds and mammal assemblages at sequential depths in the phylogeny, that is, from the tips to deeper branches. This was done by slicing bird and mammal phylogenetic trees into 66 time slices of 1 Ma (from 0 to 65 Ma) and recording the branches within each slice. Using global distribution data, we defined the branches' geographical distribution as the union of the corresponding downstream species distributions. For each time slice, we (a) computed pairwise β-diversity across all the grid cells for the whole world and (b) estimated the correlation between this β-diversity matrix and contemporary climatic and geographical distances, and past geological distances, a proxy for plate tectonics. Results: Contemporary climate best explained the β-diversity of shallow branches (i.e., species). For mammals, the geographical isolation of landmasses generated by plate tectonics best explained the β-diversity of deeper branches, whereas the effect of past isolation was weaker for birds. Main conclusions: Our study shows that the relative influence of contemporary climate and plate tectonics on the β-diversity of bird and mammal assemblages varies along the phylogenetic time-scale. Our phylogenetic time-scale approach is general and flexible enough to be applied to a broad spectrum of study systems and spatial scales.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
During the last century, the progressive substitution of landraces with modern, high yielding varieties, led to a dramatic reduction of in situ conserved crop diversity in Europe. Nowadays there is ...limited and scattered information on where landraces are cultivated. To fill this gap and lay the groundwork for a regional landrace in situ conservation strategy, information on more than 19,335 geo-referenced landrace cultivation sites were collated from 14 European countries. According to collected data, landraces of 141 herbaceous and 48 tree species are cultivated across Europe: Italy (107 species), Greece (93), Portugal (45) and Spain (44) hold the highest numbers. Common bean, onion, tomato, potato and apple are the species of main interest in the covered countries. As from collected data, about 19.8% of landrace cultivation sites are in protected areas of the Natura 2000 network. We also got evidence that 16.7% and 19.3% of conservation varieties of agricultural species and vegetables are currently cultivated, respectively. Results of the GIS analysis allowed the identification of 1261 cells (25 km × 25 km) including all the cultivation sites, distributed across all European biogeographical regions. Data of this study constitute the largest ever produced database of in situ-maintained landraces and the first attempt to create an inventory for the entire Europe. The availability of such resource will serve for better planning of actions and development of policies to protect landraces and foster their use.
•19,335 geo-referenced landrace cultivation sites recorded in Europe.•189 crop species cultivated as landraces across 14 European countries.•19.8% of landrace cultivation sites in Natura 2000 protected areas•Landrace cultivation sites in all European biogeographical regions
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The association of an individual's genetic makeup with their response to drugs is referred to as pharmacogenomics. By understanding the relationship between genetic variants and drug efficacy or ...toxicity, we are able to optimize pharmacological therapy according to an individual's genotype. Pharmacogenomics research has historically suffered from bias and underrepresentation of people from certain ancestry groups and of the female sex. These biases can arise from factors such as drugs and indications studied, selection of study participants, and methods used to collect and analyze data. To examine the representation of biogeographical populations in pharmacogenomic data sets, we describe individuals involved in gene-drug response studies from PharmGKB, a leading repository of drug-gene annotations, and showcase
CYP2D6
, a gene that metabolizes approximately 25% of all prescribed drugs. We also show how the historical underrepresentation of females in clinical trials has led to significantly more adverse drug reactions in females than in males.
Aim
To define the major biogeographical regions and transition zones for freshwater fish species.
Taxon
Strictly freshwater species of actinopterygian fish (i.e. excluding marine and amphidromous ...fish families).
Methods
We based our bioregionalization on a global database of freshwater fish species occurrences in drainage basins, which, after filtering, includes 11,295 species in 2,581 basins. On the basis of this dataset, we generated a bipartite (basin‐species) network upon which we applied a hierarchical clustering algorithm (the Map Equation) to detect regions. We tested the robustness of regions with a sensitivity analysis. We identified transition zones between major regions with the participation coefficient, indicating the degree to which a basin has species from multiple regions.
Results
Our bioregionalization scheme showed two major supercontinental regions (Old World and New World, 50% species of the world and 99.96% endemics each). Nested within these two supercontinental regions lie six major regions (Nearctic, Neotropical, Palearctic, Ethiopian, Sino‐Oriental and Australian) with extremely high degrees of endemism (above 96% except for the Palearctic). Transition zones between regions were of limited extent compared to other groups of organisms. We identified numerous subregions with high diversity and endemism in tropical areas (e.g. Neotropical), and a few large subregions with low diversity and endemism at high latitudes (e.g. Palearctic).
Main conclusions
Our results suggest that regions of freshwater fish species were shaped by events of vicariance and geodispersal which were similar to other groups, but with freshwater‐specific processes of isolation that led to extremely high degrees of endemism (far exceeding endemism rates of other continental vertebrates), specific boundary locations and limited extents of transition zones. The identified bioregions and transition zones of freshwater fish species reflect the strong isolation of freshwater fish faunas for the past 10–20 million years. The extremely high endemism and diversity of freshwater fish fauna raises many questions about the biogeographical consequences of current introductions and extinctions.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Distribution data form the basis of the study of zoo-geography, which has applications in, inter alia, ecology and conservation. Written records were used to estimate the distribution patterns of ...some of the medium- to large-sized terrestrial mammals in central, southern and western South Africa, and neighbouring Lesotho, during the early historical period (late 1400 s to the 1920s). The sources of these records comprise mainly published or unpublished letters, journals, diaries or books written by literate pioneers - notably various missionaries, explorers, travellers, naturalists, military personnel, big game hunters and agro-pastoralists. The classification (according to record type) of the written records in key publications was standardised, and records overlooked by them are taken into account. Interpretation of the spatial patterns provided by the written records was aided by reference to supporting information, in the form of qualifying palaeontological, zoo-archaeological and museum records. Written records of acceptable quality are shown, together with supporting records (where applicable), on a series of species occurrence maps, which also depict the biomes that are represented in the study area. The information on these maps is interpreted, together with relevant information in the source texts and a map of the bioregions that constitute the biomes in question, to estimate distribution patterns that prevailed during the period under study. Data are presented for 27 genera, 36 species and 2 subspecies, comprising 7 carnivores and 30 herbivores. Despite the limitations associated with the use of written records, the information provided is considered to offer a realistic distribution pattern for most of the taxa covered. The use of supporting records is justified, since the majority of these corroborate the ranges derived from the written records. The present study enhances our knowledge of distribution patterns for these larger mammal species in a large part of the southern African sub-region during the early historical period. It also provides a first attempt to describe the sub-regional scale, historical, distribution patterns within the context of the broad biogeographical characteristics of the area in question. There is a need to extend the coverage achieved by this study to include the remaining approx. 30% of "South Africa", i.e. the region incorporating South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland, and also the area incorporated by the countries of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. This level of coverage will permit enhanced definition of historical distribution patterns for some larger mammals in the southern African sub-region. There is also a need to better understand the drivers, as well as the implications, of the observed changes in the distribution of the larger mammals since the start of the historical period.
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BFBNIB, GIS, IJS, KISLJ, NUK, PNG, UL, UM, UPUK
Aim
To map and interpret floristic and geoecological patterns across the Amazon basin by combining extensive field data with basin‐wide Landsat imagery and climatic data.
Location
Amazonia.
Taxon
...Ground truth data on ferns and lycophytes; remote sensing results reflect forest canopy properties.
Methods
We used field plot data to assess main ecological gradients across Amazonia and to relate floristic ordination axes to soil base cation concentration, Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) climatic variables and reflectance values from a basin‐wide Landsat image composite with generalized linear models. Ordination axes were then predicted across all Amazonia using Landsat and CHELSA, and a regional subdivision was obtained using k‐medoid classification.
Results
The primary floristic gradient was strongly related to base cation concentration in the soil, and the secondary gradient to climatic variables. The Landsat image composite revealed a tapestry of broad‐scale variation in canopy reflectance characteristics across Amazonia. Ordination axis scores predicted using Landsat and CHELSA variables produced spatial patterns consistent with existing knowledge on soils, geology and vegetation, but also suggested new floristic patterns. The clearest dichotomy was between central Amazonia and the peripheral areas, and the available data supported a classification into at least eight subregions.
Main conclusions
Landsat data are capable of predicting soil‐related species compositional patterns of understorey ferns and lycophytes across the Amazon basin with surprisingly high accuracy. Although the exact floristic relationships may differ among plant groups, the observed ecological gradients must be relevant for other plants as well, since surface reflectance recorded by satellites is mostly influenced by the tree canopy. This opens exciting prospects for species distribution modelling, conservation planning, and biogeographical and ecological studies on Amazonian biota. Our maps provide a preliminary geoecological subdivision of Amazonia that can now be tested and refined using field data of other plant groups and from hitherto unsampled areas.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
In Europe, regional climate change prospects indicate the urgency of adapting to extreme weather events. While increasing temperature trends have already been detected, in the last decades, the ...adoption of a European heatwave (HW) early-warning index is not yet consensual, partially due to the significant number of alternative algorithms, in some cases adjusted to the measurement of sector-specific impacts (as per the Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-specific Indices (ET-SCI)). In particular, the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) has been shown to accurately predict heat-related human health outcomes, in mid-latitude climates, provided that local summer exposure to excess heat is mostly driven by extreme air temperatures, with a lower contribution from relative humidity. Here, annual summaries of EHF-based HW detection were calculated for the European region, using daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the homogenised version of the E-OBS gridded dataset. Annual HW frequencies, duration, mean magnitude, maximum amplitude, and severity were subject to climatology and trend analysis across the European biogeographical regions, considering the 1961–1990 period as the baseline reference for anomaly detection in the more recent (1991–2018) decades. As HW-dependent morbidity/mortality affects mostly the elderly, an EHF-based HW Exposure Index was also calculated, by multiplying the recent probability of severe events per the number of people aged 65, or more, in the European Functional Urban Areas (FUAs). Results show that recent historical EHF-based patterns diverge across European Biogeographical regions, with a clear latitudinal gradient. Both the historical mean and recent trends point towards the greater exposure in the southern European Mediterranean region, driven by the significant increase of HW frequency, duration and maximum severity, especially in the last 3 decades; conversely, annual maximum EHF intensities (i.e., greatest deviations from the local 90th daily mean temperature) are mostly found in the northern and/or high altitude Boreal, Alpine and Continental regions, as a consequence of the latitudinal effect of local climatology on the HWM/HWA indices (this also translates into greater magnitudes of change, in this regions). Nonetheless, by simultaneously considering the probability of Severe HW occurrence in the last three decades, together with the log transformation of people aged 65 or more, results show that greater HW Exposure Indices affect FUAs across the whole Europe, irrespective of its regional climate, suggesting that more meaningful vulnerability assessments, early warning and adaptation measures should be prioritized accordingly.
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•Excess Heat Factor (EHF) is a health-relevant heatwave (HW) indicator.•EHF climatology and trend analysis in conducted for European HW.•HW events are shown to have been increasing significantly in most regions.•HW severity is increasing the most in the Mediterranean region.•The probability of severe HW is greater than 50% in most metropolitan areas.•An HW Exposure index is provided for all European Functional Urban Areas.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Aim
We evaluated the relative importance of geographical and environment variables for taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional β‐diversity of phyllostomid bats along the entire Amazon biome and ...specifically in the lowlands.
Location
Amazon biome.
Taxon
Chiroptera.
Methods
We carried out a bibliographic review and compiled a wide and unprecedented database of 106 phyllostomid bat species at 102 sites throughout the Amazon biome. For all possible pairs of sites in both datasets, we estimated the Jaccard pairwise dissimilarity, that is, β‐diversity, considering its three dimensions—taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional—for its two components—turnover (substitution of species) and differences in species richness. The association between dissimilarity measurements and geographical and environment variables was assessed using multiple regressions on distance matrices (MRM).
Results
We found that turnover and differences in species richness had similar contributions to the taxonomic β‐diversity. However, for phylogenetic and functional β‐diversity, lineages and functions richness differences contribute slightly more than turnover for total β‐diversity. In the lowlands, species, lineages and functions richness differences were slightly higher than turnover for all diversity dimensions. When accounting for all the sites, elevation was the main predictor of phyllostomid bats' taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional turnover. For lowland sites, ecoregions was the main (but relatively weak) predictor associated with all β‐diversity dimensions.
Main conclusions
Analysis of filtering sites according to elevation revealed that species in the Amazonian lowlands are taxonomically and phylogenetically different from species in the Andes, and present taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional redundancy between assemblages. When accounting for the whole range of distribution of bats, results showed the predominant effect of elevation over other geographical and environmental predictors. This indicates that the diversity of good dispersers such as bats is more affected by specialisation along environment and climatic gradients than by geographical barriers throughout the Amazon biome.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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