Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO
) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth
, thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the ...atmospheric CO
concentration
. Although evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO
fertilization effect on biomass growth
, it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO
in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands
, photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO
without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO
unclear
. Here using data from the first ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO
Enrichment (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, we constructed a comprehensive ecosystem carbon budget to track the fate of carbon as the forest responded to four years of eCO
exposure. We show that, although the eCO
treatment of +150 parts per million (+38 per cent) above ambient levels induced a 12 per cent (+247 grams of carbon per square metre per year) increase in carbon uptake through gross primary production, this additional carbon uptake did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level. Instead, the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for half of the total uptake surplus. Our results call into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced under eCO
, and challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO
fertilization as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests.
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How should no be putting a price on carbon, particularly In developing countries? This special issue of the Climate Policy journal takes up this contested issue and examines how different economic ...instruments might apply in developing countries, with a special locus on South Africa. The papers included In this volume address a variety of themes in this area: emissions trading, carbon taxes, fiscal and non-fiscal instruments, policy and institutional dimensions, and lessons from the Clean Development Mechanism. Presenting the very latest research, this volume will be of interest to academics and policymakers in economics, policy and development.
Although the terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 25 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO
) emissions, the rate of land carbon uptake remains highly uncertain, leading to uncertainties in ...climate projections
. Understanding the factors that limit or drive land carbon storage is therefore important for improving climate predictions. One potential limiting factor for land carbon uptake is soil moisture, which can reduce gross primary production through ecosystem water stress
, cause vegetation mortality
and further exacerbate climate extremes due to land-atmosphere feedbacks
. Previous work has explored the impact of soil-moisture availability on past carbon-flux variability
. However, the influence of soil-moisture variability and trends on the long-term carbon sink and the mechanisms responsible for associated carbon losses remain uncertain. Here we use the data output from four Earth system models
from a series of experiments to analyse the responses of terrestrial net biome productivity to soil-moisture changes, and find that soil-moisture variability and trends induce large CO
fluxes (about two to three gigatons of carbon per year; comparable with the land carbon sink itself
) throughout the twenty-first century. Subseasonal and interannual soil-moisture variability generate CO
as a result of the nonlinear response of photosynthesis and net ecosystem exchange to soil-water availability and of the increased temperature and vapour pressure deficit caused by land-atmosphere interactions. Soil-moisture variability reduces the present land carbon sink, and its increase and drying trends in several regions are expected to reduce it further. Our results emphasize that the capacity of continents to act as a future carbon sink critically depends on the nonlinear response of carbon fluxes to soil moisture and on land-atmosphere interactions. This suggests that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate may not be sustained past the middle of the century and could result in accelerated atmospheric CO
growth.
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Limiting the rise in global mean temperatures relies on reducing carbon dioxide (CO
) emissions and on the removal of CO
by land carbon sinks. China is currently the single largest emitter of CO
, ...responsible for approximately 27 per cent (2.67 petagrams of carbon per year) of global fossil fuel emissions in 2017
. Understanding of Chinese land biosphere fluxes has been hampered by sparse data coverage
, which has resulted in a wide range of a posteriori estimates of flux. Here we present recently available data on the atmospheric mole fraction of CO
, measured from six sites across China during 2009 to 2016. Using these data, we estimate a mean Chinese land biosphere sink of -1.11 ± 0.38 petagrams of carbon per year during 2010 to 2016, equivalent to about 45 per cent of our estimate of annual Chinese anthropogenic emissions over that period. Our estimate reflects a previously underestimated land carbon sink over southwest China (Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces) throughout the year, and over northeast China (especially Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces) during summer months. These provinces have established a pattern of rapid afforestation of progressively larger regions
, with provincial forest areas increasing by between 0.04 million and 0.44 million hectares per year over the past 10 to 15 years. These large-scale changes reflect the expansion of fast-growing plantation forests that contribute to timber exports and the domestic production of paper
. Space-borne observations of vegetation greenness show a large increase with time over this study period, supporting the timing and increase in the land carbon sink over these afforestation regions.
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Year-to-year changes in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems have an essential role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
. It remains uncertain to what extent temperature and ...water availability can explain these variations at the global scale
. Here we use factorial climate model simulations
and show that variability in soil moisture drives 90 per cent of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake, mainly through its impact on photosynthesis. We find that most of this ecosystem response occurs indirectly as soil moisture-atmosphere feedback amplifies temperature and humidity anomalies and enhances the direct effects of soil water stress. The strength of this feedback mechanism explains why coupled climate models indicate that soil moisture has a dominant role
, which is not readily apparent from land surface model simulations and observational analyses
. These findings highlight the need to account for feedback between soil and atmospheric dryness when estimating the response of the carbon cycle to climatic change globally
, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the response of the ecosystem to droughts
. Our results show that most of the global variability in modelled land carbon uptake is driven by temperature and vapour pressure deficit effects that are controlled by soil moisture.
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Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide ...emissions
. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades
. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests
. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature
. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass
reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.
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Global Carbon Budget 2019 Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; O'Sullivan, Michael ...
Earth system science data,
12/2019, Volume:
11, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to ...better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).
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The balance between photosynthetic organic carbon production and respiration controls atmospheric composition and climate
. The majority of organic carbon is respired back to carbon dioxide in the ...biosphere, but a small fraction escapes remineralization and is preserved over geological timescales
. By removing reduced carbon from Earth's surface, this sequestration process promotes atmospheric oxygen accumulation
and carbon dioxide removal
. Two major mechanisms have been proposed to explain organic carbon preservation: selective preservation of biochemically unreactive compounds
and protection resulting from interactions with a mineral matrix
. Although both mechanisms can operate across a range of environments and timescales, their global relative importance on 1,000-year to 100,000-year timescales remains uncertain
. Here we present a global dataset of the distributions of organic carbon activation energy and corresponding radiocarbon ages in soils, sediments and dissolved organic carbon. We find that activation energy distributions broaden over time in all mineral-containing samples. This result requires increasing bond-strength diversity, consistent with the formation of organo-mineral bonds
but inconsistent with selective preservation. Radiocarbon ages further reveal that high-energy, mineral-bound organic carbon persists for millennia relative to low-energy, unbound organic carbon. Our results provide globally coherent evidence for the proposed
importance of mineral protection in promoting organic carbon preservation. We suggest that similar studies of bond-strength diversity in ancient sediments may reveal how and why organic carbon preservation-and thus atmospheric composition and climate-has varied over geological time.
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