Global Carbon Budget 2019 Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jones, Matthew W.; O'Sullivan, Michael ...
Earth system science data,
12/2019, Volume:
11, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to ...better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).
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The balance between photosynthetic organic carbon production and respiration controls atmospheric composition and climate
. The majority of organic carbon is respired back to carbon dioxide in the ...biosphere, but a small fraction escapes remineralization and is preserved over geological timescales
. By removing reduced carbon from Earth's surface, this sequestration process promotes atmospheric oxygen accumulation
and carbon dioxide removal
. Two major mechanisms have been proposed to explain organic carbon preservation: selective preservation of biochemically unreactive compounds
and protection resulting from interactions with a mineral matrix
. Although both mechanisms can operate across a range of environments and timescales, their global relative importance on 1,000-year to 100,000-year timescales remains uncertain
. Here we present a global dataset of the distributions of organic carbon activation energy and corresponding radiocarbon ages in soils, sediments and dissolved organic carbon. We find that activation energy distributions broaden over time in all mineral-containing samples. This result requires increasing bond-strength diversity, consistent with the formation of organo-mineral bonds
but inconsistent with selective preservation. Radiocarbon ages further reveal that high-energy, mineral-bound organic carbon persists for millennia relative to low-energy, unbound organic carbon. Our results provide globally coherent evidence for the proposed
importance of mineral protection in promoting organic carbon preservation. We suggest that similar studies of bond-strength diversity in ancient sediments may reveal how and why organic carbon preservation-and thus atmospheric composition and climate-has varied over geological time.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Gross primary productivity (GPP), the gross uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by plant photosynthesis, is the primary driver of the land carbon sink, which presently removes around one quarter of the ...anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year. GPP, however, cannot be measured directly and the resulting uncertainty undermines our ability to project the magnitude of the future land carbon sink. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been proposed as an independent proxy for GPP as it diffuses into leaves in a fashion very similar to CO2, but in contrast to the latter is generally not emitted. Here we use concurrent ecosystem‐scale flux measurements of CO2 and COS at four European biomes for a joint constraint on CO2 flux partitioning. The resulting GPP estimates generally agree with classical approaches relying exclusively on CO2 fluxes but indicate a systematic underestimation under low light conditions, demonstrating the importance of using multiple approaches for constraining present‐day GPP.
Plain Language Summary
Plants are Earth's biggest contributor for cleaning the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and remove around one quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans each year. However, this contribution cannot be measured directly and has to be inferred or modelled on the basis of related parameters. This introduces large uncertainties, which in turn undermine our ability to accurately create future climate scenarios. Recent research revealed that the trace gas carbonyl sulfide is taken up by plants in a very similar way as carbon dioxide and offers us an additional way of quantifying the carbon dioxide uptake by photosynthesis. Here we use joint measurements of the carbon dioxide and carbonyl sulfide exchange to infer plant carbon dioxide uptake, demonstrating the advantage of using multiple approaches. We apply our method at four major European ecosystems and show that previous approaches, based solely on carbon dioxide, may have underestimated the plant carbon dioxide uptake.
Key Points
Traditionally gross primary productivity is inferred from ecosystem‐scale CO2 flux measurements
The proposed joint assimilation of CO2 and COS flux measurements avoids the need to specify the leaf relative uptake rate of COS a priori
The additional information content of ecosystem‐scale COS flux measurements increases inferred gross primary productivity estimates
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Harmful algal blooms threaten the water quality of many eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes and cause severe ecological and economic damage worldwide. Dense blooms often deplete the dissolved CO2 ...concentration and raise pH. Yet, quantitative prediction of the feedbacks between phytoplankton growth, CO2 drawdown and the inorganic carbon chemistry of aquatic ecosystems has received surprisingly little attention. Here, we develop a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pH and alkalinity during phytoplankton bloom development. We tested the model in chemostat experiments with the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa at different CO2 levels. The experiments showed that dense blooms sequestered large amounts of atmospheric CO2, not only by their own biomass production but also by inducing a high pH and alkalinity that enhanced the capacity for DIC storage in the system. We used the model to explore how phytoplankton blooms of eutrophic waters will respond to rising CO2 levels. The model predicts that (1) dense phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters can deplete the dissolved CO2 concentration to limiting levels and raise the pH over a relatively wide range of atmospheric CO2 conditions, (2) rising atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance phytoplankton blooms in low- and moderately alkaline waters with high nutrient loads, and (3) above some threshold, rising atmospheric CO2 will alleviate phytoplankton blooms from carbon limitation, resulting in less intense CO2 depletion and a lesser increase in pH. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model predictions were qualitatively robust. Quantitatively, the predictions were sensitive to variation in lake depth, DIC input and CO2 gas transfer across the air-water interface, but relatively robust to variation in the carbon uptake mechanisms of phytoplankton. In total, these findings warn that rising CO2 levels may result in a marked intensification of phytoplankton blooms in eutrophic and hypertrophic waters.
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Global Carbon Budget 2016 Quéré, Corinne Le; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G. ...
Earth system science data,
11/2016, Volume:
8, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better ...understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.
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This volume provides a thorough, non-specialist introduction to technologies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels during power generation and other energy-intensive ...industrial processes, such as steelmaking. Extensively revised and updated, it provides detailed coverage of key carbon dioxide capture methods along with an examination of the most promising techniques for carbon storage.
A Call for Standards in the CO 2 Value Chain Neerup, Randi; Løge, Isaac A; Helgason, Kári ...
Environmental science & technology,
12/2022, Volume:
56, Issue:
24
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
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IJS, KILJ, NUK, PNG, UL, UM
Climate change policy and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are currently discussed at all scales, ranging from the Kyoto Protocol to the increasingly frequent advertisement of ''carbon ...neutrality'' in consumer products. However, the only policy option usually considered is the reduction of direct emissions. Another potential policy tool, currently neglected, is the reduction of indirect emissions, i.e., the emissions embodied in goods and services, or the payments thereof.
This book addresses the accounting of indirect carbon emissions (as embodied in international trade) within the framework of input-output analysis and derives an indicator of environmental responsibility as the average of consumer and producer responsibility. A global multi-regional input-output model is built, using databases on international trade and greenhouse gas emissions, from which embodied carbon emissions and carbon responsibilities are obtained.
Carbon Responsibility and Embodied Emissions consists of a theoretical part, concerning the choice of environmental indicators, and an applied part, reporting an environmental multi-regional input-output model. It will be of particular interest to postgraduate students and researchers in Ecological Economics, Environmental Input-Output Analysis, and Industrial Ecology.
João F. D. Rodrigues is currently a Researcher at the Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research (IN+), Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), Lisbon, Portugal. Alexandra P.S. Marques is currently a MIT Portugal Program PhD student at IST in the area of Sustainable Energy Systems. Tiago M. D. Domingos is an Assistant Professor at the Environment and Energy Scientific Area, DEM, IST, and a Researcher at IN+.
1. Introduction 2. Accounting indirect emissions 3. Carbon indicators 4. Carbon responsibility 5. Multi-regional IO model 6. Carbon responsibility of world regions 7. Discussion
The ocean's ability to sequester carbon away from the atmosphere exerts an important control on global climate. The biological pump drives carbon storage in the deep ocean and is thought to function ...via gravitational settling of organic particles from surface waters. However, the settling flux alone is often insufficient to balance mesopelagic carbon budgets or to meet the demands of subsurface biota. Here we review additional biological and physical mechanisms that inject suspended and sinking particles to depth. We propose that these 'particle injection pumps' probably sequester as much carbon as the gravitational pump, helping to close the carbon budget and motivating further investigation into their environmental control.
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EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
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