•NDVI change in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPEN) was analyzed.•Human activities dominated trends of NDVI in FPEN after 2000.•Human activities were responsible for increased NDVI ...in southwestern FPEN.
Separating anthropogenic contributions from observed vegetation change is helpful for improving our understanding of the effects of human activities on regional ecosystems. In this study, using 1982–2015 GIMMS3g normal difference vegetation index (observed NDVI), monthly climatic variables and land use data, we investigated anthropogenic contributions on vegetation change in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPEN). Specifically, given that large-area ecological engineering was practiced since 1999 and large-area land use changes were recorded after 2000, we assumed that human activities only had little impact before 1999. Based on this assumption, we developed a climate-based NDVI model (also termed as TPR-based NDVI model) by using 1982–1999 observed NDVI and assembled monthly precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Subsequently, the TPR-based NDVI model as well as the residual analysis method were used to separate anthropogenic contributions from observed NDVI in the period of 2000–2015. Results showed that most FPEN performed a greening trend for the period of 1982–2015. Yet a browning trend was also found in central and northern FPEN. The browning trend was largely related to changes of observed NDVI after 2000. Spatial statistics for the best related climatic variable with observed NDVI displayed that temperature, precipitation and solar radiation separately accounted for 42.45%, 31.05% and 26.50% of FPEN, implying their similar importance for vegetation growth in space. Importantly, this study found that anthropogenic contributions dominated trends of observed NDVI over FPEN. Human activities significantly increased NDVI in western and southeastern FPEN (p < 0.05), but small decreased NDVI was also observed in central and northeastern FPEN. The findings of this study suggest that applications of anthropogenic ecological engineering and associated conservation measures should be suitable for features of eco-climatic zones.
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Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last ∼1800 years. The δ18O and δ13C values vary ...from −4.3‰ to −7.6‰ and −3.4‰ to −9.1‰ respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite δ18O values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830–910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600–1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2‰ shift in δ18O values towards the end of MWP (∼1080–1160 AD) and after its termination from ∼1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (∼1440–1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in δ18O and δ13C values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area.
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The impacts of climate change are already being felt. Learning how to live with these impacts is a priority for human development. In this context, it is too easy to see adaptation as a narrowly ...defensive task – protecting core assets or functions from the risks of climate change. A more profound engagement, which sees climate change risks as a product and driver of social as well as natural systems, and their interaction, is called for.
Adaptation to Climate Change argues that, without care, adaptive actions can deny the deeper political and cultural roots that call for significant change in social and political relations if human vulnerability to climate change associated risk is to be reduced. This book presents a framework for making sense of the range of choices facing humanity, structured around resilience (stability), transition (incremental social change and the exercising of existing rights) and transformation (new rights claims and changes in political regimes). The resilience-transition-transformation framework is supported by three detailed case study chapters. These also illustrate the diversity of contexts where adaption is unfolding, from organizations to urban governance and the national polity.
This text is the first comprehensive analysis of the social dimensions to climate change adaptation. Clearly written in an engaging style, it provides detailed theoretical and empirical chapters and serves as an invaluable reference for undergraduate and postgraduate students interested in climate change, geography and development studies.
Mark Pelling is Reader in Geography at King’s College London and before this at the University of Liverpool and University of Guyana. His research and teaching focus on human vulnerability and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change. He has served as a lead author with the IPCC and as a consultant for UNDP, DFID and UN-HABITAT.
Part 1: Framework and Theory 1. Intellectual and Policy Context 2. Understanding Adaptation Part 2: The Resilience-Transition-Transformation Framework 3. Adaptation as Resilience: Social Learning and Self-Organization 4. Adaptation as Transition: Risk and Governance 5. Adaptation as Transformation: Risk Society, Human Security and the Social Contract Part 3: Living with Climate Change 6. Adaptation Within Organizations 7. Adaptation as Urban Risk Discourse and Governance 8. Adaptation as National Political Response to Disaster Part 4: Adapting with Climate Change 9. Conclusion: Adapting with Climate Change
We present a microlevel study to simultaneously investigate the effects of variations in temperature and precipitation along with sudden natural disasters to infer their relative influence on ...migration that is likely permanent. The study is made possible by the availability of household panel data from Indonesia with an exceptional tracking rate combined with frequent occurrence of natural disasters and significant climatic variations, thus providing a quasi-experiment to examine the influence of environment on migration. Using data on 7,185 households followed over 15 y, we analyze whole-household, province-to-province migration, which allows us to understand the effects of environmental factors on permanent moves that may differ from temporary migration. The results suggest that permanent migration is influenced by climatic variations, whereas episodic disasters tend to have much smaller or no impact on such migration. In particular, temperature has a nonlinear effect on migration such that above 25 °C, a rise in temperature is related to an increase in outmigration, potentially through its impact on economic conditions. We use these results to estimate the impact of projected temperature increases on future permanent migration. Though precipitation also has a similar nonlinear effect on migration, the effect is smaller than that of temperature, underscoring the importance of using an expanded set of climatic factors as predictors of migration. These findings on the minimal influence of natural disasters and precipitation on permanent moves supplement previous findings on the significant role of these variables in promoting temporary migration.
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Climate change and dead zones Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B
Global change biology,
April 2015, Volume:
21, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co‐occurring threats of climate change and oxygen‐depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity ...of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea‐level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.
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