We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate international ...reserves and receive net private inflows. We study a two-sector, tradable and non-tradable, small open economy. There is a growth externality in the tradable sector and agents have imperfect access to international financial markets. By accumulating foreign reserves, the government induces a real exchange rate depreciation and a reallocation of production towards the tradable sector that boosts growth. Financial frictions generate imperfect substitutability between private and public debt flows so that private agents do not perfectly offset the government policy. The possibility of using reserves to provide liquidity during crises amplifies the positive impact of reserve accumulation on growth. The optimal reserve management entails a fast rate of reserve accumulation, as well as higher growth and larger current account surpluses compared to the economy with no policy intervention.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
The panic of 2007–2008 was a run on the sale and repurchase market (the repo market), which is a very large, short-term market that provides financing for a wide range of securitization activities ...and financial institutions. Repo transactions are collateralized, frequently with securitized bonds. We refer to the combination of securitization plus repo finance as “securitized banking” and argue that these activities were at the nexus of the crisis. We use a novel data set that includes credit spreads for hundreds of securitized bonds to trace the path of the crisis from subprime-housing related assets into markets that had no connection to housing. We find that changes in the LIB-OIS spread, a proxy for counterparty risk, were strongly correlated with changes in credit spreads and repo rates for securitized bonds. These changes implied higher uncertainty about bank solvency and lower values for repo collateral. Concerns about the liquidity of markets for the bonds used as collateral led to increases in repo haircuts, that is the amount of collateral required for any given transaction. With declining asset values and increasing haircuts, the US banking system was effectively insolvent for the first time since the Great Depression.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Abstract Background Crisis telephone helplines are an integral part of community suicide prevention. Despite high male suicide rates, men’s experiences of these services are poorly understood. The ...current study explored men’s perspectives of their interactions with helpline counsellors to understand how their engagement on helplines can be enhanced. Method Sixteen men (19–71 years) who had previously used a mental health or crisis helpline in Australia completed individual semi-structured interviews about their experiences. Data were analysed using interpretive descriptive methodologies. Results Two themes derived from the data related to how men engaged with counsellors on helpline services. First, men emphasized the importance of helpline counsellors creating and maintaining an authentic connection across the call, providing suggestions for strategies to secure connection. Second, men discussed how counsellors can facilitate outcomes through offering space for their narratives and aiding in referrals to other support services when required. Conclusions Findings highlight the value of crisis helplines for men’s suicide prevention services while identifying target areas to improve engagement. We discuss implications for the findings including suggestions for gender-sensitive care within crisis helplines.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper examines the dynamic frequency co-movements and volatility spillovers between crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas futures markets during the global financial crisis ...and European crisis (GFC & ESDC), recent oil price crash, and COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We apply the spillover index by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and wavelet methods. The results show significant risk spillovers among the leading energy futures markets. Moreover, the spillovers are intensified during the financial crisis, oil crisis and COVID-19 outbreak. WTI crude oil is the highest net contributor of volatility spillovers to the other markets, whereas the other energy markets are net receivers of spillovers for the different sub periods, with the exception of natural gas before the GFC and during COVID-19 as well as Brent oil during COVID-19. Furthermore, the results show significant integration and multiscale co-movements among energy futures. Natural gas asset offers better diversification benefits to crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and gas oil under short term. Finally, the diversification gains diminish as scales rise. The optimal weight, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness are time varying and crises-sensitive. These findings have significant implications for energy traders and policymakers to inform their decision-making.
•We examine the spillovers among natural gas, crude oil, gas oil, gasoline, and heating oil markets.•The impacts of global financial crisis, oil price crash, and COVID-19 pandemic are accounted for.•We find evidence of integration and multiscale co-movements among energy futures.•The COVID-19 outbreak and oil crisis intensify the spillovers among energy futures.•Natural gas asset offers better diversification benefits to petroleum markets under the short term.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
In May 2008, the Commission released the growth report: strategies for sustained growth and inclusive development. At that time, the financial systems of the United States and Europe were under ...stress. Commodity prices were also spiking, posing particular difficulties for developing countries because of the impact on the poor and on potential future inflation. But no one foresaw the full magnitude of the crisis that erupted in the fall of 2008, more than a year ago. The crisis was a destructive malfunction of the financial sectors of the advanced economies, which spread rapidly to the real economy and to the rest of the globe. Even countries far from the source of the crisis had to cope with capital volatility, tight credit, and rapidly falling trade. At the request of several members of the Commission, Commission held a workshop on the crisis and its implications for developing countries. Commission followed standard procedure of asking for help and insight from a distinguished group of scholars, analysts, and practitioners. This report is an outgrowth of that process. It is an attempt to look at the crisis and its aftermath from the point of view of developing countries. Commission wanted to assess the impact of these events, and determine if the growth strategies recommended needed major revision, or some adaptive fine tuning. Commission also wanted to think more carefully about resilience, and what it might mean for successful sustained growth. The report that follows is a summary of thinking on these and related questions.
Risk is endogenous. It builds up during booms, as measured risks fall and individual market participants increase their risk-taking. Risk is then manifested during downturns, as measured risks rise ...and individual market participants recoil from risk taking. Prices (including the market price of risk) therefore play a dual role: they are simultaneously a reflection of market participants’ actions as well as an imperative for their actions. This book is organized around several practical examples in financial economics that illustrate these principles.
The IMF's response to the global crisis of 2008–9 marked a significant change from its past policies. The Fund provided relatively large amounts of credit quickly with limited conditions and accepted ...the use of capital controls. This book traces the evolution of the IMF's actions to promote international financial stability from the Bretton Woods era through the most recent crisis. The analysis includes an examination of the IMF's crisis management activities during the debt crisis of the 1980s, the upheavals in emerging markets in the 1990s and early 2000s, and the ongoing European crisis. The dominant influence of the United States and other advanced economies in the governance of the IMF is also described, and the replacement of the G7 nations by the more inclusive G20, which have promised to give the IMF a role in their mutual assessment of policies while undertaking reforms of the IMF's governance.
Examples of crises involving multinationals can be found in the media around the world on a regular basis. Despite the importance of this topic, the state of the literature in the area of global ...crisis management has yet to be explored. Incorporating a commonly used three-stage approach describing crisis management as involving three phases - the pre-crisis phase (prevention and preparation), the crisis phase (response), and the post-crisis phase (learning and revision) - we briefly review the literature in global crisis management. We then introduce three special issue articles. Finally, we suggest future areas for research on the topic of global crisis management.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
The world is in a second nuclear age in which regional powers play an increasingly prominent role. These states have small nuclear arsenals, often face multiple active conflicts, and sometimes have ...weak institutions. How do these nuclear states-and potential future ones-manage their nuclear forces and influence international conflict? Examining the reasoning and deterrence consequences of regional power nuclear strategies, this book demonstrates that these strategies matter greatly to international stability and it provides new insights into conflict dynamics across important areas of the world such as the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia.
Vipin Narang identifies the diversity of regional power nuclear strategies and describes in detail the posture each regional power has adopted over time. Developing a theory for the sources of regional power nuclear strategies, he offers the first systematic explanation of why states choose the postures they do and under what conditions they might shift strategies. Narang then analyzes the effects of these choices on a state's ability to deter conflict. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, he shows that, contrary to a bedrock article of faith in the canon of nuclear deterrence, the acquisition of nuclear weapons does not produce a uniform deterrent effect against opponents. Rather, some postures deter conflict more successfully than others.
Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Eraconsiders the range of nuclear choices made by regional powers and the critical challenges they pose to modern international security.
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