Demand response is increasingly attracting policy attention. It involves changing electricity demand at different times based on grid conditions, which could help to integrate variable renewable ...generation and new electric loads associated with decarbonisation. Residential consumers could offer a substantial new source of demand-side flexibility. However, while there is considerable evidence that at least some residential users engage with at least some forms of demand response, there is also considerable variation in user engagement. Better understanding this variation could help to predict demand response potential, and to engage and protect consumers participating in demand response. Based on a systematic review of international demand response trials, programmes and surveys, we identify motivations for participation, and barriers and enablers to engagement including familiarity and trust, perceived risk and control, complexity and effort, and consumer characteristics and routines. We then discuss how these factors relate to the features of different demand response products and services. While the complexity of the evidence makes it difficult to draw unequivocal conclusions, the findings of this review could contribute to guide early efforts to deploy residential demand response more widely.
•Residential demand response (DR) trials, programmes and surveys are systematically reviewed.•Motivations, barriers and enablers for engagement are identified.•Factors include familiarity & trust; perceived risk & control; complexity & effort.•These are discussed in relation to DR features, DR delivery, and user heterogeneity.•Implications are suggested for design and delivery of residential demand response.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
If demand side management in electricity grid is a well known concept, the application to district heating systems (i.e. modifying the thermal demand in order to make it more compliant with the heat ...production) is significantly less widespread. Various attempts can be found in the literature concerning thermal demand modification in district heating, despite often researchers working on this topic are not fully aware of the other research activities also because various names are used to identify similar techniques. This paper represents the first survey on the use demand side application in district heating networks. The review clarifies the terminology and the stages for implementing demand side management to district heating network. Simulations and real applications are both considered in the review, including direct and indirect demand side management (demand response). Demand side management is found to be a great technique for district heating management. Various works show that the following benefits can be achieved: peak shaving up to 30%, doubled load factor, reduction of primary energy needs up to 5%, emission and cost reduction up to 10%. This clearly leads to significant cost and emission reduction, contributing to the decarbonization of urban areas.
•The first review on demand side management (DMS) in thermal networks.•Terminology is the first obstacle for knowledge diffusion in this field.•Advantages, steps for implementations and available analyses are discussed.•Various experimental tests and simulations have been performed up to now.•Benefits achievable by DSM are up to: 30% peaks, −10% costs, −5% emissions.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P.; Peri, Giovanni
Journal of the European Economic Association,
February 2012, Volume:
10, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
"This paper calculates the effects of immigration on the wages of native US workers of various skill levels in two steps. In the first step we use labor demand functions to estimate the elasticity of ...substitution across different groups of workers. Second, we use the underlying production structure and the estimated elasticities to calculate the total wage effects of immigration in the long run. We emphasize that a production function framework is needed to combine own-group effects with cross-group effects in order to obtain the total wage effects for each native group. In order to obtain a parsimonious representation of elasticities that can be estimated with available data, we adopt alternative nested-CES models and let the data select the preferred specification. New to this paper is the estimate of the substitutability between natives and immigrants of similar education and experience levels. In the data-preferred model, there is a small but significant degree of imperfect substitutability between natives and immigrants which, when combined with the other estimated elasticities, implies that in the period from 1990 to 2006 immigration had a small effect on the wages of native workers with no high school degree (between 0.6% and +1.7%). It also had a small positive effect on average native wages (+0.6%) and a substantial negative effect (-6.7%) on wages of previous immigrants in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Längsschnitt. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1990 bis 2006.
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BFBNIB, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial ...electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and −
0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020.
► Estimated output and price elasticities of 0.15 and -0.16 respectively. ► Estimated upward sloping UEDT (i.e. energy using) but at a decreasing rate. ► Predicted Turkish industrial electricity demand between 97 and 148 TWh in 2020.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
We consider the invertibility (injectivity) of a nonparametric nonseparable demand system. Invertibility of demand is important in several contexts, including identification of demand, estimation of ...demand, testing of revealed preference, and economic theory exploiting existence of an inverse demand function or (in an exchange economy) uniqueness of Walrasian equilibrium prices. We introduce the notion of "connected substitutes" and show that this structure is sufficient for invertibility. The connected substitutes conditions require weak substitution between all goods and sufficient strict substitution to necessitate treating them in a single demand system. The connected substitutes conditions have transparent economic interpretation, are easily checked, and are satisfied in many standard models. They need only hold under some transformation of demand and can accommodate many models in which goods are complements. They allow one to show invertibility without strict gross substitutes, functional form restrictions, smoothness assumptions, or strong domain restrictions. When the restriction to weak substitutes is maintained, our sufficient conditions are also "nearly necessary" for even local invertibility.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Wind and solar power have experienced rapid cost declines and are being deployed at scale. However, their output variability remains a key problem for managing electricity systems, and the ...implications of multi-day to multi-year variability are still poorly understood. As other energy-using sectors are electrified, the shape and variability of electricity demand will also change. We develop an open framework for quantifying the impacts of weather on electricity supply and demand using the Renewables.ninja and DESSTINEE models. We demonstrate this using a case study of Britain using National Grid's Two Degrees scenario forwards to 2030.
We find the British electricity system is rapidly moving into unprecedented territory, with peak demand rising above 70 GW due to electric heating, and intermittent renewable output exceeding demand as early as 2021. Hourly ramp-rates widen by 50% and year-to-year variability increases by 80%, showing why future power system studies must consider multiple years of data, and the influence of weather on both supply and demand. Our framework is globally applicable, and allows detailed scenarios of hourly electricity supply and demand to be explored using only limited input data such as annual quantities from government scenarios or broader energy systems models.
•Electricity supply and demand are becoming increasingly weather-dependent.•We demonstrate a globally-applicable framework using high-resolution open-source data.•Britain could expect dramatic changes to its electricity system in the near-term future.•2030 sees net negative demand days while nuclear baseload is severely squeezed.•Heat electrification could see peak demand increase by 20% in 15 years.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Over the past decade, several countries across all regions, income groups and procurement methods have been unable to secure sufficient BCG vaccine supply. While the frequency of stock-outs has ...remained rather stable, duration increased in 2014–2015 due to manufacturing issues and attracted the attention of national, regional and global immunization stakeholders. This prompted an in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics aiming to characterize supply risks. This analysis is unique as it provides a global picture, where previous analyses have focused on a portion of the market procuring through UN entities. Through literature review, supplier interviews, appraisal of shortages, stock-outs and historical procurement data, and through demand forecasting, this analysis shows an important increase in global capacity in 2017: supply is sufficient to meet forecasted BCG vaccine demand and possibly buffer market shocks. Nevertheless, risks remain mainly due to supply concentration and limited investment in production process improvements, as well as inflexibility in demand. Identification of these market risks will allow implementation of risk-mitigating interventions in three areas: (1) enhancing information sharing between major global health actors, countries and suppliers, (2) identifying interests and incentives to expand product registration and investment in the BCG manufacturing process, and (3) working with countries for tighter vaccine management.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
We examine how different characteristics of product demand and market impact the relative sales volume in the forward and spot markets for a commodity whose aggregate demand is uncertain. In a ...setting where either the forward contracts are binding quantity commitments between buyers and suppliers or the forward production takes place before the uncertainty in demand is resolved, we find that a combination of factors that include market concentration, demand risk, and price elasticity of demand will determine whether a commodity will be sold mainly through forward contracts or in the spot market. Previous findings in the literature show that when participants are risk neutral, the ratio of forward sales to spot sales is a function of market concentration alone; also, the lower the concentration, the higher this ratio. These findings hold under the assumption that demand is either deterministic or, if demand is uncertain, all production takes place after uncertainty is fully resolved and production plans can be altered instantaneously and costlessly. In our setting, however, we find that even a low level of demand risk can reverse the nature of supply in a highly competitive (low concentration) market, by shifting it from predominantly forward-driven to predominantly spot-driven supply. In markets with high concentration, the price elasticity of demand will determine whether the supply will be predominantly spot-driven or forward-driven. Our analysis suggests various new hypotheses on the structure of supply in commodity markets.
This paper was accepted by Martin Lariviere, operations management.
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BFBNIB, CEKLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract The Second Strategic Objective of the Global Vaccine Action Plan, “ individuals and communities understand the value of vaccines and demand immunization as both their right and ...responsibility ”, differs from the other five in that it does not focus on supply-side aspects of immunization programs but rather on public demand for vaccines and immunization services. This commentary summarizes the work (literature review, consultations with experts, and with potential users) and findings of the UNICEF/World Health Organization Strategic Objective 2 informal Working Group on Vaccine Demand, which developed a definition for demand and indicators related to Strategic Objective 2. Demand for vaccines and vaccination is a complex concept that is not external to supply systems but rather encompasses the interaction between human behaviors and system structure and dynamics.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
•A mixed-integer nonlinear nonconvex model is developed for the EVFS&TP problem.•The nonlinear elastic demand is incorporated.•Vehicle relocation and personnel assignment are considered in the ...EVFS&TP problem.•An efficient global optimization algorithm is proposed.
This study proposes an interesting electric vehicle fleet size and trip pricing (EVFS&TP) problem for one-way carsharing services by taking into account the necessary practical requirements of vehicle relocation and personnel assignment. The EVFS&TP problem aims to maximize the profit of one-way carsharing operators by determining the electric vehicle fleet size, trip pricing, and strategies of vehicle relocation and personnel assignment subject to the elastic demand for the one-way carsharing services. A mixed-integer nonlinear and nonconvex programming model is first built for the EVFS&TP problem. By exploiting the unique structure of the original built model, a mixed-integer convex programming model is subsequently developed. An effective global optimization method with several outer-approximation schemes is put up to find the global optimal or ε-optimal solution to the EVFS&TP problem. A case study based on a one-way carsharing operator in Singapore is conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model and solution method and further analyse the impact of demand, the degree of demand variation, the fixed operational cost of the vehicles as well as payment for personnel on the performance of the one-way carsharing services.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
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