Population aging is a typical feature of the change of population age structure in many developed countries at present, and the resulting family economic burden is an important factor causing debt ...risk. This paper uses the sample data of 33 economies of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) from 1992 to 2021 to study the impact of population age structure on household debt risk and its mechanism. The study found that: First, The rising proportion of the elderly population and the elderly dependency ratio have significantly increased the household debt levels, Population aging can increase the risk of household debt by affecting the pension level, total factor productivity and worker share; second, After the economy has suffered from economic fluctuations, The impact of population aging on household debt risk has changed from nonsignificant to positively significant, Show that the economic crisis has reduced household income levels, It weakens the family's solvency; third, With the relatively sound social security system in developed economies, Higher levels of national income, As a result, the aging population has a weak effect on household debt risk. Fourth, human capital investment can alleviate the negative impact of population aging to a certain extent. The reason is that the improvement of education level will improve the living conditions of families and enhance residents' awareness of independent old-age security. The conclusions of this paper have important policy implications for deeply exploring the social consequences of aging economy and reasonably YESling the spillover of household debt risk.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This study comprehensively investigated the impacts of demographic structure on CO2 emissions in China at the national level and the regional level for the first time. Panel cointegration modeling ...was employed to test the long-run relationships between CO2 emissions and six demographic structure variables, namely, dependency ratio, sex ratio, higher education ratio, industrial employment ratio, urbanization ratio, and average household size. The fully modified ordinary least squares method was then applied to estimate the long-run elasticity of CO2 emissions for the six demographic structure variables. The results suggested that long-run relationships between CO2 emissions and demographic structure existed at both the national level and the regional level. Dependency ratio was found to exert negative effects on CO2 emissions in China and its three sub-regions. Positive associations between sex ratio and CO2 emissions were revealed to exist in China and West China, and CO2 emissions elasticity for sex ratio was relatively high in West China. Higher education ratio had a positive effect on CO2 emissions in East China. Industrial employment ratio was found to positively correlate with CO2 emissions in China, East China, and Central China. Urbanization ratio was demonstrated to increase CO2 emissions at the national level and the regional level, and CO2 emissions elasticity for urbanization ratio decreased from West China to Central China, and then to East China. Negative correlations between average household size and CO2 emissions were detected at both the national level and the regional level. Based on the findings of this study, several practical recommendations were proposed, including optimizing age structure, promoting gender equality, advocating low-carbon lifestyles and low-carbon consumption patterns, promoting industrial upgrading and industrial structure optimization, building low-carbon cities and less carbon-intensive public infrastructure systems, and improving residential energy efficiency.
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•The impacts of the demographic structure on CO2 emissions in China were estimated.•Dependency ratio and average household size had negative effects on CO2 emissions.•Urbanization ratio exerted a positive impact on CO2 emissions.•The impacts of other independent variables on CO2 emissions differed across regions.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
•This paper develops a framework for urban heat prevention, mitigation and adaptation.•Air-conditioning systems are the dominant cooling facility in both work and living environments.•Urban planning ...and design for heat resilient cities is the most urgent intervention.•50% of the respondents preferred collaborative payment among government, developers, and owners for heat resilient infrastructure.•Heat-related responses and actions towards urban heat challenges were dependent demographic factors and their exposure, habit formation and behavior change, social acceptance.
This study investigates public participation in heat impact reduction by analysing adaptive behaviours, familiarity with urban heat island (UHI) and cooling strategies, the perceived urgency of heat impact actions and citizen's willingness to pay through a questionnaire survey in Chongqing, China. The results indicate that air-conditioning systems are the dominant cooling facility in both work and living environments. Respondents had a moderately familiar understanding of several cooling strategies such as urban vegetation, shading devices, water-based artificial facilities, urban design for shading and ventilation and water bodies. Familiarity with innovative materials and techniques for pavements, roofs and façades was less than moderate. Urban planning and design for heat resilient cities was thought to be the most urgent intervention, followed by the establishment of temporary cooling facilities. Most respondents indicated that cost-sharing mechanisms for urban heat prevention and control systems should at least include the government, whilst 50% of the respondents preferred collaborative payment among government, developers, and owners. Only 41.6% of the interviewees expressed their willingness to pay, with a share varying between <20 and >80 RMB. A conservative estimate indicated that there could be an average payment of 45.95 RMB and 19.10 RMB among the 234 respondents who were willing to pay and all 562 respondents regardless of willingness, respectively. Respondents’ heat-related responses and actions towards urban heat challenges were dependent on a wide range of factors like gender, age, education, economic status, health, exposure, habit formation and behavior change, social acceptance, etc. Moreover, such factors could interact with each other affecting public behavior with different weights. Overall, this study increases our understanding of people's perceptions and proactiveness in reducing urban heat and provides guidance for decision-makers towards a novel user-aware approach to the implementation of urban heat prevention, adaptation, and mitigation strategies.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
In the face of rapid demographic transitions, Sub-Saharan African countries stand at a critical juncture where the potential for harnessing a demographic dividend to fuel economic growth is immense. ...This demographic shift presents both challenges and opportunities, with the right investments in health, education, and employment, countries can turn the growing youth population into a powerful engine for development, driving substantial and sustainable economic progress across the region. This study examines the demographic structure effect on economic growth in the context of structural changes in 26 sub-Saharan African countries. Using data from 1992 to 2019 in the PMG-ARDL, FMOLS, and DOLS estimates, we find that demographic structure has a positive influence on economic growth in the long run, which occurs through effective structural change, that is, structural changes that occur with an increase in labor productivity growth. Indeed, our results show that structural changes are relevant in transforming African youth debt into demographic dividends.
Bizans döneminde piskoposluk merkezi olan Antalya Kaleiçi
Panaghia Kilisesi
, câmiye dönüştürüldüğü XVI. yüzyılın başlarına kadar Hristiyan cemaatinin ibadetine açık kaldı. Kilise, Sultan II. ...Bayezid’in emriyle câmiye çevrildikten sonra
Câmi-i Cedid (Yeni Câmii)
adını almıştı. Ne var ki İslam egemenliği döneminde uzun süre kullanılan ve Rum nüfusun meskûn olduğu bir semtte bulunan kilisenin câmiye dönüştürülmesi, kentin demografik yapısında yaşanan değişimin de etkisiyle bir süre sonra cemaatler arası çekişmelere neden oldu.
Panaghia Kilisesi
câmiye dönüştürüldükten sonra yaklaşık dört asır boyunca ibadethane işlevi görmüş, XIX. yüzyılın sonunda yanarak tahrip olmuş, daha sonra da terk edilmiştir. Bu makale
Panaghia Kilisesi
’nin ve dönüştürüldükten sonraki adıyla
Câmi-i Cedid
’in Osmanlı dönemindeki dönüşümünü ve terk edilmesiyle sonuçlanan sürecin nedenlerini anlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda konuya ilişkin mevcut literatür eleştirel bir analize tabi tutulmuş, tarihi kaynaklar yeniden değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca, kaynakların yetersiz olduğu koşullarda, yapının kentin
dinî manzara
’sı içindeki yerinden ve kentin nüfus yapısından hareketle câminin tarihi ve ona atfedilen önem yorumlanmaya çalışılmıştır.
Vitex doniana Sweet est une espèce forestière connue pour son importance socio-économique en raison de ses utilisations alimentaires, thérapeutiques et culturelles. Elle est actuellement menacée de ...disparition du fait des fortes pressions anthropiques qui nécessitent des mesures afin d’assurer sa gestion durable. La présente étude visait à évaluer l’état des populations de l’espèce dans trois types d’utilisation des terres correspondant à différentes intensités de perturbations anthropiques, à savoir les aires protégées, les zones pastorales et les zones de culture. À base d’un échantillonnage stratifié et orienté, 82 placettes de différentes tailles ont été installées en fonction de l’habitat considéré. Les données collectées ont concerné la hauteur totale et le diamètre du tronc à 1,30 m du sol des arbres de l’espèce. Les juvéniles ont été dénombrés, leur hauteur mesurée. Le mécanisme de régénération a été déterminé par excavation des juvéniles. L’état sanitaire des arbres a été évalué sur la base de la présence/absence d’infestation et de trace d’exploitation. Les résultats montrent une influence significative (p < 0,05) du type d’utilisation des terres sur la densité des individus, le diamètre moyen du tronc et l’état sanitaire des arbres. La densité des adultes était 3,35 et 2,49 fois respectivement plus élevée dans les zones pastorales et les aires protégées que dans les zones de culture (5,44 ± 2,80 arbres/ha). La régénération dans les aires protégées (43,83 ± 7,65 ind./ha) était 1,27 et 2,61 fois supérieure à celle de la zone pastorale et les zones de culture, respectivement. Les distributions en classe de diamètre présentent une allure en cloche pour les zones pastorales, en structure erratique pour les zones de cultures et en asymétrie positive dans les aires protégées. Le rejet de souche et le drageonnage sont les modes préférentiels de reproduction végétative de l’espèce. Plus de 90 % des individus rencontrés sont affectés par l’exploitation humaine, à savoir le prélèvement des feuilles par élagage des branches et la récolte de l’écorce et des racines. Nos résultats suggèrent un renforcement des mesures de protection de l’espèce et une meilleure valorisation de ses produits afin d’assurer sa conservation.
In context of global change, biodiversity loss poses a serious problem in the Mediterranean basin. In Algeria, degradation problems (logging, deforestation, bush fires and agriculture) affect ...vegetation. Knowledge of vegetation characteristics is necessary to manage disturbed areas. That is why this study focused on demographic structure of main species of Ouled Bechih forest (Quercus canariensis and Quercus suber). On eight plots representing this forest of 900 m2, chosen at random, dendrometric and phytosociological parameters are collected. Results obtained reveal a total specific richness of 41 species. Principal families are Asteraceae (21.95%) and Fabaceae (7.32%). Average woody density is 154 individuals/ha with an average basal area of 27.33 m2/ha. Variance analysis shows that there is a high significant difference between the dendrometric parameters (p<0.001). Diameter and height structures are consistent with Weibull distribution. These structures indicate that trees are moderately stable with predominance of large diameter individuals. Results obtained will allow monitoring the vegetation dynamics and will help foresters to put in place a management plan to preserve this forest.
The working-age population is an essential driver of economic growth that facilitates industrial growth, trade, and urbanization, but its impression on environmental quality is under-researched. This ...study proposes a novel framework to estimate the impact of demographic structure, industrial growth, and urbanization on two indicators of the environment (CO2 & Ecological footprints) in seven South Asian countries (SAARC) over 1985–2016 employing “Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT)” framework. The results showed the variables have “cross-sectional dependence” and panel heterogeneity. Similarly, the Pedroni, Kao & Westerlund tests indicated the cointegration relationship between the models' chosen variables. The long-run empirical estimates imply that the linear term of industrial growth is negative. The quadratic term is positive, thus supporting the U-shaped Kuznets phenomenon in the SAARC countries. Similarly, the working-age population (demographic structure), urbanization, and trade are detrimental environmental quality indicators. The causal linkages developed between the variables duly verified the causality between demographic structure, urbanization, and industrial growth with environmental degradation based on ecological footprints and CO2 emissions. These results for SAARC countries offer important policies for theorists, academicians, and practitioners.
•The comparison of environmental degradation based on ecological footprints and CO2 emissions is carried out.•Estimators which account for cross-sectional dependence, and heterogeneity are employed.•The impression of demographic structure, and urbanization on environment is negative.•The U-shaped industrial growth-based Kuznets curve is supported for the study.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine the long-run and short-run impact of demographic structure and human capital on the economic growth of Turkey.
Theoretical framework: The shift in ...demographic dividend which witness shifts in age structures, have led to positive prospects, which have resulted in the decline in rate of births leading to a decline in a country’s young dependent group, and subsequently caused an increase in the percentage of the workforce working-age numbers. In the past few decades, there has been a noticeable substantial shift in the population structure with regard to the percentage of the cohort of working age population in Turkey that could have consequences on the economy.
Design/Methodology/Approach: The annual time series data of Turkey for the time period 1990 to 2020 was employed through the utilization of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the association between the demographic structure, human capital and economic growth.
Findings: The results revealed that variations in the age structure, as manifested by the variations in the age cohorts of the working-age population, possess substantial favorable impacts on economic growth in the short and long run. The research also revealed that human capital impacts on economic growth in a positive way in the short run.
Research, practical & social implications: The study revealed that there is a substantial shift in the population fabric in Turkey. The ongoing changes that have transpired relatively rapidly might have significant economic consequences for the country in the future. Hence, it is therefore recommended that Turkey acquire demographic and economic measures which will stimulate the population to be intensively involved in the workforce. This is to garner the gains of demographic and educational returns as a major method towards the attainment of a high level of economic growth.
Originality/Value: This study utilizes working age population more broadly than most of the literature, using disaggregated age groups based on age. The key motivation for this is to ascertain the role of each age group, and its effect on economic growth.
We propose and study an epidemiological model on a social network that takes into account heterogeneity of the population and different vaccination strategies. In particular, we study how the ...COVID-19 epidemics evolves and how it is contained by different vaccination scenarios by taking into account data showing that older people, as well as individuals with comorbidities and poor metabolic health, and people coming from economically depressed areas with lower quality of life in general, are more likely to develop severe COVID-19 symptoms, and quicker loss of immunity and are therefore more prone to reinfection. Our results reveal that the structure and the spatial arrangement of subpopulations are important epidemiological determinants. In a healthier society the disease spreads more rapidly but the consequences are less disastrous as in a society with more prevalent chronic comorbidities. If individuals with poor health are segregated within one community, the epidemic outcome is less favorable. Moreover, we show that, contrary to currently widely adopted vaccination policies, prioritizing elderly and other higher-risk groups is beneficial only if the supply of vaccine is high. If, however, the vaccination availability is limited, and if the demographic distribution across the social network is homogeneous, better epidemic outcomes are achieved if healthy people are vaccinated first. Only when higher-risk groups are segregated, like in elderly homes, their prioritization will lead to lower COVID-19 related deaths. Accordingly, young and healthy individuals should view vaccine uptake as not only protecting them, but perhaps even more so protecting the more vulnerable socio-demographic groups.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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