Management in fire-prone ecosystems relies widely upon application of prescribed fire and/or fire surrogate (e.g., forest thinning) treatments to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function. ...Recently, published literature examining wildlife response to fire and fire management has increased rapidly. However, none of this literature has been synthesized quantitatively, precluding assessment of consistent patterns of wildlife response among treatment types. Using meta-analysis, we examined the scientific literature on vertebrate demographic responses to burn severity (low/moderate, high), fire surrogates (forest thinning), and fire and fire surrogate combined treatments in the most extensively studied fire-prone, forested biome (forests of the United States). Effect sizes (magnitude of response) and their 95% confidence limits (response consistency) were estimated for each species-by-treatment combination with two or more observations. We found 41 studies of 119 bird and 17 small-mammal species that examined short-term responses (≤4 years) to thinning, low/moderate- and high-severity fire, and thinning plus prescribed fire; data on other taxa and at longer time scales were too sparse to permit quantitative assessment. At the stand scale (<50 ha), thinning and low/moderate-severity fire demonstrated similar response patterns in these forests. Combined thinning plus prescribed fire produced a higher percentage of positive responses. High-severity fire provoked stronger responses, with a majority of species possessing higher or lower effect sizes relative to fires of lower severity. In the short term and at fine spatial scales, fire surrogate forest-thinning treatments appear to effectively mimic low/moderate-severity fire, whereas low/moderate-severity fire is not a substitute for high-severity fire. The varied response of taxa to each of the four conditions considered makes it clear that the full range of fire-based disturbances (or their surrogates) is necessary to maintain a full complement of vertebrate species, including fire-sensitive taxa. This is especially true for high-severity fire, where positive responses from many avian taxa suggest that this disturbance (either as wildfire or prescribed fire) should be included in management plans where it is consistent with historic fire regimes and where maintenance of regional vertebrate biodiversity is a goal.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and ...boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power‐law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity in Europe. We further show a robust positive correlation between summer vapor pressure deficit and both maximum fire size (R2 = .19) and maximum burn severity (R2 = .12). Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by the end of the century. Our results suggest that climate change will challenge current fire management approaches and could undermine the ability of Europe's forests to provide ecosystem services to society.
Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades, but this trend may reverse under ongoing climate change. Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power‐law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity. We show a robust positive correlation between summer VPD and both maximum fire size and maximum burn severity. Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by 2100.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Fire protection measures are taken to prevent fires or to keep the resulting damage as low as possible. The statistical effectiveness of fire protection measures can be derived from a large number of ...fires that have already occurred. With the research paper presented here, such proof of effectiveness is rendered for certain specific fire protection measures, such as installed fire detection and fire alarm systems, fire extinguishing systems, smoke and heat exhaust systems, as well as according to the type of fire service. The investigation is based on a systematically collected database of 5,016 building fire interventions with 1,216 real fires by 29 fire services across Germany. The results can be used by applying engineering methods for quantitative risk analyses, within the scope of the risk-based performance level oriented planning of object-specific protection strategies. In this way, the performance level can be achieved effectively, flexibly and economically.
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CEKLJ, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Knowledge of fire behaviour is of key importance in forest management. In the present study, we analysed the spatial structure of forest fire with spatial point pattern analysis and inference ...techniques recently developed in the Spatstat package of R. Wildfires have been the primary threat to Galician forests in recent years. The district of Fonsagrada-Ancares is one of the most seriously affected by fire in the region and, therefore, the central focus of the study. Our main goal was to determine the spatial distribution of ignition points to model and predict fire occurrence. These data are of great value in establishing enhanced fire prevention and fire fighting plans. We found that the spatial distribution of wildfires is not random and that fire occurrence may depend on ownership conflicts. We also found positive interaction between small and large fires and spatial independence between wildfires in consecutive years.
•Wildfire spatial structure is studied by spatial point processes analysis.•Spatial interaction between different types of wildfires is tested.•Homogeneous and inhomogeneous tests for complete spatial randomness are compared.•Bootstrap is used for bandwidth selection in the kernel estimate of the intensity.•Importance of fire risk for forest management planning is highlighted.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
► Using multiple GCMs and scenarios we anticipate significant increases in global fire season severity this century. ► Fire season length is expected to increase by more than 20days for high latitude ...northern regions by the end of the century. ► Larger and more intense fires are expected in a future warmer world. ► Fire management will be even more challenging will these increases in fire activity.
We used Cumulative Severity Rating (CSR), a weather-based fire danger metric, to examine the potential influence of climate change on global fire season severity. The potential influence of climate change on fire season length was also addressed. We used three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios to calculate the CSR and fire season length for mid-century (2041–2050) and late century (2091–2100) relative to the 1971–2000 baseline. Our results suggest significant increases in the CSR for all models and scenarios. Increases were greatest (more than three times greater than the baseline CSR) for the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the century. Fire season length changes were also most pronounced at the end of the century and for northern high latitudes where fire season lengths will increase by more than 20days per year. The implications from this study are that fire seasons will be more severe in future and that conventional fire management approaches may no longer be effective.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
In any region affected, fires exhibit a strong seasonal cycle driven by the dynamic of fuel moisture and ignition sources throughout the year. In this paper we investigate the global patterns of fire ...seasonality, which we relate to climatic, anthropogenic, land-cover and land-use variables. Global, with detailed analyses from single 1°x 1° grid cells. We use a fire risk index, the Chandler burning index (CBI), as an indicator of the 'natural', eco-climatic fire seasonality, across all types of ecosystems. A simple metric, the middle of the fire season, is computed from both gridded CBI data and satellite-derived fire detections. We then interpret the difference between the eco-climatic and observed metrics as an indicator of the human footprint on fire seasonality. Deforestation, shifting cultivation, cropland production or tropical savanna fires are associated with specific timings due to land-use practices, sometimes largely decoupled from the CBI dynamics. Detailed time series from relevant locations provide comprehensive information about these practices and how they are adapted to eco-climatic conditions. We find a great influence of anthropogenic activities on global patterns of fire seasonality. The specificity of the main fire practices and their easy identification from global observation is a potential tool to support land-use monitoring efforts. Our results should also prove valuable in the development of a methodological approach for improving the representation of anthropogenic fire practices in dynamic global vegetation models.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Investigation of fires are useful tools for gathering experience and knowledge of how and why fires occur and why they develop as they do. Several tools for accident investigation that also are ...applicable for analysis of fires are available. Data from fires is valuable for different branches of the fire safety science and are also used in revisions of fire regulations. This paper describes the concept of accident investigation with focus on learning and presents how investigation from fires has been used as a valuable tool in Norwegian fire safety management. Examples of how learnings have improved the residential fire safety level in Norway over the last decades are described. Three different analyses of fatal fires over four decades have given knowledge about how and why residential fires start, and how the victims could be characterized. The fire fatality rate in Norway has decreased by 50% from 1970 until 2014, one of the reasons for this is believed to be implementation of several targeted fire safety measures over the years. Through fire investigations combined with research, new trends in society and their possible implications on fire safety can be uncovered and lead to a more proactive fire safety management.
•Fire accidents are useful case studies for many disciplines in fire safety science.•Investigation results have led to important revisions of fire safety regulations.•Learning from investigations have increased the fire safety level in Norway.•Learning from previous fires will also increase the awareness of new fire risks.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Non‐native, invasive grasses have been linked to altered grass‐fire cycles worldwide. Although a few studies have quantified resulting changes in fire activity at local scales, and many have ...speculated about larger scales, regional alterations to fire regimes remain poorly documented. We assessed the influence of large‐scale Bromus tectorum (hereafter cheatgrass) invasion on fire size, duration, spread rate, and interannual variability in comparison to other prominent land cover classes across the Great Basin, USA. We compared regional land cover maps to burned area measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2000–2009 and to fire extents recorded by the USGS registry of fires from 1980 to 2009. Cheatgrass dominates at least 6% of the central Great Basin (650 000 km²). MODIS records show that 13% of these cheatgrass‐dominated lands burned, resulting in a fire return interval of 78 years for any given location within cheatgrass. This proportion was more than double the amount burned across all other vegetation types (range: 0.5–6% burned). During the 1990s, this difference was even more extreme, with cheatgrass burning nearly four times more frequently than any native vegetation type (16% of cheatgrass burned compared to 1–5% of native vegetation). Cheatgrass was also disproportionately represented in the largest fires, comprising 24% of the land area of the 50 largest fires recorded by MODIS during the 2000s. Furthermore, multi‐date fires that burned across multiple vegetation types were significantly more likely to have started in cheatgrass. Finally, cheatgrass fires showed a strong interannual response to wet years, a trend only weakly observed in native vegetation types. These results demonstrate that cheatgrass invasion has substantially altered the regional fire regime. Although this result has been suspected by managers for decades, this study is the first to document recent cheatgrass‐driven fire regimes at a regional scale.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which ...have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a "fire deficit" or "fire surplus", respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012. We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that large-scale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems.
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FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
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